Welcome to our annual, casual fantasy playoff preview! Congratulations to the teams that made it into the playoff bracket:
This season has been one of our more competitive seasons. The 2nd seed fielded a tight competition between Jesse and PC, and we also saw nearly 6 teams marching in lockstep toward the final remaining spots in the playoffs.
Now, onto the playoff preview. The devil is in the details. The preview this year will consist of roster analysis, x-factors, and my personal predictions.
Each player on playoff rosters will be tiered into categories to reflect the unique makeup of each roster:
Superstars: players averaging over 20 ppg
All Stars: players averaging over 15 ppg
Role Players: players averaging over 10 ppg
ReleaseMe
Superstars: L. Jackson, C. McCaffrey
All Stars: D. Henry, T. Lockett
Role Players: C. Ridley, T. Boyd, E. Engram
Roster Makeup: Big Two
The superstar tier doesn’t tell the full story on Sammy’s duo, as Lamar and CMC average closer to 30 points per game, thanks to their dual threat ability:
- On rushing alone, L. Jackson averages 11.7 ppg, which is greater than the likes of J. Mixon and D. Montgomery.
- On receiving alone, C. McCaffrey averages 13.5 ppg, which is greater than the likes of O. Beckham and T. Boyd.
Lockett is also worth monitoring, after failing to surpass 6 points in the last 3 games. Lockett is on the field, so injury status is not a concern. The Seahawks passing game may be more rotational with J. Gordon, D. Moore, J. Brown taking a slice in three WR sets.
X-Factor: Calvin Ridley
With Henry nearing the superstar tier, the glaring, high ceiling X-factor is Ridley. Since the departure of Sanu, Ridley has been inching close to Julio’s level of workload, not only in volume of targets, but also deep targets that usually go to Julio.
Prediction: Reach the Finals
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Parris Hilton
Superstars: D. Watson
All Stars: L. Fournette, D. Hopkins
Role Players: J. Landry, G. Kittle, M. Gordon, D. Singletary, D. Westbrook
Roster Makeup: Takes a Village
Though no one player jumped off the page as a league winner, Gordon’s team got to the playoffs through consistent, solid contributions from top to bottom, thanks to the timely emergence of several role players to de facto alpha status:
Jarvis Landry has quietly earned 1A status in the Browns passing attack, seeing double digit targets in 5 of the last 6 games. Melvin Gordon also has the looks of 1A status in the Chargers rushing attack, seeing 20+ carries in 3 of the last 4 games. And Singletary has seen majority RB touches finally in the past 5 weeks.
X-Factor: Fournette in the Red Zone
For a team lacking superstar power, this team may be in need of explosive firepower. Fournette is the prime candidate to uplevel this team. Fournette’s TD regression has reached historic levels, as he has only scored 3 TD’s, despite averaging just over 23 touches per game. In other words, Fournette should be categorized as a superstar, if it wasn’t for bad TD luck.
Prediction: Lose in Semifinal
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Hyde Yo Chubb
Superstars: C. Godwin
All Stars: N. Chubb, J. Conner, T. Kelce
Role Players: D. Parker, L. Fitzgerald
Roster Makeup: High Floor Consistency
Paul Chung has made zero trades this year, opting to stay patient, and it has paid off with an easy path into the playoffs. His team boasts several high floor options, who each have steady, weekly roles in their offenses.
- Godwin has the ability to pop off on any given week with no fewer than six targets in nine straight games.
- Despite Cleveland running a two-back offense, Chubb still has over 24 touches per game in the last 5 games.
- Kelce has topped 60 yards in five straight games, hauling in three TDs along the way.
Monitoring Conner’s health has become a weekly appointment. If he can suit up, that would be a massive boost. When he plays, he averages 4 receptions per game.
X-Factor: Devante Parker Green Light
After grabbing 7 of 10 targets for 157 yards and two touchdowns, Parker has now seen at least 10 targets in four straight games. The volume is there, and Fitzmagic has no issues chucking the rock down the field. The green-lit matchups are there as well in the playoffs (NYJ, NYG, and CIN).
Prediction: Lose in First Round
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Knockn On Evans Door
Superstars: P. Mahomes
All Stars: A. Jones, A. Kamara, A. Hooper, C. Kupp, A. Cooper
Role Players: J. Jacobs, J. Crowder
Roster Makeup: All Star Weekend
Midseason, Danny’s team had several superstars, but due to slower finishes, the majority of them have dropped down a tier.
Still, while some teams fill out their depth with role players, Danny fills out his depth with all stars, who can reach 30 points on any given week, and there is optimism that his guys will regain mid-season elite form:
- Kamara’s snap share was the 2nd highest of the entire season in Week 13, and his lack of TD is more a product of odd game outcomes. The last time he scored was in week 3. Look for that to change in the playoffs.
- Kupp had a strong bounce-back performance, who had failed to top 55 yards or find the end zone in each of his last three contests. Kupp remains Goff’s favorite red zone target, despite Goff’s wild inaccuracies.
X-Factor: Packers Backfield Split
Jones saw an uptick in snaps as the Packers made an effort to get him more involved in the passing game (6 targets). But Williams isn’t going anywhere, seeing 42% snaps. How this split shakes out efficiency-wise could end up being lucrative for Jones, Williams, or both.
Prediction: Reach the Finals
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Revenge of the Charky
Superstars: D. Cook, R. Wilson, M. Thomas
All Stars: D. Chark
Role Players: G. Tate, Z. Ertz, M. Sanders, M. Williams
Roster Makeup: Big Three
Jesse’s fascination with the analogy of a phoenix rising from the ashes is apt. With one of the league’s lowest career win percentages, Jesse’s team is now poised to make the finals. At the QB/WR/RB slots, Jesse is not only armed with one of the best at each position (Wilson, Thomas, Cook), he also has the most superstars in the league. Their consistency is devastating:
- In Week 13, M. Thomas scored 10 points, which is the first time Thomas scored under 16 points.
- Cook has scored over 20 points in over 50% of his games.
- Wilson has exceeded 30 pass attempts in over 50% of his games. When he does, he averages over 25 points per game.
X-Factor: D.J. Chark — Star or Role Player
The Jags offense has struggled at times, and Chark with it. Chark has now posted under 50 receiving yards in three of the past four games after a strong start to the season. Chark’s ceiling is high, as he’s exceeded the 20 point mark three times this season. Will the benching of Foles be a positive development for Chark?
Prediction: Lose in Semifinal
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Vincent’s Team
Superstars: D. Prescotts
All Stars: D. Moore, S. Barkley
Role Players: M. Brown, J. Mixon
Roster Makeup: Savvy Starts
Vincent’s Team once had other owners laughing. Like the 2011 Mavs, every team wanted to face them in the playoffs, until they lost to the scrappy squad. Outside of Saquon, Vincent’s Team doesn’t flash the biggest stars, but he has made up for it with smart starts with the likes of Murray, Higbee, McKissic.
The tiers do not tell the entire story, as some players have emerged of late for Vincent’s Team to make a late surge into the playoffs:
- James Washington has been a revelation. Washington has now averaged 15.5 in his past five games, which are all star qualifying numbers. They aren’t flukey either, as his target average is solid at 5+ per game.
- D.J. Moore has actually been an superstar WR1 of late. Moore has now been averaging 103.4 yards per game over the last five. His fantasy average in that span is 21.2 points per game.
- Mixon has strung together several 17 point outings, and there are signals that it’s not slowing down. Mixon was targeted four times while running routes on 56% of dropbacks, so it appears the Bengals may intend to use Mixon as a three-down back going forward.
X-Factor: Deep Ball Threats
We’ve touched on the volatility of Vincent’s ancillary receivers in previous weeks. Robby and Hollywood just need one play to produce double digit outings. But if Darnold sees ghosts or Ravens move away from their vertical passing plays, then the floor could be goose eggs.
Prediction: Lose in First Round
