Congratulations to the first round winners (Gordon and Sammy)!
Quarterfinal Recap
We almost saw a Cinderella story materialize out of Vincent’s team, which featured savvy starts out of T. Higbee, R. Anderson, and a fully realized RB1 performance out of Joe Mixon. Vince needed Saquon, pre-draft consensus #1 pick, to have a blowup game. Riding off to the sunset on Saquon’s shoulders is an honorable way to go. Gordon’s team flashed solid performances from his very balanced roster (5 players surpassed 17 points).
Sammy’s X-factor (C. Ridley) had a terrific outing, posting 18.6 points. His Kicker and Defense lifted the team with a combined 26 points, which made his team too much to handle, especially when none of Paul Chung’s all-star caliber players (C. Godwin, N. Chubb, T. Kelce) surpassed 20 points.
Let’s spotlight a couple factors coming up in the semifinal round, as well as O/U to take relative to the Yahoo projections.
(6) Sammy vs. (2) Jesse
Roster Snapshot
Second Round Spotlights
- Lamar Jackson Quad Injury: Jackson didn’t participate in any drills during Monday’s practice, and he was spotted walking with a slight hitch. If Jackson is limited vs. Jets, it could put a damper on his ceiling. Remember: Jackson has generated 11 points per game off rushing alone. One reason not to worry — Fitzpatrick rushed for 65 yards against the Jets last week. Ryan Fitzpatrick is not known to be a speedster by any stretch of the imagination.
- Status of D.J. Chark: Chark had a nice bounce-back day. Chark has now reached 16 fantasy points in seven of 13 games this season. He is fantasy’s number 8 scoring wide receiver, and is a strong WR2 play any week. However, Chark was spotted leaving the locker room on a scooter (the one on the left):
- Battle between Eagles Tight Ends: Goedert has surpassed Ertz’ target share in two of the past five games. However, in that same span, Ertz has posted at least nine catches for 90 yards in four of those games. With Eagles receivers banged up, Wentz passes will funnel to these two guys. How the distribution of those passes play out could swing the matchup.
- Weapon of My Own Making: Jesse and Sammy pulled off a trade a couple weeks ago, where Sammy received C. Ridley & T. Cohen, and Jesse received G. Tate & M. Sanders. The Ridley injury is quite a swing in points in Jesse’s favor, and if J. Howard stays out, it could play a sizable advantage with Sanders as lead back.
Over/Under
- Tyler Lockett (Y! Projection: 68 receiving yards) — UNDER
Lockett’s fall from WR1 status seems legitimate. He is playing full sets of snaps, but is seeing a small target share. He now faces a stout Carolina pass defense (229 passing yards per game allowed). - Mike Williams (Y! Projection: 48 receiving yards) — OVER
Magic Mike has been performing up to WR2/3 standards of late, after scoring his first TD of the season. He should keep his receiving pace up against a sub-par Minnesota secondary that has given up double-digit production to multiple receivers in 4 of the last 5 weeks. - Christian McCaffrey (Y! Projection: 5 receptions) — OVER
In a game where the Panthers open as 5.5-point underdogs and have failed often historically against the Seahawks, expect McCaffrey to be fully involved as a receiver as they play from behind.
Prediction: Jesse to the Finals
With Jesse’s superstars fully healthy (R. Wilson, M. Thomas, D. Cook), I predict Jesse edges Sammy out by a slim margin in a very tight contest.
(1) Danny vs. (4) Gordon
Roster Snapshot
Second Round Spotlights
- Patrick Mahomes’ Hand: While X-rays show there is no break in his hand, it appears there is enough impact to pivot the Chiefs offense to the run game. This shift places a cloud over Mahomes’ explosive ceiling. Mahomes averaged 6.6 yards per attempt last week, well below the 8.3 average this season.
- Goodbye Immortal Gore: Singletary played a season-high snap share for the second straight week, so we are past solidifying him as a RB2. The matchup against Pittsburgh is more of a question mark: in the last 3 games, Steelers have allowed the fifth-lowest rushing total at 87.7 yards. Keep an eye on Singletary’s passing down role to mitigate their front seven, as he caught 6 of 8 targets last week.
- Kupp Runneth Under: The Rams appear to be using specific personnel for run vs. pass plays. The one receiver they trust in all formations: Woods. McVay has Kupp playing 29% snaps, while running routes on only 52% of Goff’s dropbacks. Both are season lows. Up next is a stout Dallas secondary, headed by Byron Jones.
- Amari vs. Ramsey: Amari will face Ramsey in shadow coverage. While Amari has been dealing with lower body injuries all season, it hasn’t impacted the bottom line. Cooper is still the top-6 fantasy receiver on a points per game basis.
- Bless ’Em: In light of news that Odell has been playing injured all season, it’s now no longer a surprise that Landry is the alpha receiver. The Cardinals have given up 18+ point games to receivers in the last 3 weeks. Landry should have the green light matchup.
Over/Under
- Aaron Jones (Y! Projections: 27 receiving yards) — OVER
Jones saw a season high 44 downfield yards thrown his direction the past week. That was his RB1 calling card midseason. The Bears defense has allowed reception totals to the following backs recently: Dalvin Cook (35 yds), Latavius Murray (31 yds), Miles Sanders (31 yds). - Dede Westbrook (Y! Projections: 4 receptions) — OVER
The probable loss of Chark should open up an abundance of underneath targets. Keelan Cole is unlikely to win in the downfield passing game, while Westbrook has shown to be a reliable slot weapon that can move the chains. - Austin Hooper (Y! Projections: 5 receptions) — OVER
While Hooper faces an intimidating 49ers defense, the loss of Ridley opens up plenty of safe targets to the TE. Hooper played 65% snaps in his first week coming off injury, and that number should only grow with depleted receivers. - L. Fournette (Y! Projections: 0.4 rushing TD) — OVER
I’m taking the OVER on everything. Fournette is due to score again. He leads the league in touch-to-TD ratio. On a per week basis, in the last 4 weeks, Oakland has given up 1.25 rushing TD’s.
Prediction: Gordon to the Finals
While Danny boasts several stars, there are several red light matchups that I predict will end up giving Gordon the edge.
