This season, our playoff guide will be brought to you by Rush Hour (1 & 2).
We had another exciting, nail-biter finish to the regular season. The play-in came down to an initially non-descript MNF double-header of TEN-MIA, NYG-GB: why do I have to hear Caleb cheer for Love and Dillon? Why is my pulse spiking when GB lines up in empty set formation? Why in the world isn’t Tua targeting Waddle after Hill got injured?
With the dust settled, we have our official 2023 playoff seeds:
To lead off, see where your team lands among the Rush Hour tiers below:
TIER 1: HEAVEN ON EARTH
1. VINCE’S TEAM (8–6)
BYE-Week Preview: Jefferson-QB
Vince greatly benefits from the BYE, giving Jefferson week 15 to figure out his starting QB (between Mullens and Dobbs).
In round 2 and beyond, Vince is primed to run the table thanks to the immense upside of his supporting cast — all 5 of Thielen, Mostert, Edwards, Dallas DST, and Achane have popped on FanDuel’s Milly Maker lineups. McBride has also crashed the overall TE1 competition: in Kyler’s starts, McBride is the TE1 overall in that span.
🩸Wipe Yourself Off, You’re Bleeding: Kupp
- In ’22, 45% of Kupp’s targets came from designed plays. In ’23, it’s 7%. McVay has re-schemed targets to fresher legs (Puka: 39%).
- Kupp’s path back to alpha-WR1 outcomes is connecting with Stafford on deeper targets than previous seasons.
👲🏾Cheap Suits: Mostert for $1 draft-day salary
Mostert is this year’s RB2 overall behind McCaffrey. As a floor, Mostert has scored at least 1 TD in 10 of 13 games played. As a ceiling, Mostert has 5 multi-TD games with 20+ points.
2. JESSE’S TEAM (8–6)
Round 1 Preview vs. Bode
Given the season Jesse has endured (from Higgins’ injuries, Garrett Wilson’s uncatchable targets, to the smallest loss margin of the season), Jesse could use heaven-on-earth relaxation. Look no further than round 1 featuring positive game scripts for his two running backs:
- Kyren Williams: Rams (-6.5) should grant Kyren plenty of goal-line looks. Kyren owns a massive 85% of rushes inside-the-5.
- Jahmyr Gibbs: Lions (-4.5) are rotating Gibbs and Montgomery drive-by-drive. Gibbs should have more opportunities than usual to get into the red zone, as long as Goff doesn’t Goff.
🩸Wipe Yourself Off, You’re Bleeding: Tua-Tyreek
The Tua-Tyreek stack faces its biggest challenge yet with Tyreek struggling through an ankle injury and playing decoy vs TEN. But the script of Tyreek’s previous games has looked dangerously similar — injured news blurb, followed by 2-TD notifications. If Tyreek sits, the points would swing in Waddle’s favor.
👲🏾 Cheap Suits: James Cook for $14 draft-day salary
Ever since Brady took over as Offensive Coordinator in week 11, Cook has been posting RB1 numbers (average: 17.7 ppg) as a favored target. His average target rate jumped up to 31% (vs 18% for the season) for 5.3 targets per game. Despite playing less than 55% of snaps, Cook is an active weapon.
In round 1, his passing game efficiency will face the likes of Cowboys hybrid LB/S Markquese Bell (PFF Grade: 🟩 84.9).
TIER 2: TWISTING TIGER
3. GORDON’S TEAM (10–4)
BYE-Week Preview: Taylor & Stroud Breather
While named “The Matrix”, Gordon has legitimate twisting tiger technique: his squad is the second highest scoring team, in large part due to Jonathan Taylor’s return and C.J. Stroud’s nuclear upside on *any* given drive.
The BYE week gives Gordon a critical breather for both stars: Taylor (thumb) and Stroud (concussion) have a chance at returning from injury to face the winner between Jesse & Bode. Based on the average L3W ppg between Jesse and Bode (141 ppg), Gordon’s path to the finals appears more difficult than the other bracket.
🩸Wipe Yourself Off, You’re Bleeding: Kincaid
- With Knox back, the Bills’ 12 personnel rate jumped back up to 31.1%, the highest rate since Week 3.
- In majority-11 personnel games, Kincaid averages 14.1 PPR points per game (vs. in games with majority 12 personnel: 4.43 points)
👲🏾Cheap Suits: Pittman for $7 draft-day salary
Many of us passed on acquiring Pittman — instead opting to offer $35+ for WR1’s that didn’t pan out. Under Minshew, Pittman has been demanding massive volume of targets, resulting in a WR6 overall finish in that span. In 6 of 8 weeks, Pittman has 10+ targets.
TIER 3: SOME APPLE?
4. SAMMY’S TEAM (8–6)
Round 1 Preview vs. Benny
After getting hit by injuries to key starters (Dell, Herbert, Keenan), the vibes with Sam’s team aren’t what they were mid-season. But careful biting into that apple — he still has dangerous weekly potential from his 4 Milly Makers, headlined by the FAAB Acquisition of the Year: Puka Nacua.
Puka could go berserk in round 1, facing a weak WAS secondary that has been torched all season. Also, Mullens’ TE target rate ranks high among QB’s, spelling Hockenson for a massive game vs. CIN, the league’s weakest fantasy defense vs. TE.
💀Wipe Yourself Off, You’re Dead: Herbert-Keenan
Update (12/13): Keenan Allen announced OUT (heel).
The loss of Herbert (to right-index finger injury) is a blow to one of the strongest QB-WR stacks in the game. While the ceiling is lowered, Keenan still generated a 37.5% target share from backup-QB Easton Stick.
🔭I Love Snoopy: Odell is back
After Andrews’ targets were vacated, Odell’s target rate leads not only the Ravens’ WR group, but also all WRs in the last 3 weeks. If only Sam held onto Lamar to stack!
5. BODE’S TEAM (8–6)
Round 1 Preview vs. Jesse
To beat Jesse, the Cowboys trio (Lamb-Pollard-Ferguson) needs to get fed in the shootout of the week vs. BUF (50.5 game total is highest in week 15 slate).
Since week 6: in games when Vegas projected totals over 44.5, the trio has averaged a combined total of 53.6 points.
🩸Wipe Yourself Off, You’re Bleeding: AOC-Davante
Over AOC’s starts, Adams has 4th most targets, 6th highest target rate. But less than 70% of his targets are catchable, while over 33% are contested targets. While the floor is ok, Davante has only surpassed 20 points once in that span.
👲🏾Cheap Suits: Purdy FA pickup
Purdy has been the QB2 in the last 4 weeks with 90.48 points, while scoring 21+ points in 4 of his last 5 games. He faces a pass friendly defense vs. ARI with the 4th highest game total (47.5) of the week.
TIER 4: G-14 CLASSIFIED
6. BENNY’S TEAM (8–6)
Round 1 Preview vs. Sammy
Benny faces Sam’s team, who has put his guns down (Herbert, Dell to IR; Keenan OUT) to fight like a man. But Benny has several guns up his sleeve for an upset:
- D. Swift faces a SEA defense that has allowed the 5th highest explosive run rate, the 6th-most missed tackles per attempt. That helps Swift’s cause for reaching the end zone. (No tush push please!)
- C. Olave faces a NYG defense that has utilized man coverage at the second-highest rate (41.4%) since week 8. Olave is top-5 in receiving grade vs. Man coverage.
🩸Wipe Yourself Off, You’re Bleeding: Carr-Olave Connection
- Carr is dealing with multiple afflictions from an AC joint sprain to three fractured ribs.
- Before these injuries: Olave was 76th in catchable target rate and 84th in target accuracy.
🔭I Love Snoopy: LaPorta at Home
Goff notoriously excels at home, and this week, he faces Denver at home. Each of LaPorta’s Milly Maker performances have been at home. Five of LaPorta’s six games this season with <10 fantasy points scored have come on the road.
