Each of us are vulnerable to spells of illusion about our own teams. Some more than others. The trade deadline is the last moment you can be refreshingly honest about your team’s championship prospects and actually do something about it in a significant way.
This segment will whisper some hard truths to some of you and your trade needs, leading up to Saturday’s deadline.
PC Needs More RAM
Whisper: “Your starter depth needs help”
PC’s team has been heavily reliant on a few S-rank heroes, mainly his Mahomes-Kelce stack and Kamara. Those three are some of this game’s best bets, but there will be a time where they won’t come through in an explosive way. (The Chiefs have the 5th most difficult rest of season schedule)
When that happens, it’s good to have starter depth to provide a solid floor. Unfortunately, the likes of PC’s other starters (L. Murray, A. Miller, N. Agholor) will not be sufficient on a down week.
PC should be looking for multiple-for-1 type offers to help stabilize the rest of his team.
Diversify KPOP Portfolio
Whispers: “Your running backs are TD-dependent”
It’s no secret that Theo is still looking for a RB; however, the rumor is…Theo is looking for 1:1 value. But in this economy, RB’s can only be had at a premium.
As such, Theo’s team has exercised contentment with his RB rotation, but looking beneath point totals, unlike his KPOP sauce, RB satisfaction is not guaranteed:
- Gurley has only scored in single digits twice this season, giving the image of a stable starter. However, Gurley’s 9 touchdowns make up a massive 40% of his season total points. That is 10% higher than the average RB1.
- In games spent trailing, Harris has been easily game scripted out of the picture (6.4 ppg). Without a lead, Harris is a strong bet to finish below double digits.
It would be wise to pay a premium (like Gurley + Claypool) to acquire an upgrade at the RB1 spot.
Golfing on Frozen Pond
Whispers: “Your RB’s could zero-out any week”
Ramon has been taking on a very relaxed approach to this fantasy football season by pre-gaming the draft with margaritas and now leisurely golfing as a hobby. When you’re sitting on an 8–2 record, life is zen.
But Ramon’s running backs all carry “frozen pond” risk of falling through any moment:
- Edwards-Helaire now has single-digit carries in three consecutive games. He was saved by a receiving TD, but the low usage adds weekly uncertainty. Even in games with large leads, Chiefs default to D. Williams or L. Bell to grind out the clock.
- Mostert and Carson both have injury issues with high chance of recurrence. And in light of multiple injuries within the same season, Shanahan is likely to resume a committee approach, while Pete is looking to lessen Carson’s workload with Collins showing burst against the Bills.
With BYE weeks coming to an end soon, the time might be running out on packaging two of his starters (think CEH + Cole -or- Carson + Boyd) for a team desperate for starters.
@CanGuardMike
Whispers: “Thomas is no longer a WR1 receiver”
After three consecutive duds in the books for Michael Thomas, it’s fair to wonder if this is the new normal. The Saints were far from a pass-heavy offense with Brees under center, but when Thomas has been frequently targeted, he has yielded very little fruit:
- 17 yards on five targets in Week 1
- 51 yards on six targets in Week 9
- 27 yards on seven targets in Week 10.
This could change with Winston now under center, in which case, there is a sell-window to recuperate something resembling 75% value.
With the decline of Fulgham and Slayton (as a result of Reagor and Shepard’s returns), Benny should be looking to trade Thomas for a RB1 or multiple upside WR2.
Dark Side of AJ Mania
Whispers: “Your ancillary receivers are on the cusp of ELO dropping to WR4 territory”
This whisper empathically applies to Hollywood and Jones (props though for picking him back up in Golladay’s absence).
Hollywood’s zero-floor potential is consistently showing in the Ravens’ sputtering offense. His 14 receiving yards in Week 10 wasn’t his season-low, or even his second-lowest total of the year.
Coupled with the steep decline of Jones as Golladay returns, AA has very risky bets at several different slots, while over-relying on AJ Brown’s smelling salts to awaken consistent scoring potential (30% of his production comes from TD’s).
AA has driven up the stock of his AJ duo off name and stubbornness alone, but it would be wise to explore splitting them up in 1-for-multiple type deals, namely at WR.
