Trick or Treat
Sometimes, you find a king-sized candy bar. But most times, you end up with a lot of crappy candy corn. This experience of peaks-and-valleys is embodied by these players:
Vince’s Justin Jefferson
Jefferson’s upside is stratospheric, as he is capable of ripping off 100+ yard games with 175, 103, and 166 yard outings. But with the Vikings ranking near the bottom in neutral pass play rate, the game needs to devolve in a hurry for Jefferson to capture the upside-WR2 profile, or else it’s candy corn (17.5 ppg in Losses vs. 9.7 ppg in Wins).
Josh’s Sammy Watkins
The Lizard King is the ultimate trick-or-treat. When Josh benches Watkins, he plays well. But when Josh starts him, he puts together subpar numbers:
- Week 1, Benched: 21.5 points
- Week 2, Started: 2.1 points
- Week 3, Benched: 13.2 points
- Week 4, Started: 6.3 points
Theo’s Diontae Johnson & Chase Claypool
On a week where Diontae said he would be a “go”, he had to check out due to hamstring concerns. But even when Diontae was on the field this week (77% snaps), Diontae took a backseat to Claypool (22% targets). With the way the Steelers are distributing targets, one of these receivers inevitably turns into a pumpkin. WR1 some weeks, WR0 other weeks — it’s anyone’s guess.
Should’ve Turned Back
This segment recaps start/sit, add/drop regrets.
Bode’s M. Valdes-Scantling Week 7 Start
Started MVS (0.90 pts) over Sterling Shepard (17.9 pts) → Loss to Josh
Josh’s team is a walking corpse, featuring fantasy has-been’s such as Gore and Burkhead. But in week 7, the lifeless being of his fantasy team won by a margin of 4.28 points. That margin could’ve easily been covered if Shepard was started over MVS, but fantasy gods punished me for taking Derrick Henry.
Kong’s Tennessee DST Week 8 Start
Started TEN (-1 pts) over PIT (18 pts) → Loss to Ramon
In the battle between our league’s top-2, the showdown turned out to be a bit of a dud with no team surpassing 115 points. But the biggest story turned out to be the DST matchup. With TEN netting negative points and Lamar throwing a pick-6, PIT DST would’ve earned Kong the number one seed and a near playoff lock, which his rental team sorely needs.
Caleb’s Drop of Cam Akers Week 8
Dropped Cam Akers for Jalen Richard
If Darrell Henderson’s thigh injury becomes a multi-week injury, Akers may have the opportunity to be the “league winner” that he’s been advertised to become. Unfortunately, that long awaited opportunity came on the week that Caleb dropped him for the perennial Naruto-Filler-Episode-esque Jalen Richard. Akers will go for more than Caleb’s total budget of $57 FAAB.
Walking on Broken Glass
You committed to these players, initially because of an optimistic projection. But now, moving forward means walking through painful fantasy outings:
AA’s Ezekiel Elliott
Alex initially pulled off a blockbuster trade for a mid-range RB1 (11 targets vs. ARI), but in return, he received David Montgomery LITE. We also get to see Caleb profit more than we can stomach.
Whether it’s DiNucci or Dalton at QB, this Cowboys offense seems intent on forcing Zeke to run uphill toward stacked boxes (52.63% rush attempts vs. stacked boxes, 2nd highest in week 8).
Gordon’s Jonathan Taylor
J.T. was looking like a league-winner in week 2, instantly upgrading to potential top-5 RB1 territory. Gordon’s team was shaping up to be every Zero-RB drafter’s dream. However, since then, the Colts backfield is devolving into a 3-headed committee with Wilkins returning from the dead. Wilkins and Hines combined snaps (50.6%) have been sneakily outpacing Taylor’s (47.8%) for the past 4 weeks.
Danny’s CeeDee Lamb
It wasn’t that long ago when CeeDee Lamb was deservedly championed as an upside WR2. Even a week ago, Lamb led the league in receiving yards out of the slot, and that was after two weeks with Dalton as starter. The rookie is unreal. However, like Zeke, the DiNucci and Dalton face hugger is sucking out ceiling upside. Lamb is also seeing less time on the field with a puzzling season-low 48% snaps the past week.
