At the half-way point, we look at the league through the mid-season scouter. After simulating 2000+ seasons, the projections machine read out the following results:
- Projected End of Season Seed (%)
- Power Meter
See below for your team’s projections, and a blurb on which of your players will defy the machine (for better or for worse).
Machine Rankings
1. Benny’s Team
Season Record: 5–2
Playoff Odds: 98%
Anti-Projection Player: Mike Williams
Mike finally had his dormant alpha-WR1 state unlocked this season. But before the BYE, Mike Williams’ knee was feeling tight, resulting in a 36% snap rate. He already has a volatile health history, so if his health were to trend south, Benny’s heavy favorite odds to finish 1st could see a similar downward trend.
2. Gordon’s Team
Season Record: 5–2
Playoff Odds: 90%
Anti-Projection Player: Javonte Williams
Broncos have fallen to 3–4, and could lose the next couple games. The FO might use their next string of games to give the rookie more looks in the snap range of 60–65%. Javonte has double-digit broken tackles and is 4th in the league in evasion rate. Any uptick in usage could give Gordon’s team the boost it needs to make a run for the 1-seed, especially with Montgomery out.
3. Theo’s Team
Season Record: 3–4
Playoff Odds: 58%
Anti-Projection Player: Leonard Fournette
Uncle Lenny is in full-force of late:
- Fournette ranks 5th in the league in carries inside-the-5
- Having scored zero TD’s in weeks 1–4, Fournette scored an enormous 4 TD’s in weeks 5–7
If he continues finishing TB’s offensive drives as the undisputed goal-line back, Theo has a lethal triple-RB unit (Ekeler + Henderson + Fournette) that should counter the tough scheduling luck he’s faced so far.
4. Bode’s Team
Season Record: 5–2
Playoff Odds: 46%
Anti-Projection Player: Julio Jones
This team has been blessed with the league’s weakest schedule, while averaging the 3rd lowest points per week. Julio’s decline should tank this team’s projections. Julio only ran routes on 60% of drop-backs with an eye toward health for the playoffs.
5. PC’s Team
Season Record: 4–3
Playoff Odds: 41%
Anti-Projection Player: Russell Wilson
With one of the lower points totals among the top seeds, PC will likely need h2h wins to secure a safe playoff spot. The return of Russell Wilson would help: Metcalf currently ranks 59th in red zone targets, among the likes of Randall Cobb and Bryan Edwards. Russ should drive the offense closer to the red zone than Geno, who is barely getting past the 50 yard line.
6. AA’s Team
Season Record: 3–4
Playoff Odds: 24%
Anti-Projection Player: Brandin Cooks
This squad is also a dark horse to sneak into the 4th seed, thanks to some boom weeks from Cooks. Cooks’ target share (32%) has remained constant regardless of QB. But the outcomes have been vastly different:
- With Davis Mills: 12.1 points per game
- With Tyrod: 20.5 points per game
This week, Tyrod returned to practice, giving AA back the WR1 diamond-in-the-rough to challenge the projections.
7. Vince’s Team
Season Record: 2–5
Playoff Odds: 16%
Anti-Projection Player: Terry McLaurin
Scary Terry’s season has been trick-or-treat with three WR1 finishes (vs. four WR3/4 weeks). After WFT lost its top receiving options (Logan Thomas and Curtis Samuel), defenses know where the ball is going:
However, Terry is still a beast: among players with double-digit contested targets, he has a top-10 contested catch rate %. Vince’s team is currently sitting close to top-3 seed, so more WR1 Scary Terry should prove the projections machine wrong.
8. Kong’s Team
Season Record: 3–4
Playoff Odds: 23%
Anti-Projection Player: Antonio Brown
Assuming that Theo takes the 3rd seed, the projections like Kong’s team as the favorite to sneak into the 4th seed with points scored, in large part due to Antonio Brown. His 4th-seed odds are the second-highest at 18%.
Brown is 4th in the league at Targets Per Route Run, so whenever he is on the field, Brady is clearly favoring him over Evans and Godwin. Kong needs him to regain full health, as he’s currently dealing with a nagging ankle sprain.
9. Sam’s Team
Season Record: 2–5
Playoff Odds: 3%
Anti-Projection Player: Marvin Jones Jr.
MJJ somehow finds his way into fantasy relevance every year, and at the ripe age of 31, he hasn’t shown signs of slowing down. With Chark being out for the season, MJJ could be the WR upgrade Sam needs to prove the readings wrong.
MJJ has been drawing double-digit targets and steadily finding his connection with Lawrence: there have been 7 Pass TD with a completion probability below 20% this season — Lawrence & Jones Jr. have been responsible for 2 of them.
10. Jesse’s Team
Season Record: 2–5
Playoff Odds: 2%
Anti-Projection Player: Ja’Marr Chase
Ja’Marr Chase has league-leading 687 receiving yards against single coverage, which is 306 yards more than any other WR. His most-receiving yards odds has bumped from +3500 to +800. Out of all the trades this season, Ja’Marr has the best shot at single-handedly significantly improve a team’s odds.
