Now that we are past the Q1 mark, let’s take a look at where your team stands among the various tiers:
Tier 1: Warring Contenders
Battling for the top spot
1. Alex (4–1)
Digglet has a lot of friends to sustain his position at the top tier. His core boasts prolific TD utilization profiles. Hurts moonlights as the league’s top goal-line back (most carries inside-the-5). Kelce and Diggs are top-4 in red zone targets and catch rates. Saquon owns majority of the Giant’s red zone touches.
On top of that, AA has three upside dragon eggs that can break him away into a tier of his own:
- K. Walker: With Penny’s season-ending injury, Walker steps into a Pete Carroll (!) high-volume pass attack that suits his pass-catching strengths. RB1 upside from here on out.
- A. Mattison: Shoulder re-injury rates are high, and Cook is no stranger to them. If he were to miss time, Mattison becomes a RB1.
- M. Thomas: He should be returning from injury soon as a WR2 with WR3 floor.
2. Tomson (5–0)
In a year where RB1’s have seen a decline in production, Tomson had the eye to draft 2 of the top-6 running backs in PPR points (Chubb, Henry). They’re a lock for 40 combined points per week.
The real difference makers are the Seattle stack. Both could explode for points at any given week because of their splash play ability. Among all non-QB players: Metcalf ranks 4th (37.2 points) and Lockett ranks 6th (35.2 points) in PPR points generated on throws 15+ yards downfield.
AJ Dillon is Tomson’s one dragon egg. While offering weekly flex production, Dillon could hatch into a RB1, if anything were to happen to his running mate.
Tier 2: The Hand
Power-adjacent, but missing assets to claim the throne
3. Benny (4–1)
Benny’s team has explosive potential. But it’s needed the Faith of all Seven stars to align. Can Benny’s weapons time their boom weeks?
- DeVonta Smith & Amari Cooper can boom into WR1 weekly finishes. In week 3, both ranked among top-7 in WR scoring. In week 5, both ranked among top-12. However, they showed they can crater on any given week. (Each have multiple weeks of finishing with < 5 points).
- Lamar Jackson has flashed his usual elite traits and usage (10 rushes per game). But he only has 2 TD’s to show for it. His lack of red zone carries (6 vs. Hurts’ 24) dropped him to several QB2 finishes — he has averaged <15 points the last 2 weeks.
As The Hand, Benny’s weakness is his RB2 spot. Carter and Etienne are talented backs stuck in committees with middling snap rates. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Benny were to swing a trade for an upgrade.
Tier 3: Wildly Dangerous
Wide range of outcomes
4. Jesse (3–2)
Jesse’s squad has untapped potential (i.e. Kyler), but week-winning questions are deciding whether he’s a contender or pretender:
- A. Brown: DeVonta has out-targeted the “alpha” twice in the last 3 weeks
- R. Bateman: His route participation has yet to hit the 90% mark. Is that due to injury, or is Devin freaking Duvernay more trusted?
- Flex spot: Jeff Wilson has been serviceable as a RB2 (15 ppg). But what happens when Elijah returns after week 9? Can Doubs and Woods fill in and rise above their tepid passing environments (GB and TEN are bottom-third in pass rate)?
5. Vince (2–3)
Vince’s Team is 📈 after averaging 174.5 points the past 2 weeks. During this stretch, Vince hasn’t even started his newfound-RB2 (Mostert). With upward trending ancillary pieces around his prolific Vikings stack (J. Jefferson + D. Cook), Vince’s Team is primed for even bigger weeks, starting with this upcoming matchup vs. Gordon’s “Team”.
6. Caleb (2–3)
Caleb’s squad has two counterbalancing trajectories that determine which tier he’ll land in the upcoming weeks:
- Dolphins Stack 📉
Miami is down to their third-string, rookie QB (Skylar Thompson). Without Tua, Waddle has especially taken a hit: Waddle has the same target share (11.9%) as Trent Sherfield (who?) and an even shorter aDOT the last 2 weeks. - Rhamondre Stevenson 📈
With Damien out several games, Rhamondre is set to crash RB1 ranks. Rhamondre has the talent (highest juke rate: 72.2%). And now, he has Bill’s confidence — surely Bill won’t play his RB mind games again (i.e. Jonas Gray).
My bet is that Tua will return to give this squad a nice push, but Caleb’s record will have to endure two tough matchups these upcoming weeks (vs. Alex and Jesse). Rhamondre’s ascension may not be enough.
7. Danny (3–2)
The primary reason this squad lands in this tier is the 3–2 record. However, there are warning signs ahead. Danny’s two RB’s are declining in usage— Akers has the 3rd lowest rushing yards over expectation per carry on 40% snaps (since week 2), and Edmonds has 32% snaps (since week 3).
Meanwhile, Pittman is being held back by an unhealthy route tree: his longest target is 17 yards, and he leads the NFL in hitch routes (54), serving mainly as a lower value, short-possession receiver.
If those three guys don’t see major changes, this squad could drop to the next tier.
Tier 4: War for the Stepstones
Teetering on irrelevance
8. Kong (2–3)
There are reasons for optimism that Kong’s team is more than it has shown. Breece Hall is nearing an RB1 profile, while the Buffalo stack (J. Allen + G. Davis) has produced an average 58 ppg on spike weeks. Can the Buffalo stack consistently hit?
One point of pessimism is Conner’s nagging injury history (ribs, ankle) — acting as more of an anchor in ELO hell. Who will fill in that spot? Keep an eye out on how Kong plays the waivers.
9. PC (3–2)
Without his two stars (JT + Chase) going nuclear, PC’s squad is likely going to perform below the level of his 3–2 record.
What is going on with Chase? Look at his QB. This year, Burrow has seen the most snaps against 2-high safety coverage, and Joe is struggling with getting what the defense gives him. Last season, he completed 71.9% of his passes to the intermediate area of the field (10–19 yards). This season, that figure is at 58% (including 3 interceptions).
Tier 5: Seen Better Days
Need…more…milk of the poppy
10. Bode (1–4)
This team stepped on several landmines. No amount or quality of leeches can heal these flesh wounds:
- NFC South “stacks”: Baker has cratered DJ Moore and CMC’s ceilings. And Arthur Smith is keeping London and Pitts from seeing a full complement of snaps (<90% snaps).
- Mixon: Kong was featured on this year’s first On Blast, and once again, the trade is looking like an On Blast misfire. Mixon has been disappointing in the red zone: only 1 TD, despite leading all RB’s in carries inside-the-5.
11. Theo (1–4)
When I reached out to Theo about a trade last week, his response: “I need a new team haha.” The injury bug hit again, taking out his TE1 — Daren Waller.
12. Injured Reserve (0–5)
What a Superbowl hangover! Can the return of 30+ year old WR’s (DeAndre Hopkins and Keenan Allen) save this infirmary of a team?
