This year has been fiercely competitive with a potential of 8–9 teams reasonably vying for a playoff spot. This upcoming stretch of games has major implications toward playoff clinches and seeding — which will likely factor in team scoring to break ties.
With 5 games left, we turn to Playoff Seeding Odds Machine to give us a readout on your team’s odds. Leverage the readout below to help inform your management strategies and trade negotiations.
Battle for the BYE
Teams with Playoff Odds > 95%
1. Tomson (7–2)
BYE Odds: 68%
The departure of Claypool from PIT could spell more of an upgrade to Tomson’s TE — Freiermuth. Claypool primarily ran short-to-intermediate routes out of the slot, and Freiermuth figures to pick up where Claypool left off. Tomlin recently said— “It’s reasonable to expect (Pat) to get continually highlighted in that area as well.” A higher ceiling would shore up one of Tomson’s few weaknesses.
2. Alex (5–4)
BYE Odds: 68%
Godwin doesn’t have 1 end zone target this year, but that surely cannot keep up. (The closest target Godwin has seen in the end zone came on a 2-point conversion play.) If Godwin can see a more high-value target diet, that could serve in clinching a valuable BYE.
3. Benny (6–3)
BYE Odds: 36%
Like Tomson, Benny could use an upgrade at the TE1 position to compete for the BYE. Hockenson is now playing in a nearly full-time receiver role (ran route on 83% dropbacks) in a MIN offense that has been pass-heavy in scoring position (2nd in Pass Rate Over Expectation in Red Zone).
Playoff Positioning
Teams with Playoff Odds > 50%
4. Caleb (5–4)
Playoff Odds: 90%
This team is usually carried by the Miami WR stack. But help seems to be coming — the recent season-ending injury to MT could very well elevate Olave to a third co-star role. Caleb’s key to crashing the BYE week tier is Zeke’s sprained MCL. If there is any injury recurrence, that would lock Pollard into a RB1 role.
5. Jesse (4–5)
Playoff Odds: 67%
Aaron Jones’ mild injury kept this team from free-falling. The injury hit to Doubs hurts, but Jesse has a couple upside-flex options in Toney, Wan’Dale, and Gibson. With Hardman recently missing practice, could that spell more usage for Toney? (In his rookie season, Toney got open often. He was targeted on 26% of his routes.) And can McKissic’s neck injury sustain Gibson as a receiving weapon?
6. Vince (5–4)
Playoff Odds: 65.5%
Vince holds a monopoly on start-worthy running backs, and with patience, he has seen several of them emerge to form a triple RB1/2 platoon. Pierce has played 75% of Houston’s two-minute offense, which could elevate him to RB1 status. And Sanders is 7th among RB’s on carries inside-the-10. Their sustained emergence at the RB1/2 borderline should carry him forward to a top-6 finish.
7. Danny (5–4)
Playoff Odds: 58.9%
The trade acquisitions for rushing weapons position Danny well in the battle for the 6th seed. In week 9, Fields (42.7 pts) and Mixon (55.1) led their respective position in the highest scoring fantasy games of the season. If they continue devouring rushing yards, that’ll go a long way toward hedging his weekly Williams/Swift roulette spin.
Boar on the Floor
6th seed odds > 3%
8. Bode (4–5)
6th Seed Odds: 9%
The one glimmer of hope for this team is Rachaad White birthing into a RB1 shadow assassin. Lenny has a history with hamstrings, and The Athletic’s Greg Auman predicts “the momentum will likely be with” Rachaad White at the end of the season in Tampa’s backfield.
9. Kong (4–5)
6th Seed Odds: 3%
Kong’s squad just made the cut for this tier, but he could easily drop out if Josh Allen’s elbow sprain and ulnar nerve issue on his throwing arm take him out several weeks. That would throw a wet blanket on his previously prolific Buffalo stack.
Cancun on 3
Playoff Odds < 2%
10. PC (4–5)
Miss the Playoffs Odds: 98%
PC was doomed by two fallen stars — Chase (hip injury) and Taylor (ankle issues). Recently, the Colts have elevated their pass game specialist/assistant quarterbacks Parks Frazier to offensive playcaller with Jeff Saturday as the new HC. Even if JT plays, he’ll merely be a tank commander in a disturbingly poor offense.
11. Theo (4–5)
Miss the Playoffs Odds: 98%
Injuries negatively impacted his squad as well — primarily involving Mike Williams, Darren Waller, and Ezekiel Elliott. That’s a large chunk of Theo’s draft investment gone for the last couple of weeks.
12. Gordon (1–8)
Miss the Playoffs Odds: 100%
The 8th loss was the nail in the coffin to any playoff hopes. While Gordon’s squad has scored the 2nd lowest points, he has also faced the most difficult schedule thus far (1,320 points against). There was never any chance.
