This season is full of landmines. It’ll be a rougher season than most with COVID impacts and a higher probability of injuries with the lack of training camp and pre-season. That makes more room for sudden standouts, trades, as well as duds for us highlight. Let’s dig in:
DRIP💧
Players who looked good
Jesse’s Joe Mixon (42.1 pts)
Mixon went nuclear in week 4. Is he a RB1 now?
- Weeks 1–3: 27.2 points
- Week 4: 42.1 points
Now, he has more total fantasy points than RB1 Josh Jacobs. What changed? Give the Bengals the lead, and his week winning upside turns god-mode.
Theo’s Odell Beckham (38.4 pts)
OBJ went full ODB-mode, reaching a top speed of 20.6 MPH on his 50-yard TD scamper. The TD probability on that play was <1%, but Odell’s speed (and a lackluster Cowboys defense) enabled the home run. Also impressive: Odell reached 38 points on a day when Baker threw only 165 passing yards, while leading the Cowboys for majority of the game. There could be room for more.
Danny’s CeeDee Lamb (25.2 pts)
💿🐑 is ballin. He has 6+ targets per game this season, and even if that number seems low against the backdrop of Dak’s pass attempts (50 per game), those targets are enough to establish a safe floor with weekly TD upside. He is the WR2 over Gallup in McCarthy’s offense.
Kong’s Mike Davis (22.1 pts)
Davis is laying on the Hertz (sorry). In week 4, Davis was among the top 5 leaders in goal-line carries (2) and RB targets (6). Mike also has a forced missed tackle rate of 35% and posted 4.3 YAC per attempt. Both rates rank higher than CMC this year:
PC’s Latavius Murray (21.3 pts)
When the Saints go run-heavy, Latavius becomes more than just a handcuff, and he is a perfect fill-in as teams hit bye weeks. Murray saw 38% of snaps, and is a perfect fit for goal-to-go situations over Kamara. PC starting both Kamara and Murray gives him an interesting weekly floor play, depending on the Saints’ playcall for the week.
FLIP🤝
Exchanges & Acquisitions
Gordon’s JuJu Smith-Schuster, Leonard Fournette
Caleb’s Devin Singletary, Michael Gallup
With Gordon’s RB insta-upgrades to Kelley and Hunt after Ekeler and Chubb injuries, Gordon had the bandwidth to consolidate depth for WR1 upside. Meanwhile, Caleb gets two variable, but ceiling gambles:
- Gallup: In a game where Prescott threw 504 yards, Gallup only had 29, while his target share has declined on a weekly basis from 13% → 8%. His role model is Metcalf, as Gallup is still among top 3 in receiving yards per catch.
- Singletary: In weeks where Zach Moss is sidelined, Singletary has over 85% of the team’s snaps, translating to immediate RB2 role. In weeks with Moss healthy, that percentage drops to 57%.
This trade fulfills both owners’ needs, and both owners win. I like this trade ever so slightly more for Caleb because I suspect Diontae’s return could cap JuJu’s upside to strictly WR2 status in that offense.
Jesse’s Tee Higgins ($31)
Death is one step along the path to resurrection, and Death has spelled doom on Jesse’s old flame, AJ Green. Over the past two weeks, Higgins has now out-targeted Green 16–11, out-gaining him 117–39 in receiving yards.
SKIP🚫
Hard Pass
Vince’s Kenyan Drake as RB1 (3.5 pts)
Edmonds is the odd handcuff who functions as a drain on the starter’s production, stealing nearly all of Drake’s targets. This usage is such a sharp departure from last year. In 6 games last season, Drake averaged 5.6 targets per game. This year, Drake has just a total of 5. The silver lining: Drake still has one of the league’s easiest remaining schedules for RB production.
Bode’s A.J. Green as WR3 (1.3 pts)
The days of AJ Green being a WR1 are over. The days of AJ Green being a WR2 are over. The days of AJ Green being a WR3 are over. In week 4, Burrow was 0/7 on deep throws (20+ yards), which happens to be Green’s meal ticket. With Green’s age showing, the guy looks washed as the season progresses.
Sammy’s Chris Thompson as FLEX (0 pts)
CT has made a living as the long-down and 2-minute drill PPR back for the past several years, but it looks like he is being phased out completely, even when the Jaguars are down a couple scores in week 4: CT only saw 16 snaps to Robinson’s 52.
Josh’s Zach Ertz as TE1 (6.9 pts)
The loss of Goedert was supposed to be a boost to Ertz’s targets, but defenses are focusing on Ertz with the Eagles lacking WR to start. His visible decline in speed has also compounded the issues. While Ertz is technically still a TE1 because TE is a wasteland this year, his days of being an effective target hog seem to be over.
