Congratulations to Danny’s squad for clinching the playoffs!
Rather than doing a power ranking this week, we will be taking a look at the playoff picture, and group teams into the following tiers:
- Hunt for 2nd Seed
- Securing Playoff Spot
- Need to Win Out
Hunt for 2nd Seed
Revenge of the Charky
Record: 8–3
Reason for hope:
- The return of Foles was initially seen as an unknown factor to Chark’s production, given his propensity to target the slot. But it appears that Chark gets a boost in both ceiling and floor, projecting WR1 upside. Past week, Chark connected with Pastor Foles for 34- and 20-yard touchdowns.
- Thomas, Cook, and Wilson are each capable of surpassing 30 points on any given week, which may be needed should Jesse’s squad ever match up with Danny’s team. Wilson in particular has reached 39+ points twice this season (Wk 3: 41.43 pts / Wk 9: 39.22 pts)
- The injury to Jordan Howard could potentially boost Miles Sanders to three-down usage, which makes him a solid RB2 with room for upside.
Reason for concern:
- With the Eagles running two-TE sets at a league high rate (40%), Ertz has had to compete for targets with Goedert. Could there be weeks where Goedert plays the leading role?
Hyde Yo Chubb
Record: 7–4
Reasons for hope:
- The return of Mahomes nearly guarantees a boost in Kelce’s ceiling. Regardless of position, Kelce is 4th in the league in red zone targets (15).
- When the Bucs hold the lead, Godwin has been targeted more often. The Bucs face winnable games in their remaining schedule. Blowup games may be necessary, if Conner is still ailing.
Reasons for concern:
- In Paul’s victories, his opponents average 110 points, which is the lowest in the league. How will Paul’s team perform against stiffer competition in the playoffs?
- Conner has been leaving nearly every game with an injury. Out of all the teams contending for the first round playoff BYE, Paul’s squad needs it the most.
Securing Playoff Spot
Parris Hilton
Record: 6–5
Reasons for hope:
- The departure of the Chargers former pass happy OC created opportunity for Gordon to be a solid RB2 with true low-end RB1 appeal (touches per game jumped from 13.8 to 23).
- Based on targets and yardage alone, Landry looks the part as the Browns’ top receiver. His route tree is easier for Baker to target, as Baker found him in the end zone on a 1 yard crossing route vs. Steelers.
Reasons for concern:
- Can Kittle get fully healthy for the fantasy playoffs?
- The return of Fuller factors into Hopkins’ ceiling. Without Fuller, Hopkins gets targeted at an elite rate (12 times per game). With Fuller, that rate drops to 9.3 times per game.
ZEKE is my cow
Record: 6–5
Reasons for hope:
- Alex’s promised ‘OBJ Vibes’ have finally materialized. Sutton is in the midst of a 2nd year breakout campaign (9th in PFF receiving grade).
- The Cowboys have been slowly ramping up Zeke’s workload for the second half of the season. Last year, Zeke’s touches increased in the second half of the season (from 22.2 to 28.9).
Reasons for concern:
- How will the return of Thielen impact Diggs’ ceiling?
- Even though Brady is a great QB in real life, he showed he may not be a locked-in, comfortable start on a week to week basis.
ReleaseMe
Record: 6–5
Reasons for hope:
- This team has two league-winners in Lamar Jackson and Christian McCaffrey, who can lift the lid. Lamar and CMC each have 5 games surpassing 30 points.
- Henry doesn’t need to catch passes, in order to be a productive RB in our PPR league. Henry finished Week 10 with 33.1 fantasy points in PPR leagues, giving him his third top-10 performance in his last five games.
Reasons for concern:
- Engram is dealing with a mid-foot sprain, in the Lisfranc territory. This injury nagged at Newton for multiple weeks. Can Engram get healthy enough to be the high-end TE1 for critical remaining matchups?
Vincent’s Team
Record: 6–5
Reasons for hope:
- D.J. Moore leads Vince’s portfolio of receivers. In weeks 8–11, Moore saw 9, 10, 11, and 15 targets. In weeks 9 through 11, Moore went over 95 yards. His safe production is necessary to anchor the high risk, high reward mix of deep-ball receivers (M. Brown, K. Stills, R. Anderson).
- Saquon Barkley’s workload is not in danger, even though the Giants continue losing games. Last season, when the Giants dropped out of contention, Saquon averaged 18 carries and 4 catches per game in five games in December, which included 83% snaps and 142 scrimmage yards in Week 17.
Reasons for concern:
- As previously mentioned, the high-risk, high-reward mix of receivers carries the risk of low floor production. This group (M. Brown, K. Stills, R. Anderson) has combined for 17 games scoring below 10 points.
Need to Win Out
pop_$ecret
Record: 5–6
Reasons for hope:
- T. Hill, M. Evans, and J. Brown are top-3 respectively in air yards over the last 5 weeks.
- Gurley’s workload appears to be ramping up for the second half of the season. A couple weeks ago, his snap rate was 55% with an overwhelming lead. The past week, his snap rate jumped up to 76%.
Reasons for concern:
- S. Michel is dependent on positive game scripts. Even though he leads the league in carries inside-the-5, the majority of his production comes off those goal-line touches. If the Patriots ever play in tight contests or trail, Michel’s production could be impacted.
- T. Hill suffered a hamstring injury in Mexico City. If he is out for any number of games after the week 12 BYE, it casts even more doubt on odds of making the playoffs.
SBBEndGame
Record: 5–6
Reasons for hope:
- Gallup’s second year breakout is here to stay. With Cooper facing the opposing team’s top corner and braving through lower body injuries, Gallup has been force fed, seeing 10+ targets for the past two weeks.
- Ekeler is locked-in as a PPR RB2. In week 11, Ekeler was handed nine fewer carries than Melvin Gordon, but totaled 42 more scrimmage yards. The underneath routes are a safe source of points.
Reasons for concern:
- R. Woods, D. Montgomery, and T. Johnson are striving to be solid starters, but quality of their workloads remain in question.
- Golladay is a terrific receiver, but the absence of Stafford severely depresses his once stratospheric ceiling. Under Driskel, Golladay tied other receivers in target share the past week.
Everyone Else
