The theme of week 7’s power ranking’s is…Playoff Probability. Each team was run through the playoff calculator to determine the probability of making the playoffs. Bonus playoff-relevant spotlights for your team as well:
1. Knockn On Evans Door (↔️)
Season Record: 6–1
Playoff Probability: 98%
The productivity of Danny’s RB committee has been a big reason for his impending playoff berth. All of his RB’s function as receivers. Ekeler, Kamara, Thompson each average 6+ targets per game.
One guy to monitor in the second half is Josh Jacobs usage in the passing game: he has 2.4 targets/game in the last 4 weeks.
2. Revenge of Charky (↑1)
Season Record: 6–1
Playoff Probability: 92%
Jesse’s WR unit has been the difference in his recent victories: Chark, Ridley, and Williams each have at least 4 weeks of 10+ point performances. However, he may need 1–2 of those guys to turn into a consistent WR2 since Cook and Johnson can’t do it all.
The WR upgrade could also come from his bench: Corey Davis was revitalized by the switch from Mariota to Tannehill, scoring and seeing nearly 25% of his team’s targets, and D-Jax is nearing a return as Wentz’s deep threat.
3. Hyde Yo Chubb (↓1)
Season Record: 5–2
Playoff Probability: 92%
Paul’s team has a potential triple RB threat with Conner, Chubb, Hyde each owning a lead role in their offense. There are two situations to monitor as his squad is likely to clinch the playoffs:
- Hunt’s role upon return from suspension: could he relegate Chubb to RB2 tier by taking away his passing usage (4+ targets per game) come playoffs?
- Texans remaining schedule: when the Texans have the lead, Hyde gets activated as a RB2/flex play with heavy goal-line usage. When the Texans trail, Hyde sees a reduced role.
4. SBBEndgame (↔️)
Season Record: 5–2
Playoff Probability: 87%
It evidently takes a village to pull off the endgame scenario, as top-heavy builds have struggled recently. Five wins still give this balanced team a high chance of making the playoffs, and there is potential room for this unit to grow:
- Will the Bears offense afford David Montgomery high value touches? (Bears rank as bottom-10 offense in points scored per game. Montgomery has one weekly finish better than RB28.)
- Will Gallup improve upon his drops? (Gallup leads the league in drop rate at 20%)
5. Vincent’s Team (↑4)
Season Record: 4–3
Playoff Probability: 65%
Vince is sitting on two of the best lottery tickets in the game: Murray and Pollard. He saw the Murray ticket hit big the past week (119 rush yards, 2 rush TD; 5 rec, 31 yards vs. CHI). His playoff chances could improve even more if either of those tickets becomes a long-term RB1, which would pair very nicely next to his shiny new RB1, Saquon Barkley.
Even though Vince is moving away three of his starting receivers, the playoff calculator thinks the acquisition of Barkley brings his team to a net positive, as his playoff odds jumped from 40% to 60%!
6. ZEKE is my cow (↑4)
Season Record: 3–4
Playoff Probability: 55%
At first, the roster looked top-heavy with Kamara. The recent trade for Diggs and Freeman gave Caleb a much more balanced team. His playoff probability dipped slightly from 61% to 55% with that trade. Still, Caleb’s team is well built for a playoff run.
Keep an eye on whether the Vikings will trend toward balance with their play-calling (rank 2nd to last in pass play %). Also, monitor Thielen’s hamstring situation — which could also damage boost Diggs to WR1 levels.
7. Parris Hilton (↓1)
Season Record: 3–4
Playoff Probability: 52%
The Texans wombo combo found new life the past week. Hopkins was seeing low value passes in the past several weeks, but his aDOT jumped from 6.4 to 10 the past week. ‘Nuk sorely needed Watson to air it out more often in his direction.
With the playoff calculator giving this squad middling odds, Parris Hilton needs that combo to be firing on all cylinders the rest of the way. It would also help if M. Gordon regained some semblance of his old self. His longest run of the year is 7 yards.
8. Revenge of the Cooks (↑4)
Season Record: 3–4
Playoff Probability: 41%
The playoff probability for this team could change very quickly, depending on the Packers stack. Rodgers returned to his alpha-QB form, scoring 6 TD’s. And news awaits on the state of Davante Adams’ turf toe. If both can regain their 2018 connection, it could get dangerous. Also, Le’Veon Bell has a better schedule the rest of the way, so there could be a second half surge coming.
9. ReleaseMe (↓2)
Season Record: 2–5
Playoff Probability: 31%
The road to the playoffs has been tough, as his downfield threats have suffered from injuries (J. Ross III, M. Brown), and his star TE (E. Engram) got injured mid-game. For such a top-heavy roster build, those injuries have been felt, which triggered a deal for three slot receivers (T. Lockett, T. Boyd, G. Tate).
To beat the calculator’s odds, it would help if Sanders has couple weeks of splash plays as a receiver (Week 6 receptions: 11, 32 [TD], 45). Stop giving the ball to Jordan Howard!
10. pop_$ecret (↑3)
Season Record: 2–5
Playoff Probability: 23%
This team’s playoff odds took a steep decline the moment AB got released. But that’s way back in the past now. No point in dwelling over how AB simply had to be normal, play it safe, resist intimidating his accusers, think before punting the ball at Mike Mayock. No point in going over how AB was projected to be a top-end WR1 as Brady’s go-to weapon.
No point.
11. why so derrius? (↓6)
Season Record: 3–4
Playoff Probability: 21%
The hunt for a productive RB2 has been strenuous. Almost 40% of points at that position has come from Adrian Peterson touchdowns (2 TD in the last 6 games).
Either Guice returns in a three-down role (3 rec, 20 yards in Week 1) or Ramon finds buyers in the trade market using his depth of wide receivers (M. Thomas, T. McLaurin, A. Jeffery, J. Smith-Schuster, A. Brown). There could be a market for A.J. Brown down the road, who recently got unlocked by Tannehill (drew >25% of his team’s targets).
12. James White Claw (↓4)
Season Record: 3–4
Playoff Probability: 40%
James White Claw could use a couple Phoenix Downs. This squad’s path to the playoffs now rests on the shoulders of J. Allen and A. Green. The playoff calculator likes those chances, as it gave Benny’s crew a 40% chance of making the playoffs. His team is still ranked lower with several injury designations hanging in the balance.
Josh Allen is locked in as a top-5 QB as he faces weak pass defenses in the upcoming weeks: PHI, WAS, CLE, MIA. And Green’s anticipated return comes at a great time with Zac Taylor’s heavy pass offense ranking in the top-5 in pass attempts. Green could become a garbage time star.
13. ████████████████ (↓2)
Season Record: 2–5
Playoff Probability: 20%
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14. Leegion of Boom (↔️)
Season Record: 2–5
Playoff Probability: 12%
Josh used almost all his good luck at the Luxor as the hot shooter. His playoff hopes rested on the explosive ceiling of the Falcons stack: M. Ryan & J. Jones. Julio is one of the four WR with 7+ targets per game.
Unfortunately, Matty Ice was spotted in a walking boot after the game. Hopefully, he is able to come back from injury soon because M. Schaub is not someone who is likely to enable Julio’s trademark ceiling games.
