The Future of Collaboration + Technology
— Collaborative technology and human interaction is at the forefront of innovation. Through the lens of a large player, Microsoft, this piece will dive into the fringe of three primary ways in which humans interact — conversations, transactions, and collaborations.
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In baseball, on deck refers to being next in line to bat. On a naval aircraft carrier, on deck refers to a boarded pilot in his plane on the flight deck in which the pilot then is taxied to the catapult and launched. — ON DECK is where my thoughts are composed in original form.
Collaboration is a joint effort of multiple individuals or work groups to accomplish a task or project. Within an organization, collaboration typically involves the ability of two or more people to view and contribute to documents or other content over a network. Communication is key in any company. For example, Microsoft, Google, and other companies have developed phenomenal products that allow organizations to be more efficient in the same amount of time in a single day. Collaborative tools are at the root of this phenomenon, and the industry has seen smaller start-ups, such as Slack, take the giants on with success. Slack has been a success since bursting on the scene in 2014, however, it is just a drop in the ocean at this point with only 4 million daily active users and less than 6 million weekly active users. For a collaborative technology that gets more than its fair share of press and seems to connect teams at startups all over the world, it is still in its infancy. Once platforms and collaborative technologies take businesses by storm then other pitch decks focusing on similar technology begin to surface. However, more times than not, those pitch decks were not created by one of the mammoths — Microsoft. This research has been carried out for Microsoft.
Collaboration technology can be defined in many ways. This report will analyze collaborative technology and human interaction. It will do this by diving into the fringe of three primary ways in which humans interact — conversations, transactions, and collaborations. Conversational interaction is an exchange of information between two or more participants where the primary purpose of the interaction is discovery or relationship building. Transactional interaction involves the exchange of transaction entities where a major function of the transaction entity is to alter the relationship between participants. In collaborative interactions the main function of the participants’ relationship is to alter a collaboration entity (i.e., the converse of transactional).
The design intent of collaborative tools (groupware) is to transform the way documents and interactive media (text, moving image, animation, video, audio, and video games) are shared in order to enable more effective team collaboration.
Collaborative Technology requires the attention of Microsoft. Microsoft seems to be trying to innovate and advance their company with recent product announcements and acquisitions. They have built and acquired companies in the area of enterprise communication and recently released collaborative software within the Office 365 suite. Communication is a critical function and a driver within a business. Collaborative software is at the root of this and is an important trend for Microsoft to take notice of and act accordingly.
Collaborative software can be applied to every space that relies on communication to function. The technology is bred within the software industry, however, will not be a foreign technology to any business or person 2016 and beyond.
What should Microsoft do?
Microsoft has been beaten to market in this space. However, the user base is still relatively low compared to the potential market. The ultimate goal is to create a quality end-to-end digital solution — Microsoft’s combined strength in productivity services and cloud computing will be its competitive advantage in the collaborative software space. Teams must have a successful launch and gain traction within the market. Improvements must be made to current functionality of Teams due to the market having already voiced a steep learning curve. The value proposition offered by Teams is amplified if it can be used for many purposes, eliminating the need for multiple programs. Microsoft should fold Skype for Business into Teams, capitalizing on the existing Skype customer base while also enhancing Teams’. Collaborative bots will remain in the market and improve efficiency and effectiveness; therefore, Microsoft must ensure its artificial intelligence offerings at the very least match competitors.
Microsoft should prioritize investment into technologies, which would allow the gain of significant market share due to their newly created innovations within collaborative technology. Translation services are theorized that advancements are probable, thus language will be a key component in collaborative tools. Communication on a global scale will allow for instantaneous market share and globalization. Also, democratization of artificial intelligence technology is crucial in moving toward vertical innovation instead of horizontal stagnation. Furthermore, data security is vital for Microsoft’s future and should not be overlooked while technological innovation is occurring.
The possibilities within collaborative technology space are rather extensive and very exciting. Microsoft must remain in the fringe and identify drivers of this trend that are on the cusp of becoming mainstream. This outlines a methodical process created by The Future Today Institute, which is also detailed extensively in The Signals Are Talking by Amy Webb. In doing so, Microsoft will be better equipped to remain competitive within the future of collaborative technology.
Forecasting Model
DATA & PATTERN RECOGNITION: Fringe Sketch (Step 1)
MODELING: CIPHER Analysis (Step 2)
Decoding information & data in two ways:
- Regression Analysis
- Creative Thinking
Contradictions
At the heart of the collaborative tools is the desire to improve communication and create greater efficiencies for collaboration among groups of people. Technologies such as Artificial Intelligence and Bots within the collaborative space automate tasks and theoretically form a work environment where productivity flourishes. Establishing that the theory works well in practice will be essential. As the trend advances, there becomes less of a need for genuine physical human interaction, in addition to less online human communication when automation kicks into high gear. The lack of consistent face-to-face communication jeopardizes personal relationships at the core of life and business, in addition to raising concerns around privacy and security. With collaborative tools still in their (relatively) infant stage, it will be important to monitor the evolution of communication over time and any positive or negative changes.
Data is essential to the collaborative tools trend, although the availability of data yields both positive and negative effects. The idea of taking huge amounts of data and having an AI editor synthesizing the most important ideas for human learning is attractive, yet also dangerous as it may be difficult to teach AI the proper the values, laws, and priorities that humans hold. In addition, privacy and data security issues related to hacking and corporate espionage become even more important once collaborative software find ways to share information.
Inflections
The availability of internet access (balloons), broadband connectivity, and cloud computing (Microsoft Azure’s initiatives) will be crucial contributors to widespread use of collaborative tools. Although many first adopters may take these for granted, there are many areas both in the United States and around the world where current technological infrastructure is not yet in place for collaborative tools to succeed. Greater battery life will also be important as research currently being performed on over-the-air charging and month-long power pushes to the forefront.
The introduction of Workplace by Facebook and Microsoft Teams in the latter half of 2016 may also be looked back upon as major inflection points in the history of collaborative tools. Although not currently boasting a significant user base, both projects signal larger investments in the space by two huge and massively influential corporations. Slack has grown quickly and recently hit 4 million daily active users. This growth has paved the way for collaborative software startups such as Basecamp and Trello in addition to forcing the hand of big players to launch products, even if they are not yet fully formed.
Practices
Collaborative tools challenge the existing orthodoxy in multiple ways. First, this trend challenges the notion of traditional work standards. Software programs currently available are intended to be email killers while AI eliminates the need for assistants and improve automation. The comfort and skill level with these new underlying technologies vary depending on age, generation, and culture. For example, there are vast differences in how Baby Boomers, Gen Xers, and Millennials feel about flexible work arrangements and communicating exclusively online.
The collaborative tools trend also touches an expanded scope of industries when considering its potential impact on workplace location. There has already been a slight shift to remote access but if collaborative tools explode the necessity of physical work offices will be further questioned. Home designers must take this trend into account as work bleeds into all aspects of the home. City planners and transit authorities will have a vested interest as well since collaborative tools spur change in commuting practices and the physical allocation of space within real estate development. Also, the possibility of large-scale super suburbs located relatively far away from traditional city centers influences consumer spending in addition to city design.
Hacks
Online collaboration has a history of hacks leading to new developments. This includes a tool such as Google Docs, which many uses were not initially intended, as well as Slack starting off as an internal company program used while creating an online game. In regards to the future, brain controlled interfaces that take electrical signals and produce actions and movements can be applied to many fields, including advanced prosthetics. In the collaborative workspace, innovations in the mid to long range could result in useful features related to VR and virtual world capabilities.
Extremes
One extreme area of research that provides applications to collaborative tools is shared thoughts, either through telepathy or other advanced scientific means. In the drive to increase efficiency in communication, perhaps nothing would benefit these efforts more than the ability to simply share ideas directly with colleagues by thinking them. The development of this technology extends into the far range time frame but is worth monitoring due to its revolutionary potential.
Another extreme that is closer to being put into practice is the universal monitoring of online activity. Microsoft filed for a patent titled “Query Formulation via Task Continuum” in September of this year. The patent is assumed to be involved with improvements for the Bing search engine but the underlying technology can certainly be utilized in other projects. An application that has an AI service actively monitoring all open programs could be invaluable as a collaborative tool by examining all data, objectives, and concerns that are shared across a group.
Rarities
Most of the work being done in this space involves digital software and applications, but physical devices such as implants are also relevant. At this point in time, it may be difficult to foresee a future where people intentionally enhance themselves with tech implants that speak with collaborative programs. However, the convenience benefits of implants that are literally part of your body may eventually outweigh health or social concerns. Battery life, infections, and functionality still pose concerns within the human body. However, advances in the medical field will soon help pave the way for this technology to potentially become a new norm.
Overall Patterns
A few critical patterns were revealed through our CIPHER analysis. The first involves the significance of data. Almost everything in the space comes back to data ownership in the arms race to capture all data, keystrokes, and behavior in order to create a more efficient and seamless online work environment. Artificial intelligence, bots, and automation all rely heavily on large and useful sets of data. The focus on data and interconnectivity leads to questions surrounding data privacy and security, including legislation (Freedom of Information Act) and the threat of espionage.
Another key revelation that involves the scale at which collaborative tools could change the world is widespread acceptance of these technologies in which the impact across numerous fields would fundamentally alter the lifestyles of many people around the world. It is important to consider which trend comes first: Do collaborative tools lead to greater acceptance of alternative work arrangements? Or is greater acceptance of alternative work arrangements a prerequisite for the adoption of new collaborative tools? These two trends are closely correlated and both have enormous implications for real estate markets, city design, and transportation.
One final theme that emerged in our analysis a bit unexpectedly was the negative effects of increased communication online. First, conveying emotion online is not always simple — the true intent may occasionally be lost in translation. In addition, differences in digital satisfaction between varying ages and generations will be exacerbated as collaborative tools become more commonly used. We must also note that behavioral dynamics are not directly translatable to computers. As displayed by the example of President Kennedy and the Moon Shot, technical predictions and analysis by machines does not always capture the human spirit, which is an indispensable part of communication.
INTERROGATING: DISADS & Conclusions from CIPHER (Step 3)
Are collaborative tools habit forming? Will collaborative software and technology change consumer behavior?
Collaborative tools have emerged as the new workplace norm in society. These tools are widely used by many people either in school or workplaces or across almost all industries. Collaborative tools also have become a new habit. The terms “can you Slack me later?” or “put all the updates on Slack” are proof that collaborative tools have become common practice and consumer’s behaviors are evolving toward more efficient and effect models of communication. Collaborative tools have also provided a new wave of economic opportunities as shown by the success and rise of startup companies such as Basecamp, Slack and Trello. And it does not stop there — many giants within the industry have also rolled out their own collaborative tools such as Microsoft, Oracle, and IBM.
Does it reduce customer friction points? Are there long-term financial incentives in other companies and sectors?
Collaborative tools have eased collaboration across departments, people, and teams where one platform is utilized. Less face to face meetings, weekly conference calls, and struggles in accessing different pieces of information has greatly enhanced user productivity where everything is available in one interface and, in many cases, one click. It makes customers happier because they do not have to struggle to work together and can access their work, for better or worse, anywhere and at anytime. From a company standpoint, collaborative tools help boost productivity because it streamlines team work through different features such as chat, voice, video, and limitless other integrations.
Is there still work being done on the fringe?
There is also a significant amount of room to grow for collaborative tools in the future. The enhancement in AI, bots, and screen technology will make collaboration both smarter and faster. Looking to the future, collaborative tools have the possibility to have automatic language translation bridge cultural divides and truly make the world flat. Collaborative tools are also making an impact in a multitude of different industries. For example, the impact of collaborative tools can be seen in education through the enhancement of AI, helping students with homework, summarizing research or books, and even easing communication between students, teachers, and parents.
ESTIMATED TIME ARRIVAL & MAPPING (Step 4)
Strategic Thinking Framework
Trend’s timing = (i) +/- (e)
“WHEN” = (internal tech developments) +/- (external events)
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External Factors
— Items
— Scale of Importance
— Reasoning
Internal Factors
— Items
— Scale of Importance
— Reasoning
Scenario Analysis and Forecasting the Future (Step 5)
Formula:
If [Facts, Perspectives, Framing]…Then [Outcomes]
“If this // Then that”
i.e. — Given what we know today, Then…what happens?
40% < SCENARIOS < 80%
“not enough information” < SCENARIOS < “too late in the game”
STRATEGY: Questions & Recommendations
Questions:
What steps will be taken to address existing or new customer (or constituent) segments with this trend?
Teams rolled out to all Office 365 customers in early 2017. However, there is no guarantee that all subscribers will actually use Teams. In addition to current Microsoft customers, Atlassian claims that Hipchat is used by half of all Fortune 500 companies while Slack says that 77 Fortune 100 companies utilize its service. The questions of whether to target non-corporate segments and whether to spin off Teams as a separate program outside of Office must be addressed.
What new collaborators or partners could be made in leveraging this trend?
Could this trend create shared value within the organization or collaborators?
Strategic partnerships will be critical as the foundational technologies of collaborative tools continue to progress. Microsoft is involved heavily in the Open AI project, which democratizes advancements in artificial intelligence and holds Elon Musk and Peter Thiel as supporters. Establishing new partnerships for data access and service integration should also be prioritized, particularly in the wake of Slack and Google entering into a strategic agreement recently.
How is the long-term view on this trend reflected in the organization’s short-term practices and priorities?
Although current market size and profitability for collaborative software may not be massive, it is critical at this juncture to establish an initial project (Teams) in anticipation of greater importance for the technology in the future. Since Microsoft already possesses a powerful distribution system in Office 365, the focus should be on improving the current deficiencies of Teams.
What’s still happening at the fringe? What new research is emerging?
Bots, automation, virtual reality, and (relatively) basic artificial intelligence is entering the mainstream and, in some cases, are part of collaborative software products in the market right now. Fringe work involving more advanced virtual reality and holographic technology is worth keeping an eye on, though the importance of these trends will ultimately be determined by their use cases. Brain controlled input technology would be revolutionary in many spaces, including collaborative tools, but we currently peg it as just a Possible scenario.
Product Implementation
In terms of getting a full-fledged collaborative tools product to market, Microsoft has been beaten to market by other companies, most notably Slack Technologies. Slack’s product has grown quickly in the past couple years, and now boasts 4 million active users. However, this user base is still relatively low compared to the potential market. With this market landscape in mind, Microsoft announced a competing product, Teams, in November 2016. Teams is part of the Office 365 suite, which allows Microsoft to leverage the ubiquity of this software (80% of Fortune 500 companies use Office 365, which boasts a total of 85 million active monthly users) to push Teams. In today’s environment, creating a quality end-to-end digital solution is the holy grail — Microsoft’s combined strength in productivity services and cloud computing will be its competitive advantage in the collaborative software space.
There is significant work to be done in order to launch Teams successfully. First, Microsoft must manage potential confusion arising from owning multiple tools that serve similar functions. The company purchased Yammer in 2012 and also owns Skype for Business, which itself was formerly known as Lync. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has stated that the products all serve different purposes and will continue to operate as standalone applications. However, the value proposition offered by Teams is amplified if it can be used for many purposes, eliminating the need for multiple programs. Microsoft should fold Skype for Business into Teams, capitalizing on the existing base of Skype customers while also enhancing Teams’ portfolio. Yammer can be kept separate at this time since it is more of a social network platform, although the entrance of Facebook Workplace hints at the inevitability of corporate environments absorbing social media platforms on a wide scale.
Microsoft must also improve the current functionality of Teams, with advance reviews citing a surprisingly steep learning curve. Collaborative bots are a technology trend that is hitting the mainstream now and Microsoft must ensure its offerings at least match those of Slack and other competitors, if not surpassing them. As functionality improves and the collaborative tools trend grows, the company must also consider the question of whether to expand its product outside of the restrictive Office suite. One of Slack’s advantages is its open platform that is easily accessible across all software and devices. Teams is also currently set up for corporate use almost exclusively, but will that remain the best strategy? In near time to mid-range planning (5–10 years), Microsoft should develop a plan for entering the general marketplace, as we anticipate advancements in collaborative technologies will bleed into everyone’s personal lives, no matter their career or occupation. At this time, though, the limited Office environment provides a safe space for the incubation of Teams.
Technology Investment
In the short term, there are a few specific technologies in which Microsoft should prioritize investment. First, we theorize that advancements in translation services are probable and language will be a key component in collaborative tools. Instantaneous communication across countries and cultures would be a massive boon to globalization efforts. Microsoft also has experience in this space with the chat bot service Xiaoice, which focuses on the Chinese language. On the subject of bots, they are already a key feature of collaborative products with the next step being the incorporation of advanced AI. We anticipate progressive AI to have a large impact in a mid-range trajectory, given the technology continues to progress and does not succumb to an AI winter. Crucial to these developments are the democratization of the technology, which Microsoft has supported with Open AI. In addition, as the company works with large amounts of data, security and protection are absolutely essential. An attack on proprietary data within a program like Teams would cause serious damage to the company’s reputation and threaten future investments in collaborative tools. There have already been allegations of data breaches at Slack involving government officials. Allaying corporate and consumer concerns regarding data security requires a concerted effort on the part of Microsoft to fold data integrity into all aspects of its business.
Thinking slightly more long term, Microsoft’s recent patent titled “Query formulation via task continuum” addresses an area that we feel is plausible and would yield radical results. The patent proposes active data monitoring with the end goal of sharing information across applications to better assist users in search functionality. The possibilities in the collaborative software space are far ranging, as information for users in the same group could be linked to predict shared questions and needs. Microsoft should at least begin exploratory conversations with competitive services to gauge feasibility of this technology since it requires data integration. Another long-term technology trend is brain control inputs (BCI), which is possible but would not hit the mainstream for at least 20 years. The pragmatic and pessimistic scenarios are also more likely right now, though Microsoft should keep watch since the potential impact is revolutionary. Finally, Microsoft has lagged a bit behind rivals such as Samsung and Sony in the field of screen technology (VR), which we speculate to collide with collaborative tools over the next ten years. Microsoft’s work with HoloLens is a good start, and its status as an open platform should lead to partnerships with innovative vendors that can flourish down the line.
Trend Monitoring
The shift in workplace dynamics and trends towards remote access is a hugely influential area that must be monitored closely by Microsoft. Global Workplace Analytics estimates that the work at home, non-self-employed population has risen by 103% in the past ten years. In addition, 50% of the U.S. workforce holds a job that is at least compatible with partial telecommuting. Though extremely important, the extent to which workplace flexibility will actually result in large-scale shifts is yet to be determined, which is why we placed this particular trend under Keep Vigilant Watch in the Impact Matrix. Of course, if new developments indicate corporate and legislative movements to the support of alternative work arrangements, then collaborative tools will become even more essential and many of our Optimistic scenarios may play out. In these scenarios, Microsoft must quickly leverage the trend to its advantage by effectively communicating the power of collaborative tools in uniting colleagues.
Workplace trends also dramatically impact Microsoft’s core businesses, including traditional productivity services (Office), hardware, and cloud computing. With so much of the company’s revenue tied to businesses that are directly related to standard corporate hierarchies, it is extremely risky for Microsoft to start actively influencing or lobbying either for or against changes in workplace behavior. If a larger amount of work is done remotely, Microsoft’s cloud computing business and collaborative tools products may flourish. However, would the future of Office also be bright? Less centralized physical locations and younger generations not beholden to a corporate structure could potentially threaten Microsoft’s flagship segment. While we would probably still require basic productivity applications, freedoms with workplace location could extend to software choice. Due to these risks, we recommend Microsoft passively monitor macro enterprise trends and not push in either direction right now.
PRESSURE-TESTING: F.U.T.U.R.E. Test (Step 6)
Answers: What is the future of X?
Identifying a trend and developing a strategy does not complete a forecast into future technology and innovation. Microsoft will have to answer some of the challenging questions posed in the final step of vetting in the forecasting process, called the F.U.T.U.R.E. Test.
By answering questions, Microsoft will see how collaborative technology scenarios for the future and their corresponding strategy will fair in certainty with regards to the following traits: Foundation, Unique, Track, Urgent, Recalibrate, and Extensible.
Foundation
Microsoft certainly has the foundational support from key stakeholders within the organization, as executives have been acquiring wildly successful collaborative tools recently, for instance — Yammer, Skype for Business, LinkedIn, etc. Resources are being devoted toward M&A as well as venture creation, for instance — Microsoft Teams; which is a direct competitor to Slack Technologies whom is an innovator in the collaborative technology space. With recent poor experiences in the bot trend, a rebound has ensued and management is not overlooking small details that could be catastrophic toward the business, such as Tay — the rogue chat bot. Microsoft has the footing to attract top talent at the developer level on to the executive level, therefore, it is reasonable to believe that with the amount of time, money, and desire benchmarks can be broken with their available resources.
Unique
Collaborative technology is certainly unique, even in a land of competition. Peter Thiel may not agree that it is unique, however, Microsoft has the opportunity to create an end-to-end solution and monopolize the space. The reasoning behind that is the market share Microsoft already maintains in larger organizations whom currently use many of their programs to complete daily tasks far outweighs other competitors. Slack only has 4 million daily active users, even though it is extremely popular and a leading innovator in the space. Microsoft’s value proposition is clear to the customer, in which by releasing Teams the organization betting on the transition to a single platform for communication within the workplace where human interaction is enhanced and not burdened with the addition of technology.
Track
Microsoft has complete access to the data within the projects their teams are creating. Teams was recently released and the organization can track users accessing the software tool, as well as survey them as the product is developed. Currently, reviews for the newly minted Teams platform state that the learning curve is too steep. This is a clear indicator from users that the software must be revamped in order to maintain and grow market share. With the launch of Teams, Microsoft is able to set meaningful benchmarks and measure outcomes; especially with competition within the space from Facebook, IBM, Slack, and Google.
Urgent
Do to the traction other competitors have seen or hope to realize, Microsoft’s strategy is not to be a last mover. Even though the organization was beat to the market, a collaboration platform was in development with a sense of urgency. Due to Microsoft’s new release of a direct competitive product to Slack, the best way Slack thought to voice their opinion was to take out a full-page ad in the New York Times. Later Slack’s CEO tweeted a picture of himself reading the ad in the paper. Many people whom currently share Microsoft documents through the Slack platform for seamless team communication will look to Teams as an end-to-end solution that integrates with their Microsoft workplace platform.
Recalibrate
Teams is only the beginning of Microsoft’s shift into collaborative technology of the 21st century. There is a reason why competitors have emerged, even if they did so on a pivot with the original idea of their current platform. With that being said, collaborative technology will evolve along with its intended customer segments, especially as they upgrade their personal and/or corporate technology. As stated previously, after the intial release of Teams, there is already data suggesting to recalibrate the strategy of the platform and areas need to evolve. Microsoft has the capital to sustain long-term development cycle costs and to gain appropriate market share through a devoted staff that understands their company is a leading innovator in the technology sector.
Extensible
Collaboration Technology is extensible at Microsoft due to the trend of recent innovations and potential of the space. Their software is built in house and their staff has the control to accommodate changes easily. Collaboration software is a means toward seamless human interaction with technology. It is not hardwired into a device, and but instead operates across multiple devices for a simple user device transition. The design intent transforms the way documents and interactive media are shared which enables more effective and efficient team collaboration.
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What do you think is the Future of Collaborative Technology?
Many thanks to Amy, Andi, Dan, & Dan on their collaborative ideas during this analysis.
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