Every thing we think is wrong. And that’s ok.

“All models are wrong, but some are useful” — supposedly said, George Box.

The world we perceive is a model — constructed by our brains. For example, while we think we can “see in real time”, that “realtime streaming video” is actually constructed from a set of still snapshots (about 10 per second), and then expertly stitched together by our brain — creating an illusion of continuity. All models are always incomplete, and often inaccurate — which is what I meant by “wrong”.

So, if all models are wrong, and our perception of the world is a model, everything we think and feel is wrong. But happily, as Box implied, some things we think are also useful.

Let’s now pause for a cup of tea.

Little Tea Leaves

If you, like me, drink a lot of tea, and you, like me, brew tea directly from leaves, instead of tea-bags (what I call “from first principles”), you’ll find that you need to strain the tea. While the bulk of the leaves lodge in the strainer, a few little leaves will escape through its holes. None of the little tea-leaves “designed” to “survive” the strainer. Randomness happened to make them small — and as a result they “survived” the strainer.

We are all tiny tea leaves. We happen to be descended from lucky few who survived the trials of evolution, because we happened to posses the bodies and brains, which, by chance, adapted to survival. Our brains don’t create “correct” or “accurate” models of the world, merely ones optimized for survival. Sometimes these models are wrong, but it’s still ok.

For example, consider the snake.

Snake

Slithering serpent.
Staring. Beside my bedside.
In shadow. A belt.

Recently, I mistook a belt for a snake. This is not surprising. Given the choice of I) mistaking a belt for snake vs, II) mistaking a snake for a belt, my survival optimized brain would much prefer the first type to the second (Statisticians refer to rejecting the benign hypothesis incorrectly as Type I Error). If my (and your) ancestors had the type of brain that mistook snakes for belts (assuming that early humans on the African Savanna wore belts), they would not have survived, and I (and you) would not be here.

The snake episode is one instance of a pattern. Our brain focuses on a small detail, and ignores the big picture that is (supposedly) less useful. It looks for the slightest characteristic of a snake in a belt, ignoring the other characteristics of the belt (like the fact that, most belts have buckles).

“Usefulness” Principles

With my snake episode, I gave just one example of a broad set of phenomena known as cognitive biases. If you’d like to learn more about these biases, I’d recommend Rolf Dobelli’s The Art of Thinking Clearly, which succinctly describes over a 100. I’ve also compiled a personal “cheat-sheet” on how to interpret and act, given that “Every thing we think is wrong”, which (happily) attempts to make some things useful.

Curiosity

While most things our brains tell us are mostly inaccurate, they also have nuggets of usefulness. When we are alarmed by something that looks like a snake, our brains are actually telling us “there is a small probability that this might be a snake”. By being curious, observant, inquisitive, and open to ideas we can expose ourselves to as many such nuggets. While there is a lot of noise, there is also some signal — and so it’s useful to get comfortable with noise. The opposite of curiosity is being boxed into a silo of narrow ideas — like Religious Fundamentalists, Fascists, and “Liberals” (in the US), and Non-Liberals (Rest of the world).

Skepticism

While there might be some signal, there is also a lot of noise. Hence, its prudent to be skeptical about what we think, what others think, and what we think others think. I’d be highly skeptical of people who “read too much” into their thoughts, observations, ideas, planetary positions, or tea-leaves, or prematurely jump to conclusions — like Astrologers, Journalists, European Doctors in the late 10th Century, and Economists (both European and otherwise) in the 20th Century.

Pessimism and Optimism.

It is easier to carry an umbrella, than it is to forecast rain; as it is to be alarmed by a belt that looks like a snake, than to be bitten by a snake that looks like a belt.

While someone who always carries around an umbrella expecting rain might be described as a “pessimist”, this is purely a matter of viewpoint. You could argue that the individual lives in California (like me), where we don’t get enough rain, and (like me) loves rain — and walks around with an umbrella (sadly, unlike me), in eternal hope that it is going to rain. Rather than “Pessimism” or “Optimism”, a better word is probably “Preparedness” for the unexpected, both fortunate and unfortunate.

A lot more on that in Taleb’s Black Swan.

Modesty and Forgiveness.

No one is as good or bad as people think they are.

Given the highly noisy model our brains makes of the world, we probably overestimate both our strengths, and our perception of those in others. Hence, we need to “correct the model” with a healthy dose of modesty. The same applies to weaknesses — we are probably far too harsh on ourselves and as we are on others.

Ajahn Brahm’s Two Crooked Bricks is a good parable highlighting this point.

Happy thinking, little tea leaves!