On Politics
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On Politics

Election Projections

Predicting the 2019 Sri Lankan Presidential Election

Can we use early results to project and predict the final result? And if so, how accurate would such a projection be?

The Experiment

  • I assumed that election results were reported in order of result size. Starting with smaller results like postal votes. Ending with larger polling divisions like Homagama, Kaduwela, and Nuwara Eliya-Maskeliya.
  • For each set of reported results, I built a linear regression model that predicted the final result based on these reported results. The model was trained on the results of the previous six presidential elections.
  • To validate if my predictions were reasonable, I also computed “error bounds” of the statistics.

2015 Results

Vanni electoral district — Postal Votes
Kayts Polling Division
2015 Sri Lankan Presidential Elections — Realtime Projected Results
2015 Sri Lankan Presidential Elections — Realtime Projected Results — Zoomed in
Hanguranketha Polling Division
Colombo North Polling Divisions
2015 Sri Lankan Presidential Election — Final Results
2015 Sri Lankan Presidential Elections — Realtime Results and Projections

2010 Results

2010 Sri Lankan Presidential Elections — Realtime Projected Results

2005 Results

2005 Sri Lankan Presidential Elections — Realtime Projected Results

Concluding thoughts

Bonus: Shameless Plug

Sketches from Serendip (Sketch No. III)

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Nuwan I. Senaratna

I am a Computer Scientist and Musician by training. A writer with interests in Philosophy, Economics, Technology, Politics, Business, the Arts and Fiction.