How to write a manifesto

A Brit, an Armenian and a Kenyan walk into a polling booth…

Nuwan I. Senaratna
Nov 4 · 4 min read

Let’s suppose you are a presidential election candidate. Suppose you are busy writing your manifesto. What should you put in it?

That depends. On many things. For one, who is going to read your manifesto?

A Brit, an Armenian, or a Kenyan?

Britain, Armenia, and Kenya

Many factors divide Sri Lanka. Religion and Ethnicity are the usual suspects. But I’d argue that the biggest villains are economics in general, and economic inequality in particular.

One could argue that the real reason for the 30-year war, was not ethnic, but economic. Would the rebels have taken arms if their economic lot was good? Economics was also undoubtedly at the root of the two leftist insurrections in 1971 and 1987.

The numbers are clear. The poorest 10% of Sri Lankans are responsible for only 2.9% of income or expenditure. While the wealthiest 10% are responsible for about 33.3%. The 80% in the middle, take the remaining 63.8%.

Extrapolating these numbers on Sri Lankan’s GDP per capita of $13K (at purchasing power parity), the wealthiest 10% would have a GDP per capita of $45K (approximately equal to the United Kingdom). The middle 80% would have $11K (like Armenia). The bottom, $4K (like Kenya).

Hence, you might argue that Sri Lanka’s divisions lie across Sinhala-Tamil-and Muslim. Or Buddhism-Hinduism-Islam-and Christianity. But they actually lie across Britain-Armenia-and Kenya.

Three very different Sri Lankas.

What Sri Lankans want

I like to visualize Britain, Armenia, and Kenya relative to Abraham Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs.

At the bottom, there are Physiological needs like Health, Food, and Shelter. Next, there are “Safety” needs like Personal, Emotional, and Financial safety. Next, there are social needs, self-esteem needs, self-actualization needs, and self -transcendence needs.

While this is a gross simplification (and un-researched), it seems that Kenyan Voters (relatively) care most about Physiological needs. Armenian Voters about Safety needs. And British Voters, the “higher” needs.

[Apologies again for the over-simplification. In the end, it’s only a model. And all models are wrong. It is just that some models are useful. And I believe this model is.]

What to put in your manifesto

Satisfying Kenyan Voters is uncontroversial. Historically, Sri Lanka has had a generous healthcare, and welfare system, and most presidential candidates would keep this intact. Ideally, improve it.

But beyond Kenya, things get complicated.

Armenians don’t worry about Physiological needs “in the moment”, but are worried about satisfying these in the future. Hence, they look for “security”. Personal, Emotional, and most importantly, Financial security.

Brits, on the other hand, have got both Physiological and Safety needs covered, and aspire for higher things. In this election, as in previous elections, they yearn for words like “democracy”, “good governance”, the “rule of law” and “reform”.

There is an obvious conflict between Britain and Armenia.

Collision Course

Except for a few places (e.g. London, I mean, Colombo), the majority of Sri Lankans are citizens of Armenia. Hence, understandbaly, most politicians have courted the Armenian vote.

The primary strategy for satisfying Armenia’s need for “safety” has been political patronage. Powerful politicians become ministers of this, that or the other ministry. These ministers have thousands of jobs in their gift. These jobs go to loyal Armenians.

The Brits have always looked down on this “disease” of patronage. Their cure usually focusses on the “supply-side”. I.e. the side of the politician. Better democracy, transparency, and accountability combined with reform (like reducing the power of ministers), that downsize the “gift” that politicians own.

Unfortunately, this “supply-side” activism does not deal with the main problem. The “demand-side”. You might clip the wings (or head) of a corrupt politician. But what do you tell the thousands of Armenians whose livelihoods are also in the balance?

Killing the Goose

Any presidential candidate who wants to win both the British vote and the Armenian vote will have to find a way of convincing the Armenians to kill the goose that lays their golden eggs.

On the plus side, many factors would support a Goose Slaughter.

  • Money. A shift away from patronage to “real jobs” would not need more money. We would move money away from, say, inefficient departments to supporting vocational training.
  • Jobs. There is no shortage of jobs. Quite the opposite. Sri Lanka has a severe labour shortage. It’s a matter of convincing people to move away from “safe” jobs to “real” jobs.
  • Motivation. Among the majority of Armenians there is a strong motivation to get out of political patronage. But they can’t break the vicious cycle.

On the minus side, there will probably be considerable short-term pain. Clearly for the ministerial goose.

For example, who will tell thousands of “Arts Graduates”, that their philosophy degrees are useless? And that they will have to take jobs in “vocational” areas?

An obvious step down for “education”-worshipping Armenians.

Concluding Confessions

This article is partly a letter to my “London-Liberal” friends. They are continually whinging about “supply-side” aspirations like “democracy”, “good governance”, and the “rule of law”. They don’t see Sri Lanka for what it is. They probably think everyone is like them. Or at least should be like them. A San Francisco-esque caricature of Sri Lanka. They should focus less on fancy words and more on killing geese.

This article is also partly a challenge to presidential candidates or aspiring presidential candidates. Do you have a plan that will keep Britain, Armenia and Kenya all happy?

If a Brit, an Armenian and a Kenyan walk into a polling booth, can you win all three votes?

On Politics

Articles on Politics, and Political Science, by Nuwan I. Senaratna

Nuwan I. Senaratna

Written by

I am a Computer Scientist and Musician by training. A writer with interests in Philosophy, Economics, Technology, Politics, Business, the Arts and Fiction.

On Politics

Articles on Politics, and Political Science, by Nuwan I. Senaratna

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