The “Easiest” Seats
How to win a Parliamentary Election in Sri Lanka
Parliamentary Elections in Sri Lanka follow a Proportional Representation system. Hence, ideally, the number of seats a party holds in parliament should be proportional to the number of votes it wins.
However, in practice, seats are not proportional votes for the following reasons:
- Bonus Seat: The winning party in each Electoral District gets one bonus seat.
- 5% Rule: Any party getting less than 5% of the votes in a District does not qualify for seats.
- Province Seats: Of the 196 seats allocated to districts, 160 are allocated proportionally, and the remaining 36 are allocated 4 each per province. Hence, districts in smaller provinces are favored over bigger ones.
- Rounding errors
I discuss this in greater detail in (Not so) Proportional Representation.
Hence, some seats need fewer votes than other seats. This is what I mean by “Easiest”. Or what seats required the fewest number of votes?4
The List
Here is a list of the Sri Lankan Parliament’s 225 seats, based on 1,000,000 Monte-Carlo simulations of hypothetical elections.
It assumes the seat allocation to districts in the last (2020) Parliamentary Election.
The number of votes listed is the median cumulative number of votes in scenarios where the said seat was won.
The 10 “Easiest” Seats to Win
1. 21K Vanni-1
2. 49K Puttalam-1
3. 78K Moneragala-1
4. 108K Jaffna-1
5. 138K Polonnaruwa-1
6. 169K Nuwara-Eliya-1
7. 199K National List-1
8. 200K Hambantota-1
9. 232K Badulla-1
10. 264K Kegalle-1
The Rest
11. 297K Digamadulla-1
12. 330K Anuradhapura-1
13. 363K Ratnapura-1
14. 398K Matale-1
15. 434K Trincomalee-1
16. 471K Batticaloa-1
17. 473K Trincomalee-2
18. 512K Galle-1
19. 552K Kalutara-1
20. 592K Matara-1
21. 594K National List-2
22. 633K Kandy-1
23. 682K Kurunegala-1
24. 741K Colombo-1
25. 802K Gampaha-1
26. 844K Vanni-2
27. 844K Vanni-3
28. 899K Puttalam-2
29. 954K Moneragala-2
30. 955K Moneragala-3
31. 996K National List-3
32. 1015K Jaffna-2
33. 1075K Nuwara-Eliya-2
34. 1136K Polonnaruwa-3
35. 1138K Jaffna-3
36. 1140K Polonnaruwa-2
37. 1203K Hambantota-2
38. 1265K Badulla-2
39. 1327K Kegalle-2
40. 1387K National List-4
41. 1390K Anuradhapura-2
42. 1392K Hambantota-3
43. 1456K Digamadulla-2
44. 1495K Colombo-2
45. 1560K Ratnapura-2
46. 1562K Digamadulla-3
47. 1627K Trincomalee-3
48. 1667K Vanni-4
49. 1722K Kurunegala-2
50. 1794K Matale-3
51. 1798K National List-5
52. 1842K Gampaha-2
53. 1845K Matale-2
54. 1915K Kandy-2
55. 1989K Batticaloa-3
56. 1991K Batticaloa-2
57. 2066K Galle-2
58. 2143K Kalutara-2
59. 2190K National List-6
60. 2223K Matara-2
61. 2226K Matara-3
62. 2280K Puttalam-3
63. 2281K Puttalam-4
64. 2335K Moneragala-4
65. 2375K Vanni-5
66. 2432K Jaffna-4
67. 2492K Nuwara-Eliya-3
68. 2492K Nuwara-Eliya-4
69. 2550K Polonnaruwa-4
70. 2587K National List-7
71. 2609K Hambantota-4
72. 2671K Badulla-3
73. 2733K Kegalle-3
74. 2734K Badulla-4
75. 2735K Kegalle-4
76. 2798K Anuradhapura-3
77. 2798K Anuradhapura-4
78. 2859K Digamadulla-4
79. 2924K Ratnapura-3
80. 2990K Colombo-3
81. 2998K National List-8
82. 3053K Trincomalee-4
83. 3122K Kurunegala-3
84. 3189K Matale-4
85. 3223K Vanni-6
86. 3294K Gampaha-3
87. 3363K Batticaloa-4
88. 3394K National List-9
89. 3437K Kandy-3
90. 3488K Moneragala-5
91. 3565K Galle-3
92. 3566K Galle-4
93. 3620K Puttalam-5
94. 3698K Kalutara-3
95. 3773K Matara-4
96. 3777K Kalutara-4
97. 3790K National List-10
98. 3830K Polonnaruwa-5
99. 3887K Jaffna-5
100. 3945K Nuwara-Eliya-5
101. 4006K Hambantota-5
102. 4067K Badulla-5
103. 4128K Kegalle-5
104. 4190K Anuradhapura-5
105. 4196K National List-11
106. 4252K Digamadulla-5
107. 4316K Ratnapura-4
108. 4317K Ratnapura-5
109. 4382K Colombo-4
110. 4441K Matale-5
111. 4510K Kurunegala-4
112. 4564K Moneragala-6
113. 4587K National List-12
114. 4628K Batticaloa-5
115. 4682K Puttalam-6
116. 4755K Gampaha-4
117. 4828K Kandy-4
118. 4830K Kandy-5
119. 4888K Jaffna-6
120. 4962K Galle-5
121. 4986K National List-13
122. 5022K Nuwara-Eliya-6
123. 5096K Kalutara-5
124. 5175K Matara-5
125. 5236K Hambantota-6
126. 5296K Badulla-6
127. 5357K Kegalle-6
128. 5387K National List-14
129. 5418K Digamadulla-6
130. 5480K Anuradhapura-6
131. 5543K Ratnapura-6
132. 5591K Puttalam-7
133. 5657K Colombo-5
134. 5703K Jaffna-7
135. 5772K Kurunegala-5
136. 5775K Kurunegala-6
137. 5786K National List-15
138. 5829K Nuwara-Eliya-7
139. 5900K Gampaha-5
140. 5971K Kandy-6
141. 6028K Hambantota-7
142. 6082K Digamadulla-7
143. 6142K Badulla-7
144. 6173K National List-16
145. 6201K Kegalle-7
146. 6276K Galle-6
147. 6336K Anuradhapura-7
148. 6386K Puttalam-8
149. 6462K Kalutara-6
150. 6535K Matara-6
151. 6580K National List-17
152. 6599K Ratnapura-7
153. 6664K Colombo-6
154. 6672K Colombo-7
155. 6722K Nuwara-Eliya-8
156. 6788K Kurunegala-7
157. 6840K Badulla-8
158. 6912K Gampaha-6
159. 6963K National List-18
160. 6970K Kegalle-8
161. 7027K Anuradhapura-8
162. 7032K Gampaha-7
163. 7104K Kandy-7
164. 7165K Matara-7
165. 7238K Galle-7
166. 7300K Ratnapura-8
167. 7360K National List-19
168. 7375K Kalutara-7
169. 7434K Colombo-8
170. 7477K Badulla-9
171. 7521K Kegalle-9
172. 7586K Kurunegala-8
173. 7638K Anuradhapura-9
174. 7705K Gampaha-8
175. 7728K National List-20
176. 7776K Kandy-8
177. 7836K Ratnapura-9
178. 7901K Galle-8
179. 7964K Colombo-9
180. 8036K Kalutara-8
181. 8106K Kurunegala-9
182. 8160K Ratnapura-10
183. 8160K National List-21
184. 8230K Gampaha-9
185. 8292K Galle-9
186. 8361K Kandy-9
187. 8424K Colombo-10
188. 8489K Kalutara-9
189. 8553K National List-22
190. 8554K Kurunegala-10
191. 8608K Ratnapura-11
192. 8676K Gampaha-10
193. 8742K Kandy-10
194. 8807K Colombo-11
195. 8876K Kalutara-10
196. 8939K Kurunegala-11
197. 8958K National List-23
198. 9005K Kandy-11
199. 9076K Gampaha-11
200. 9138K Colombo-12
201. 9197K Kurunegala-12
202. 9234K Kandy-12
203. 9295K Colombo-13
204. 9320K National List-24
205. 9362K Gampaha-12
206. 9423K Kurunegala-13
207. 9486K Colombo-14
208. 9553K Gampaha-13
209. 9616K Kurunegala-14
210. 9673K Colombo-15
211. 9726K National List-25
212. 9727K Gampaha-14
213. 9771K Kurunegala-15
214. 9823K Colombo-16
215. 9888K Gampaha-15
216. 9934K Colombo-17
217. 9992K Gampaha-16
218. 10047K Colombo-18
219. 10100K Gampaha-17
220. 10118K Gampaha-18
221. 10118K National List-26
222. 10173K Colombo-19
223. 10632K National List-27
224. 10969K National List-28
225. 11532K National List-29
