Against (ESPN) Statistics
We’re past the halfway point in the MLB season and my Minnesota Twins (as of Saturday, July 18) are 50–40 and second place in the AL Central, four games behind the Kansas City Royals. Many people had them in the basement of the division this year, but they’re doing a lot better than predicted. Will it continue? This totally biased Twins fan says yes. I’m predicting a Wild Card birth.
But how do pundits and “experts” predict which teams will do well and which ones will tank? Well, history is usually a good thing to fall back on. Last year, the Twins ended the season 70–92, last in the division. In April, their $54 million investment, pitcher Ervin Santana, was suspended 80 games for testing positive for Stanozolol, a PED. The Twins have successfully defied this recent history, at least to this point in the season.
Of course, there are no 100% foolproof measures to predict if a team will do well or not. That’s what makes sports entertaining to watch. It is one thing to use “established” statistics to try to make predictions about a season, such as a team’s record from their previous season, moves in the offseason, etc. But increasingly, useless statistics seem to be presented and promoted in an effort to create the illusion of foolproof measures at work. There is no bigger perpetrator of such a practice than ESPN.
Turn on ESPN and see how long it takes until a commercial from DraftKings or some other fantasy sports league plays. Despite what ESPN says publicly, this is a pretty blatant endorsement of sports gambling, no matter how you slice it. The problem is not with gambling, but with ESPN taking advantage of the nature of gambling to lure in more viewers and thus more money for their business partners and themselves. Of course, a sports gambler is going to take any advantage available to increase the chances of a payout — this is where ESPN’s useless statistics come in.
The statistics offered by ESPN often are not established in any way — that is, they would not appear on the back of a trading card for a player or a team. These are coincidence stats and even then, they offer no real advantage to speak of. For example:
What do “statistics” like these add to the larger conversation? They are arbitrary at best and slimy at worst. Me, I roll my eyes and change the channel. But for the professional gambler, the person whose life is so wrapped up in sports that ESPN is the televised gospel, well, the implications are inherent.
Again, I’m not saying that statistics are useless. At the end of the season, I will be interested in seeing how many home runs the Twins hit. I will be interested in seeing how many times they beat their Wild Card opponent during the season. But if the preview for the game comes on ESPN and there’s a graphic that reads, “Twins: Practice indoors when it snows,” I’m changing the channel and you should, too.
