[NFL Preview] The Unbearable Lightness of Zero Super Bowl Rings: Detroit Lions Season Preview
Here we are, back in September — time to revel in the infinite sadness that is being a Detroit Lions fan. Right now, it’s all up in the air. The Lions are, realistically, one of the tougher teams to write a preseason forecast for because SO MUCH is a mystery, but hey! Guess what?! WE FINALLY HAVE AN OFFENSE.
OFFENSE
Let’s just jump right in there! The Lions were ranked 19th offensively overall last year, but here’s my prediction: We’ll be Top 5 this year. This might sound ridiculous to anyone who hasn’t been keeping on eye on the Lions, but let’s break it down, shall we?
The offensive line will majorly improve this season, & I do expect to see them stay in the top five. Stafford, Ebron, Johnson, Bell, Tate, Riddick, Abdullah… you’ve gotta be at least a little turned on by that lineup.
THE RUNNING GAME
In terms of the running game, the Lions ranked 28th in the league in rushing yards last season. Part of this was a disappointing performance from Theo Riddick, but this’ll change this season. You’ll see him snaking his way around when it comes to third down carries — the staff likes him in this role & it’s a strong one for him. Riddick is definitely an asset — more of one than he looked last season when competing with Reggie Bush for carries.
The team leader in carries last year, though, was Joique Bell, with 58% of carries, but what was the hitch that prevented the team from being better? As much as I love him, I’m just gonna say it: Reggie. This year, though, expect to see Bell acing third-&-short situations, expect to see him as Abdullah’s relief, & expect to see him more at the beginning of the season than toward the middle or the end once Abdullah really gets locked into step.
I keep mentioning Abdullah — the much-hyped youngin’ out of Nebraska. Do hyped players make me nervous? Yes. Do I think Abdullah will live up to the hype? Mostly (though not totally). The question is will he be the all-purpose yards leader for this Lions offense? To be honest, I’d be shocked if we don’t see him getting a good 15 touches a game, but if he doesn’t blow up as a star in the first few weeks, there’s no reason to panic for Lions fans — this is a kid who never got over 300 carries a season in college, so he’s gotta be paced as the season begins, especially if they want to rely heavily on him in the tougher games mid-season. (Another plus with Abdullah is that he can return kicks/punts extremely well.)
I know, we can’t directly translate NCAA numbers to NFL numbers, but Abdullah’s are worth taking a look at: 264 carries, 1611 rushing yards, 22 receptions, 269 receiving yards, 22 TDs. If you’re a Detroit fan, you’re probably anxiously shaking your foot right now, needing some alone time with those numbers. They’re sexy, I know.
THE RECEIVING GAME
In terms of wideouts, it all hinges on one thing: DON’T GET HURT, OL’ MAN MEGATRON. Yes, Golden Tate is a huge asset, & if he played on any team but the Lions, he’d be a priority WR, but the fact of the matter is that the Lions are just better when Calvin Johnson is on the field. In the 2014 season, he missed three games & might as well have missed two more (only one target vs. the Bills & two vs. Jets), but he still surpassed 1,000 yards for the fifth straight season.
What does this all come down to? He can’t get hurt. He just can’t. Unless something absolutely disastrous happens (which… it’s the Lions, so it’s always possible), my bet is that Stafford having strong weapons across the field this year (including Eric Ebron) will take some of the oft-frantic workload off of Johnson. Megatron’s an elite receiver who needs to keep getting his mitts on the ball in order for the Lions offense to progress, though, despite the multitude of capable hands on the field.
Before I touch the enigma that is Matthew Stafford, though, there’s another seemingly-small cog in the Detroit machine that — as we saw last year — could make or break the team: kicking. They basically lost the division title last year because they (read: Nate Freese & Alex Henery) couldn’t kick to save their lives — missing every kick in a three-point at home loss to Buffalo, along with their first eight of nine 40+ field goals. The off-season resigning of late-addition Matt Prater will be a plus for a team that often needs those extra couple of points to give them the W.
THE STAFFORD GAME
Many of people’s questions about the Lions seem to revolve around all the new bodies on the field, but let’s be honest: If Matthew Stafford royally fucks things up, it hardly matters how good the rest of the team is. It’s a QB league, & Stafford needs to step the hell up. Don’t mistake my bluntness for anger, though, because I do like Stafford as a QB (not as a human… I mean, have you seen those horrible frat-douche photos from his wedding? Yikes.)
Then again, I may just be a slut for underperformance, since I’m also an Iowa Hawkeyes fan who’s spent the better part of the past decade defending Kirk Ferentz. (Side note: my patience clock ran out on him at the end of last season.)
I do think Stafford has what it takes, but I’m sick & tired of talking about his “potential.” Jim Caldwell has been clear in stating that he thinks people underappreciate Stafford, which is almost certainly true, & OC Joe Lombardi has been gushing about how Stafford’s made leaps & bounds in terms of his decision making this offseason.
The preseason numbers back that up: he went 19/25 — a 6% increase in completion from last season — & threw no interceptions. Overall, this was Stafford’s best preseason since 2011 — the year that would go on to be the best of his career. If these numbers are all proof positive of Caldwell & Lombardi’s claims about Stafford’s decision-making improvement — paired with the fact that the team’s strengthened offense will take some of the throwing pressure off of him — look out for Stafford to have the best season of his career.
THE DEFENSE
Now for the big question mark: the D-Line. We’ve got no Suh. No Fairley. No Moseley. So what the hell do we have? Well, in my mind, enough to be a top 12–15 defensive team, but not a hell of a lot more.
Last year, the Lions led the league in rushing defense — & kept hold of the lower number of yards allowed by any team since 2010. In particular, Ziggy Ansah finished out with 49 tackles, 3 forced fumbles, & 7.5 sacks. This year, he needs to step up. He can be a top tier pass-rusher, but will he? I don’t know. I just don’t know what to say here. He’s got a few things working for him, including his size, speed, & increasing nuance at the position (as we began to see by the end of last season), but I’m just so frustrated that we have no one left in Detroit to do any stomping. (JK. Or am I?)
So, other small-ish pluses to the Lions’ D:
1] A healthy Stephen Tulloch. Let’s be real, though, he’ll probably tear a couple of ACLs doing whatever dance trend is possible come late October.
2] Darius Slay. He slayed Dez Bryant in the playoffs. (The end. This entire article existed only so I could make that pun.)
3] Caraun Reid, who’s a creepy Suh fanboy. Seriously, this guy is borderline obsessed with Suh & might end up wearing a suit of his skin, but hey… it’d be worth it for some Ws.
What will need to happen, though, is that at the end of this season, the Lions sit down & have a serious conversation about what they do to revamp their defense come draft time, since Haloti Ngata & Jason Jones aren’t as spry as they used to be. (Read: they’re old.)
THE SCHEDULE
There’s just no getting around it: The Lions’ 2015 schedule is brutal. I know it sounds like a preemptive cop-out, but I do think we’ll see at least a couple of losses that say more about their schedule than about their players.
During the first four weeks, three of their four opponents will likely end up in the playoffs:
Wk 1: @ Chargers / L (but barely)
Wk 2: @ Vikings / W
Wk 3: Broncos / L
Wk 4: @ Seahawks / L (I would love nothing more than to see Golden Tate totally annihilate them, though)
They rebound a bit in week 5:
Wk 5: Cardinals / W
Wk 6: Bears / W
Wk 7: Vikings / W
Wk 8: @ Chiefs / L (the Chiefs always plays well against the Lions, plus this is that dumbass London game)
Wk 9: BYE
So by their bye, my guess is they end up 4–4 or 5–3, but those divisional games are key. If they can’t prove themselves there, I’ll be incredibly nervous.
Moving on, I’ll be another year older (thank God for the bye week so I don’t have to watch my team lose on my birthday), & weeks 10–13 will be pretty up in the air minus the (ugh) Packers:
Wk 10: @ Packers / L
Wk 11: Raiders / W
Wk 12: Eagles / W
Wk 13: Packers / L
I could see 11 & 12 going either way, so we’re hovering around 6–6 here, probably.
Then by the close of the season, maybe we’ll finally get some goddamn snow (I’m missing winter big time), along with:
Wk 14: @ Rams / W
Wk 15: @ Saints / W (I think we’ll pull it out here)
Wk 16: 49ers / W
Wk 17: @ Bears / W
— to close out the season somewhere around 10–6.
All-in-all, I’m nervous. I think the Lions will finish in the top half of the NFC & 2nd in the NFC North. There’s the return of (*cough* piece of shit *cough*) Adrian Peterson & the acquisition of Mike Wallace by the Vikings — along with their solid D, & the NFC North isn’t gonna be as narrow as it looked by the end of last year. I DO, however, think that this won’t pose a stumbling block for the Lions — it’ll just make the games a bit more entertaining to watch.
Is there a chance they could take 1st in the North? Maybe. I say this for one reason & one reason only: Week 17 last year. The Lions lost to the Packers AT Lambeau, but only by 10 points — the thing that secured the division title. There were some missing pieces for the Lions during that time, but they’ve found them in Bell, Riddick, Abdullah, a healthy Megatron & Tulloch. There are a lot of question marks both on O & D, so I’m not comfortable making the prediction that they’ll end up 1st in the NFC North, BUT I do think it’s possible.
That said, I could see them very well being able to make it into the playoffs as a wildcard sixth seed. I have hope. Cautious hope, but hope.
AT-A-GLANCE PREDICTIONS
- Abdullah takes over in carries, supplemented — especially on third down, & early in the season — by Bell & Tate
- Megatron has an easier job staying healthy this season
- Stafford steps up his game for the best season he’s had since 2011 — or maybe ever
- Ansah, Ngati, & Jones play decently on D, but to visibly decreased numbers from last year
- We end the season at 10–6, 2nd in the NFC North, & with a playoff berth via wildcard
- Roary continues to be the coolest mascot in the NFL
