Should We Hold Our Breaths For a Triple Crown This Weekend?
Most people seem to pick their favorite time of year based on what it’s like outside. I’m not one of those people — spring & fall give me allergies, winter makes my prematurely-aged joints ache like hell, & summer… well, I’m allergic to the sun. No, really. I’m allergic to the sun. Not a joke. Because I can’t have favorite seasons, I instead pick favorite sports seasons — one of which is upon us right now: TRIPLE CROWN TIME.
It seems like every year, I write about how much I want to see a Triple Crown. Last year, in particular, I felt California Chrome’s Belmont loss down to my marrow. It’s not an exaggeration when I say I fell to the floor sobbing when he couldn’t push through to the end. The Triple Crown is like my World Series, my Super Bowl, my NBA Finals — but last time it happened was 1978. For some perspective, this was the year the Walkman was introduced, the year Fleetwood Mac’s Rumours won album of the year, the year Jonestown happened. A goddamned long time, in other words.
Last year’s heartbreaking TC failure was especially infuriating because of just how storied California Chrome was. When co-owner Steve Coburn had an epic meltdown live on television post-race, many treated him as a bitter old man, but personally, I thought every single point he made had merit.
An excerpt, on California Chrome & the Triple Crown:
“This is his third big race. These other horses, they always set them out [to run only in the Belmont]. They set them out to try to upset the apple cart. I’m 61 years old and I’ll never see in my lifetime, I’ll never see another Triple Crown winner because of the way they do this. It’s not fair to the horses that have been in the game since day one.
“I look at it this way, if you can’t make enough points to get into the Kentucky Derby, you can’t race in the other two races. It’s all or nothing. Because this is not fair to these horses that have been running their guts out for these people and for the people that believe in them to have somebody to come up. This is the coward’s way out in my opinion, this is the coward’s way out.”
And he’s right. Absolutely right. Mainstream sports media heartily rebuffed Coburn’s claim that California Chrome had a “target on his back,” but the fact is, when you’re the favorite (as American Pharoah [YES, I KNOW HIS NAME IS SPELLED WRONG… THIS HAS BEEN DRIVING ME NUTS ALL SEASON]) will be this weekend, you get picked on. Don’t be surprised to see American Pharoah get out of the gate quickly, but then be run up on by one or two horses trying to box him out. Even beyond the potential collusion slash bitterness aspects of the race, the numbers are wholly against American Pharoah (whom I keep wanting to call “AP” but I wouldn’t insult a horse by likening him to Adrian Peterson that way).
Last year, California Chrome was 13th horse who’d won the Kentucky Derby & the Preakness, but failed to win the Belmont since Affirmed won the TC in ‘78. Eight of the 13 lost to horses who hadn’t even run in the Preakness — hearkening back to Coburn’s rant. Many people have written at length about how this track is so different — it’s sandy, it’s humid, & — most importantly — it’s long. At 1.5 miles, it’s often the longest race any horse or jockey is asked to run. On the whole, the environment is completely unlike the ones the horses & jockeys are used to, adding in a further level of complication, along with the fact that the vast majority of horses just aren’t trained as frequently & vigorously as they were pre-1980.
But what about American Pharoah? Can he be the Cinderella story we all thought we were so close to getting last year with California Chrome? I’d say chances are good, but not foolproof — Pharoah’s biggest strength is that he absolutely dominated the Preakness field, winning by seven full lengths. He’s got the power to bust out of the gate strong & he’s got the endurance to push himself a little harder than normal at the end, if need be. Plus, he drew fifth post — a spot that means he won’t have to worm his way around to get away from the rails this time (like he did in the Preakness). Really, he couldn’t have asked for a better place to jump from — especially in a field that’s now down to only eight horses. Plus, one key thing that would present as a potential complication for other horses would really only benefits American Pharoah — the weather. There’s a 50% chance of rain, & he’s shown that he does well in the slop — mud doesn’t stop him the way it does many other horses.
Famed owner Bob Baffert claims that American Pharoah is the best horse he’s run, saying “This is the only horse I’ve never had to talk people into how good he is. […] He’s done all the talking.” My big reservation is that, like many horses, Pharoah’s bred more for speed than for distance. The Belmont is just hard.
So the question remains: who has the potential to crash another Triple Crown effort? I’d keep my eye on Belmont mainstay Todd Pletcher’s Materiality. Materiality skipped the Preakness (giving him some much-needed rest), he’s bred more for distance than American Pharoah is, & he’s been practicing on the Belmont sand for weeks (whereas Pharoah will only have a couple of days’ practice on it).
If Pharoah stumbles at all (& I mean even the tiniest bit), Materiality has the maneuverability to take full advantage & weave his way up from far behind, as he did at the Derby. I’m a big Todd Pletcher fan, & part of the reason is that his horses are just so much fun to watch at Belmont. Pletcher trains them for this race, & it shows: he’s finished first or second in five of the last eight years — & none of those five horses were favorites.
I want to see it. I do. I hesitate to say that I’m skeptical of American Pharoah, but my gut is telling me Materiality’ll pull it out this weekend. Sure, I’ll feel like an asshole forever if Pharoah makes history & I called against him, but hey — at least I’ll finally get to see it happen.
