Negative Regression Candidates
These players have had great first halves of the season. Here are a few reasons they might not repeat them in the second half.
Avisail Garcia
It blows my mind that people are actually considering Garcia’s first half anything more than a lucky stretch. a .370+ BABIP with no substantial change in batted ball profile is driving the resurgence. His K rate is down a little bit which is nice, but his walk rate is also down, so he’s not exactly being more selective. It is apparent that the White Sox are not fully buying it either, as they just traded for future corner OF Eloy Jimenez.
Ervin Santana
In 2016 Ervin had a 3.38 ERA, which is certainly useful. According to the advanced stats, it looked like he earned it for the most part, with maybe a tad bit of luck thrown in. Since then he is walking more batters, striking out fewer batters and giving up more home runs, yet somehow his ERA is lower. A low BABIP and high strand rate have created a two run difference between his ERA and FIP. The bad month is coming (probably).
Greg Holland
Holland has been one of the biggest steals so far this season. I was FIRMLY planted in the Ottovino camp preseason but Holland has been MUCH better, so I was pretty wrong about that one. Holland has absolutely been great. But over the past few weeks the Rockies, as a whole, have started to look like the team we all thought they were preseason. They have dropped from 90% postseason chance to 49.5% (via Fangraphs) in just 26 days, five of which were the all-star break. Fewer wins means fewer saves means less value. The other part that worries me is Holland’s potential to break down in the second half. After missing all of last season there is significant tiring risk in addition to the already present injury risk.
Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge is obvious break out star from the first half. He’s ranked in the top five right now regardless of format. He is currently on pace for about 55 homers. I think the power will continue in the second half, but the other stats will see some significant regression. Judge’s big question mark preseason was K rate. Everyone knew he could hit bombs, but could he make enough contact? Well, it started off as a big improvement with a 26% rate in April. It rose to 29% in May and June. Now in July its at 36% (although it’s a very small sample). Overall it’s certainly something to keep an eye on. Aaron Judge has established himself as an incredible baseball player, but he’s not Barry Bonds (yet).
