PGA Tour Sony Open in Hawaii Draftkings Picks + DFS Golf Strategy

Source: PGAtour.com; Heavy.com

Last week was merely a warm-up for the real beginning of the PGA Tour daily fantasy season. This week, the PGA Tour stays in Hawaii with its first full-field event of the season. Before I get into my thoughts on the Sony Open and my picks for the tournament, I want to share some basic daily fantasy golf strategy:

1. Pick Golfers that Will Make the Cut— the name of the game when it comes to DFS Golf is to have all of your golfers make the cut. Having six golfers who survive the cut, and one or two in the top ten will almost guarantee you a solid return on investment (ROI) on Sunday afternoon. If you have one golfer miss the cut, you almost must pick the winner of the tournament. If you have two golfers miss the cut, you must pick the winner of the tournament and another golfer in the top 3.
2. Be Contrarian Without being Overly Risky — As any DFS player knows, it pays to be contrarian if you can manage to do so successfully. Most people think that in DFS Golf, you have to pick bottom-of-the-barrel players to be contrarian. Not so fast. In fields with anywhere between 125 and 145 players, plenty of safe contrarian plays can be found in the $8,500–$7,000 salary range. For instance, a player like Marc Leishman who normally falls in the aforementioned salary range will normally go over-looked because he’ll fall between popular names such as Zach Johnson and Bill Haas who will garner much greater ownership.
3. If Playing Multiple Lineups, Use a Core Group of Players — As with other DFS sports, you want to avoid betting against yourself. By this, I mean that you want to have some sort of consistency throughout your lineups. You could play 5 lineups with a total of 30 different players, but by doing that you are almost ensuring that only one of your lineups will be in the money. Conversely, if you select a core group of players that you include in most, if not all, of your lineups, you are increasing your chances of ending in the money on a majority of your lineups, providing that you made good picks. You want the core to be made-up of players that you are positive will make the cut and have a decent finish. I personally like to make my core up of players in the $9,000–$7,500 range, and then sprinkle in players from outside that range.
4. Ride the Hot Hand — Golf is just like any other sport, in the sense that outside the studs who always play well, players tend to play well in streaks. Don’t over-think playing someone who is hot.
5. Match the Course with your Players — This does not necessarily require delving into the advanced statistics such as strokes-gained tee-to-green, and proximity to the hole from 225 yards in the rough in the neighbor’s backyard, etc. Matching a course with your players is as simple as looking at the type of course (i.e. short or long, wide or narrow, big or small greens) and picking the players that fit the style of play required. If the course is 7,800 yards and has fairways wider than the Mississippi River, then pack your lineups with big hitters who are going to be hitting a lot of wedges into the greens. If the course is 7,200 yards and has pencil thin fairways, you may want to consider guys like Francesco Molinari, who never misses a fairway, but also drives the ball 270 yards.
6. When Choosing Between Two Players, Always Pick the One with a Better Short Game — Anyone who plays golf knows that short game is the most important aspect of the game. The majority of your shots during a round are on or around the green. When it comes to short-game on the PGA tour, it is quite simple — if you don’t have it, you wont win. For instance, look at Lucas Glover. He has been one of the best ball-strikers of in recent memory, but his putting is atrocious. As a result, his career has been somewhat of a disappointment. Outside of his one U.S. Open victory in 2009, he has only three victories in 16 seasons, despite being one of the tours most consistent ball-strikers. You want guys in your lineup that will get up and down for par on 18 to make the cut on Friday afternoon. You don’t want that guy who will miss a three footer to miss the cut and ruin your lineup.

Ok, onto my picks for the 2017 Sony Open.

Waialae Country Club will host the first full field tournament of the year and it happens to be one of the shortest courses on tour. Waialae comes in at 7,044 yards and is a par 70. This means that there are only 2 par 5s on the course and par 4 scoring will be one of the most important statistics to look at this week. Lack of driving distance wont be a disadvantage this week, but it will certainly help, as long as you can hit fairways. As a matter of fact, Waialae has been among the most difficult courses to drive the ball on over the past decade, so this week I would tend to favor guys who keep the ball in the short grass. In addition, putting will be incredibly important this week because Waialae has some of the largest greens on the PGA tour.

$11,500-$9,000

Jordan Spieth ($11,500) — Most expensive guy on the board, but he’s coming into this tournament with a lot of confidence after his final round at the SBS Tournament of Champions.

Hideki Matsuyama ($11,000) — Has finished in the top-2 in his last six starts of the season, including 4 wins. You at least have to give this guy a look this week.

Jimmy Walker ($9,900) — A former winner at this course who always plays well in Hawaii in January.

Paul Casey ($9,500)— Paul may fly under the radar this week, but he was top 14 on tour last year in Par 4 scoring and he has really revamped his game over the past few years to get back to one of the best players in the world. He is also currently 6th in stokes gained tee-to-green.

$8,900-$8,000

Scott Piercy ($8,900) — Like Leishman, I think Piercy will go under-owned because of the big names surrounding him this week. Piercy was runner-up in 2015 at Waialae and put together one of the best seasons of his career last season.

Marc Leishman ($8,200) — Marc is one of those reasonably priced contrarian picks that I talked about earlier. He is priced between Palmer and Knox, two semi-big name players and does not have the same name recognition amongst casual DFS players. Leishman was top 14 in par 4 scoring last year and was top 4 in strokes gained putting. He will surely be under-owned this week, but is a safe bet for a good finish.

Keegan Bradley ($8,000) — Keegan is one of the best drivers of the golf ball on tour and he really came back into his old form last year. I see him continuing the good play and posting a solid finish at a course that demands good play off of the tee.

Pat Perez ($8,000) — Pat is a fellow Chiver and is playing fantastic golf as of late. Ride the hot hand.

$7,900-$7000

Jason Dufner ($7,600) — DufDaddy. Looks like he is “rounding” back into form both physically and with his play on the course. No one likes a skinny Dufner. Looks like he is back, and he is one of my favorite golfers to have a break-out season.

Chez Reavie ($7,500) — A terribly unattractive name in the world of DFS golf, but that’s why I like him this week. He is incredibly consistent and should have a good finish.

Harris English ($7,500) — Harris has finished in the top 10 at this tournament three out of this last four appearances and has touted Waialae as one of his favorite courses on tour. Waialae has huge greens and English showed his strong putting skills last season by finishing sixth in strokes-gained-putting.

Hudson Swafford ($7,000) — Like I said in the most recent Beer Money podcast, Swafford is a guy you almost have to have in your lineups every week. This dude has figured out how to play golf for a living; you make cuts. While he only had one Top-10 last season, he only missed a hand-full of cuts.

$6,900-$6,000

Jerry Kelly ($6,800) — Like English, he appears to be a horse for the course here, finishing in the top ten each of this last three appearances. Kelly has always been known as one of the straightest hitters on tour, which seems to lead to repeated success at Waialae. He also has quite the personality and is a fun guy to root for.

Brian Stuard ($6,600) — Boring, consistent player with a low price. He generally thrives on short, tight courses.

David Hearn ($6,400) — Very consistent, straight hitter. Not the most exciting play on the board, but he is a low-priced guy that has a better chance than not of missing the cut.

Bryce Molder ($6,000) — If you want to take a chance on a guy with a bottom of the barrel price, this is probably the guy. Based on his stats from last year, he is a decent driver of the golf ball (top 60) and is an excellent putter (ranked 11th).