The Ultimate, PROVEN, Guide to NFL Betting Against the Spread

I’ve always strictly been a DFS player and have never entered the world of betting against the spread (ATS). This year I decided to partner with Anarifbaby to take down an NFL confidence pick ’em pool (3–2–1 pool) for the 2016–2017 NFL season.

We dominated the league and won a cool $400. More importantly, we developed a incredibly consistent system for determining the games in which we had the most confidence. With our system, we picked nearly two out of every three games correctly, and had the highest number of correct picks 8 out of 17 weeks. With anywhere between 13 and 15 games occurring per week, the first step in betting ATS is to determine which games you don’t even want to consider touching. By narrowing down the pool of games to those that you really like, you exponentially increase you chances of successfully betting ATS. Anarifbaby and I normally narrowed the pool down to 4–6 games and then picked the three in which we had the most confidence. How did we do this? I’ll tell you:

*** Disclaimer: These strategy points are simply the methods we used during the 2016–2017 NFL season to narrow our pool of games and to ultimately make our picks. The readers of this article are by no means compelled to use these methods and we are not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of bets placed by using these strategy points.

1. BRADY — The number One rule only needs one word. You always bet the mortgage on Brady. Brady and the Pats (-37.5) v. the Browns, yes please. We bet Brady almost every week and hardly ever lost.If you bet on Brady every week of the season, I guarantee you will end up in the black. If you don’t want to bet on Brady every week, then please, never, ever, ever bet against Brady.
2. NEVER Bet Against Rodgers at Home — Aaron Rodgers is just about as automatic at home as Brady is, well, all of the time. RELAXXX, take Rodgers at home, and take your free money.
3. NEVER bet on any NFC East games — The NFC East is a dumpster-fire every season, and is about as unpredictable as the weather in NJ. Trust me I am an Eagles fan and would love to bet on the Eagles and against the Giants every week, but I just don’t do it, and neither should you. Yeah the Cowboys were on a tear this season, but did you ever feel completely comfortable that they would cover? No. Use this rule to easily cross-off 2–4 games per week and it will make your betting ATS that much easier.
4. NEVER BET ON THE BROWNS — This really is just common sense. I know some of you will say “how about when they won two weeks ago and covered last week?” Would you actually have felt comfortable and confident sitting there watching the Cleveland Browns play with your money? No way. The key to betting ATS is to minimize your stress. Crossing the Browns off of the list will help to do that.
5. ALWAYS bet on GOOD teams/NEVER bet on BAD teams — I cannot stress this rule enough. Why would you bet on the Chargers v. Jets (+3) when you can take the Rams v. Packers (-9.5)? Like I said before, you want to bet on teams that you have confidence will play well and win the game. Remember this phrase, “good win, great teams cover.” With this rule you can cross off all of the games with average teams playing each other, or the “trap” games with well below average teams receiving double digit points.
6. ALWAYS bet on a GREAT favorite on the ROAD over a GREAT favorite at HOME — When Vegas handicaps games, a great team on the road will always be giving up fewer points than if they were at home. Great teams cover, and couldn’t care less if they’re playing on the road. This is an easy way to take advantage of a team that should be giving up a few more points than they really are. This rule is really only applicable if you are debating between a few games. If you’re debating between a great favorite on the road and a great favorite at home, take the road favorite.
7. NEVER bet on teams that have nothing to play for — This rule really only applies towards the end of the season. No one really wants to have their money riding on the uncertainty of a team playing in week 17 who may or may not play their starters for the whole game, regardless of the fact that they are (+13). Once again, betting ATS is all about maximizing your chances and minimizing risk.

I hope some of these strategy points were helpful and can help you rake in some cash during the playoffs and next season. Happy Betting!