TO9 Top 9: Jan. 15, 2017
Welcome back to the greatest college basketball rankings on the interwebs — the TO9 Top 9! We are knee-deep in conference play and it looks like the cream has already risen to the top, as Kansas has vaulted to the top of the Big 12, Villanova has pole position in the Big East, Kentucky is demolishing every SEC team in sight, and Notre Dame remains undefeated in ACC competition.
Wait, what? College basketball fans have grown accustomed to seeing Villanova, Kentucky, and Kansas leave their respective conferences in the dust, but few could have predicted Notre Dame’s 5–0 start to conference play. Now, it should be mentioned in the same breath that the biggest reason for Notre Dame’s undefeated conference record is a fairly soft schedule. The Irish have somehow largely avoided the bluebloods and preseason favorites, excluding an impressive home win against the Louisville Cardinals. That being said, three of their five victories have come on the road, including two this past week (in three days, no less) over tournament hopefuls Miami and Virginia Tech. As someone who puts huge weight on true road wins (perhaps too much at times), this is no small feat. While I would not advise anyone to bet on Notre Dame finishing the year atop the ACC, they have certainly put the rest of the league on notice. With the ACC as loaded as it is, the Irish will get tested week in, week out, and we will know very soon if they are truly contenders or pretenders.
Meanwhile, in the Big Ten, it feels like no one wants to win the league. Indiana looks nothing like the team that beat Kansas on opening night. Some days, Purdue looks like a legitimate Final Four threat, and then on others they turn around and lose at home to perennially mediocre Minnesota. Michigan State clearly has the talent, and while it looked like they may have turned a corner of late, two road losses in the past ten days to Penn State and Ohio State have me questioning whether they’ll put it together in time for March. Wisconsin hasn’t taken any bad losses, but their most impressive wins to date (Syracuse and Indiana) look worse and worse with each passing day. And someone tell Rutgers that tanking in college basketball doesn’t get you a high draft pick.
So where does all this leave the Big Ten? The Maryland Terrapins currently sit alone atop the conference. Like Notre Dame, much of this is influenced by their schedule, as the Terps cannot boast one good win (in or out of conference). Further, their two losses on the year have been to unranked foes Nebraska and Pittsburgh. So, unlike Notre Dame, it’s hard to get too excited about Maryland’s hot conference start. However, as long as Melo Trimble still enrolls in College Park, you’ve got to at least give the team a puncher’s chance of sniffing the Big Ten title. And, with the conference as a whole looking fairly weak this season, why can’t this year be the year that Maryland wins their first Big Ten regular season championship? In fact, as a betting man, I am much more inclined to wager on Maryland finishing the season as conference champs than on Notre Dame. But I can’t say I would put more than the change in my pocket on either one.
Fans of Notre Dame and Maryland can feel good about where their teams are at the moment, but unfortunately neither was able to crack the TO9 Top 9 this week, though Notre Dame was considered at the back end. Think your team should have been in the Top 9? Think your team should have been ranked higher? Want to talk about how terrible Syracuse is this year? Reach out to me on twitter @TO_OTCS.
Without further ado, here is the TO9 Top 9 (as of Sunday, January 15, 2017):
9. Florida State (16–2)
What do we make of this Florida State team? Going into conference play, their most impressive non-conference win — by far — was a home victory over a good, but not great, Florida team. It gets a few extra points due to it being a rivalry game, but I think most pundits can be forgiven for overlooking this team in late December. Now? I don’t think anyone can ignore what FSU has done. When we last spoke, the Noles had just clipped UVA on the road. While it was a very impressive win, at the time it felt more like an instance of a talented team putting it all together for just one night. But to follow it up, FSU throttled two more ranked opponents (both at home) — Virginia Tech and Duke. After such an impressive threesome, I find it hard to fault them for losing on the road to reigning national runner-up North Carolina.
So, back to the original question — what do we make of this team? Well, I think it’s about time to view them as a legitimate Final Four contender. In general, I am admittedly slow to react to teams that were not expected to be Top 9 teams at the onset of the season. Call it being naïve or being prudent, but I tend to have a higher burden of proof for teams that come somewhat out of nowhere. My thinking is that there must have been a reason no one really saw this coming.
We’ll continue to learn more about how good this team is, as their ridiculously tough schedule continues this week, with home games against the aforementioned Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Louisville Cardinals. That means by next weekend, FSU will have played six straight games against ranked foes. If this team can go 5–1 in that stretch (or even 4–2), I doubt any team in the nation could boast a better three-week stretch.
At the end of the day, it’s hard not to like this team. After all, how can you hate on a team whose best player is named Bacon? And with a 7-footer named Christ, I dare you to bet against Him.
8. Creighton (17–1)
7. West Virginia (15–2)
6. Gonzaga (17–0)
5. Baylor (16–1)
4. Kentucky (15–2)
The Southeastern Conference is a mid-major conference. Alright, alright, maybe I shouldn’t go that far, but the way Kentucky is absolutely obliterating the rest of the conference is making me wonder whether Kentucky is just that good or the rest of the conference is that bad. To be fair, the advanced statistics point toward the former, as Kentucky is comfortably ranked number one in KenPom, and the conference has five teams in the top-50 as well as nine teams in the top-75. That alone would make Kentucky’s undefeated conference record something worth talking about. However, taking a closer look, you would see that UK’s five wins have been by a total of 117 points — that’s good for an average margin of victory of 23.4 points. For comparison’s sake, the largest margin of victory in Kansas’ five conference wins is 17 (more on that later). Save for a strangely close victory at Vanderbilt, UK’s conference games have generally been over by halftime. Some could somehow spin that as a negative, but if this keeps up, John Calipari will have a confident, rested squad for the NCAA Tournament.
But I’m still not sold on the KenPom rankings for the conference as a whole. Watching this Kentucky team play, I find it hard to believe they are head and shoulders above the rest of the nation. Frankly, I think it is highly debatable whether or not they are the best team in the nation — as their TO9 ranking will attest.
3. UCLA (18–1)
2. Kansas (16–1)
While Kentucky has been dominant in nearly every conference game this season, Kansas has been dominant in every conference season for over a decade. They are gunning for their 13th consecutive Big 12 title (shared or outright). The last time Kansas did not win the Big 12, the Curse of the Bambino was still a thing, the Big East Conference was still respected, and people wondered whether Roy Williams would ever win a national title. Bill Self’s tenure at Kansas is truly unparalleled in the sport of college basketball. While Baylor was (rightfully) getting all of the early season buzz for their undefeated start, there were whispers that this might finally be the year that Kansas would fall from their perch atop the Big 12. And where are we now? Kansas has the longest winning streak in the nation outside of Spokane, Washington. It seems like in Lawrence, Kansas, the more things change, the more they stay the same.
Of course, in no way are the Jayhawks out of the woods yet. Coach Self would be the first to tell you that the conference season is a marathon, not a sprint. As mentioned above, Kansas hasn’t really been blowing out any of their Big 12 opponents. In fact, they took advantage of an egregious no-call at the end of their home victory over Kansas State to escape without having to face an overtime period. But they just keep on winning. Although Baylor and West Virginia look primed to give Kansas perhaps their toughest challenge in their streak of twelve (and counting) Big 12 titles, it once again looks likely that in a month or two twitter robot Jon Rothstein will be able to dust off one of his favorite tweets: “Death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12.”
1. Villanova (17–1)
