TO9 Top 9: Jan. 29, 2017
What a roller coaster ride it has been in the world of college basketball! A bananas week saw multiple losses for teams previously in the TO9 Top 9, including losses for each of Villanova, Kansas, and Kentucky (ranked 1st, 2nd, and 4th, respectively) within hours of each other on Tuesday night. Now that the dust has settled, where does that leave the rankings? Everyone’s favorite mid-major, Gonzaga, is your new number one in the TO9 Top 9!
The Bulldogs are the nation’s lone remaining unbeaten team, and they have been obliterating all comers in the West Coast Conference this season. The cynic in me feels obligated to point out that the WCC fits the mold of most mid-major conferences — each of the teams in the bottom half of the league would easily be the worst team in most major conferences. There is no denying that the Zags feast on these relative minnows. However, there is some competition for the league crown as St. Mary’s is a legitimate Sweet 16 contender, while BYU could pose a problem to Gonzaga’s undefeated dream when the two squads meet in Provo, Utah this coming Thursday.
Regardless of how one feels about the WCC, you have to tip your cap to Mark Few and his players for getting to February with an unblemished record. Their December victory over Arizona looks better and better as the Wildcats tear through the Pac-12, and solid wins over Florida, Iowa State, and Tennessee help beef up the body of their tournament résumé.
The engine that runs the Bulldogs is star point guard Nigel Williams-Goss. The redshirt junior took a circuitous route to his position in the national player of the year race. When he enrolled at the University of Washington in 2013, he was a top-25 recruit with McDonald’s All-American honors looking to parlay one, maybe two, great collegiate seasons into an NBA career. However, two seasons of mediocre results (at the team level) pushed Williams-Goss into the transfer market. To the chagrin of many Washington fans, he took his talents to an in-state rival and has absolutely flourished. Interestingly enough, he is one of three different Gonzaga starters who found their way to Spokane via transfer (Johnathan Williams from Missouri and Jordan Mathews from Cal-Berkeley).
Williams-Goss does a little bit of everything for Gonzaga, averaging 14.8 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.9 assists, and 1.6 steals a game — those figures lead the team except rebounding where Zach Collins hauls in 5.7 a game. That’s right, Gonzaga’s 6’3” point guard essentially grabs just as many rebounds as their 7’0” center. None of Williams-Goss’ statistics really jump off the page when viewed in a vacuum, but he truly does it all for one of the best teams in the country. He is currently ranked 6th in the nation in win shares, largely bolstered by his work on the defensive end of the court, where he is 1st in the nation in defensive win shares.
Looking over Gonzaga’s roster and marveling at Williams-Goss’ statistics got me thinking about how I would rank the national player of the year candidates. So, in a slight twist to the TO9 Top 9, I will be presenting my list of the top choices for player of the year instead of the usual team rankings. This year’s player of the year race feels more wide-open than ever before, as you could at least make the argument for a handful of players or so to win the award. Williams-Goss is definitely on that short list, as he slots in at number four in the TO9 Top 9. I wanted to rank him even higher than fourth, but the top three are solidly entrenched and I just couldn’t justify dropping any of them for Williams-Goss.
The TO9 Top 9 (player of the year edition) is pretty diverse, as all four class years are represented, and six conferences appear on the list. For you ESPN haters out there, no ACC players made the cut. Disagree with where anyone is ranked? Want me to reaffirm that Syracuse is still terrible this year? Reach out to me on twitter @TO_OTCS.
Without further ado, here is the TO9 Top 9, national player of the year race (as of Sunday, January 29, 2017):
9. De’Aaron Fox, Kentucky FR
8. Lauri Markkanen, Arizona FR
iLoveMarkkanen. This guy is the real deal. I admittedly didn’t know much about Lauri going into the season, but recognized his name because he popped up on various mock drafts as a potential lottery pick. I finally got to see him play the other day and I can say without a doubt that all the hype is justified. He is a 7-footer with range out to the 3-point line (he makes an astounding 2.5 threes a game and shoots them at a clip over 50%). Even more than this, he just looks fluid running up and down the court. So many guys 7’0” or taller look awkward simply moving around, but Markkanen really looks like an Anthony Davis or Kristaps Porzingis.
He is averaging 17.0 points and 7.7 rebounds per game on a team that is trending upward, potentially all the way to a 1 seed. That was almost unimaginable early in the season, but Markkanen has a lot to do with it. Allonzo Trier’s return may cut into Markkanen’s stats slightly, but they play different positions so his minutes shouldn’t dip whatsoever. I’m not sold on Markkanen’s defensive abilities, which hurts him not only in the player of the year race but potentially at the next level as well (for the record, if I ran an NBA team I wouldn’t let that stop me from taking him early in the lottery). But the offensive talent is absolutely breathtaking. In fact, I think I would select Markkanen in the NBA Draft before anyone ranked ahead of him in the TO9 Top 9 (yes, even Lonzo Ball). This is a college basketball ranking, though, so he’ll have to settle for 8th in this race.
7. Ethan Happ, Wisconsin SO
6. Lonzo Ball, UCLA FR
5. Jonathan Motley, Baylor JR
4. Nigel Williams-Goss, Gonzaga JR
3. Caleb Swanigan, Purdue SO
Caleb Swanigan is a double-double machine. Even as teams have made him the focal point of their game plans, the Boilermaker big man continues to churn out big stat lines, even with a few 20–20 games in conference play. Swanigan is averaging 18.8 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game. The last two players in all of college basketball to average at least 17 points, 12 rebounds, and 2 assists per game were Blake Griffin and Tim Duncan — both were number one overall picks in the NBA Draft! Talk about impressive company. Now, there is no shot Swanigan gets picked first in the NBA Draft, but that ought to give you an idea of just how rare and impressive his season has been.
Considering Swanigan is the nation’s leading rebounder, it probably isn’t much of a surprise to hear that he is a terror inside (57.5% on 2-point field goals), but what really impresses me is his versatility — he averages 1.0 3-point field goals made per game, and shoots them at a 50.0% clip. The guy is a matchup nightmare. If I were a betting man (which I am), I still wouldn’t bet on anyone other than my top two to win player of the year, but if Swanigan can lead Purdue to the Big Ten title and a 2-seed or better in the NCAA Tournament, there is a very real possibility he takes home the Naismith Trophy.
2. Frank Mason, Kansas SR
1. Josh Hart, Villanova SR
Ever since just a few weeks into the college basketball season, it has pretty much been Josh Hart vs. Frank Mason for national player of the year. Mason was probably the favorite through the first month of the year, but after Hart exploded on Notre Dame to the tune of 37 points, he found himself the leader in the clubhouse. Lately, as Hart has had a few quiet games, it looks like Mason is gaining some momentum, and I think has surpassed Hart in the eyes of many pundits. I can’t hate on anyone who has Mason above Hart in the player of the year race, but I think Josh Hart affects the game just a little bit more on the defensive end. He averages more blocks and steals per game, while committing fewer turnovers on the offensive side as well.
It is worth noting that the advanced statistics largely side with Hart as well, as Hart is at 5.1 win shares compared to Mason’s 4.2, while Hart’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is at 31.0 versus Mason’s 24.9. Those are pretty sizable gaps. Hart is certainly asked to do more for the Wildcats than Mason for the Jayhawks, but the numbers are the numbers. Personally, I’d just love to see a Kansas-Villanova rematch after their Elite 8 classic last March. While Hart and Mason don’t play the same position, with Villanova’s constantly switching defense, we would no doubt see plenty of Hart versus Mason, one on one.
I think Mason and Hart will jockey back and forth for the top spot in the national player of the year race for the rest of the season, and it might come down to who has the most memorable moment to push that player over the top. My money’s on Josh Hart being the one who goes home with the hardware.
