TO9 Top9: Mar. 12, 2017
Merry Christmas! Oops. I mean Happy Selection Sunday!! One of the most anticipated days of every year has come and gone and the bracket has been revealed. As always, there is a lot of consternation about various teams that got hosed or got lucky with the draw. Here are a few thoughts I had as I watched the bracket get revealed:
I loved that CBS chose to reveal the bracket straight-up by region instead of revealing the 1-seeds and then going to commercial and announcing the rest of each region. It always seemed a little unnecessary to reveal just four teams and then discuss for 5 minutes and go to commercial break afterwards. On a related note, it only took 38 minutes or so to reveal the whole bracket, as opposed to last year’s travesty when they scheduled a 2-hour program which ended up being usurped by a leaked bracket on twitter. I think they learned their lesson and made efforts to avoid stringing along viewers and revealed the bracket (relatively) as quickly as they could. Smart move.
Who got hosed for a 1-seed? The trendy pick was to have Duke among the top-4 teams and give them a 1-seed. I was actually in this boat — even with all their losses, the quality of their wins was hard to ignore. Ultimately, I was pretty surprised to not only see them as a 2-seed but also in the overall 1-seed’s region. The problem with underseeding a team is that you don’t really screw over that team, but the teams who end up having to play them. Villanova fans have a serious gripe that although they are the overall 1-seed, in the Elite Eight they could potentially have to go up against the odds-on favorite in Vegas.
What the hell did the committee do with the Big Ten? Making Purdue a 4-seed made a lot of sense to me, but Wisconsin an 8-seed?? While Minnesota is a 5-seed?? I’m not so high on Wisconsin but slotting them three seed lines lower than Minnesota was truly puzzling. Some could also take issue with scorching hot Michigan only getting a 7-seed. I think the generally weak season by the whole conference resulted in some confusion from the committee as to how to seed them all. And, frankly, for most of the teams, they got it wrong.
Wichita State was criminally underseeded. The Shockers, sitting eighth overall in kenpom, were given the 10-seed in the South region. This means that the committee believes that there are at least 36 teams better than Wichita State while kenpom, a highly respected predictive ranking system believes there are only seven teams better. I get that their traditional résumé is a little thin, but when so many of the advanced statistics tell you that this is a top-20 team, it has to be reflected in seeding.
Former cinderellas litter the bracket this year. Casual fans might recognize Middle Tennessee State, Florida Gulf Coast, and Vermont based on some major upsets these programs pulled in tournaments past. While those victories don’t necessarily mean anything for their chances this year, you may see the general public picking these upsets a bit more than expected based on the name alone. And, to be honest, I can’t blame them. All three have a real chance to win their first round games.
Baffled as to what to do with your bracket? You’ve come to the right place. Here are my tried and true tips to building a winning bracket and looking smart among your friends, family and coworkers. If you’d like to give me a cut of your winnings when you inevitably crush the competition, I won’t be opposed. Disagree with any of the tenets below? Reach out to me on twitter @TO_OTCS.
Without further ado, here is the TO9 Top 9, with nine tips to help you in your bracket pools (as of Sunday, March 12, 2017):
9. Don’t pick a 16-seed to defeat a 1-seed
Don’t. Just don’t.
8. Do pick a 12-seed to defeat a 5-seed
12-seeds have split their last 20 matchups with 5-seeds (over the past five years). Since 2007, in only one tournament (2015) did 5-seeds go 4–0. In short, damn near every year sees a 12-seed move on to the second round. Like every other year, this year’s bracket has some juicy matchups on the 12/5 line. I can see every single one of the 12-seeds springing the upset, and at the moment, I’ve got both Middle Tennessee State and UNC-Wilmington moving on to the second round.
7. First Four winners fare well in the Round of 64
The First Four was introduced in 2011, and, remarkably, at least one First Four team has moved on to at least the second round every single year since. Don’t forget that in the very first year of a 68-team field, VCU made it all the way from the First Four to the Final Four. There is something to be said for a team playing on Tuesday or Wednesday and shaking off a bit of rust and cobwebs before going against a higher-seeded team later in the week. To be clear, I can’t say I’m enamored by any of Kansas State, Wake Forest, Providence, or USC, but don’t brush aside whoever comes out of the First Four — recent history has proven that these bubble teams have burst other team’s dreams more often than not.
6. Pick a double-digit seed to make the Sweet 16
A double-digit seed getting to the second weekend also seems to happen just about every year. Last year, we even saw a double-digit seed make the Final Four, with 10th-seeded Syracuse making it out of the Midwest region. While I wouldn’t necessarily condone picking a double-digit seed to make it to the final weekend, it would be wise to go out on a limb and pick at least one to get to the Sweet 16. My favorite double-digit seeds to do so? Wichita State and Rhode Island. The aforementioned Shockers are way better than their seed suggests, and they’ve got one of the best tournament coaches in recent history at the helm. Rhode Island, meanwhile, was stuck in neutral for much of the non-conference schedule, which pushed them off most pundits’ radars. However, after winning the A-10 conference tournament, they look primed for a run in the tourney, especially if they face an Oregon team in the second round who just lost their top big man, Chris Boucher, to a torn ACL.
5. Don’t get cute with your national champion
While the previous tips can help you nail a few early upsets, don’t get carried away with lower seeded teams as the tournament progresses. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, 28 of the 32 champions have been top three seeds. And seven of the past 10 champions have been 1-seeds. While, on average, only one or two 1-seeds make the Final Four each year, the ones that get there tend to finish the job. Don’t get cute with your national champion and stick with the chalk when picking your winner.
4. Defense wins championships
Usually, clichés like the above are outdated or flat-out wrong. But when it comes to the NCAA Tournament, a strong defense truly is necessary to cut down the nets. As I’ve mentioned previously in the TO9 Top 9, no team in the kenpom era (since 2001) has won the national championship with a defense ranked worse than 21st nationally. That is bad news for UNC, Kansas, Duke, Oregon, UCLA, Florida State, and Arizona — all top-3 seeds with adjusted defensive efficiencies 22nd or lower. With strong tournament runs, some of these schools could ultimately end up with defensive rankings within the top-21, so there is no need to completely disregard them, but realize that if you pick any of these teams to win it all, you are banking on their defense outperforming what we have seen them do to-date.
3. Location matters
One thing I love to check on each bracket is where games are being played. Feeling like Florida State might be vulnerable? Well, keep in mind that they are playing Florida Gulf Coast in Orlando which is actually a solid hour closer to FGCU than FSU. Thinking Villanova would be vulnerable in the regional? Don’t forget that they are playing at Madison Square Garden, which their alumni have historically filled pretty well (yes, the same could apply for Duke as well). Don’t let locations dictate who you pick in each matchup, but when you feel a game is a tossup, feel free to let it be the tiebreaker.
2. Villanova, Gonzaga, Louisville, and Kentucky
Yup, that is my Final Four. While Kentucky seems to fall asleep behind the wheel at times during games, I think their roster is just too talented for any team in the South region to overcome. I thought long and hard about picking Wichita State to trip them up in the Round of 32, but ultimately stuck with the chalk. Meanwhile, in the Midwest, I just feel like too many distractions have been hanging over the 1-seeded Kansas program that catch up to the team sooner rather than later. Louisville’s suffocating defense is a nightmare to go against in a tournament format and gets them out of their region (and sets up a juicy in-state matchup with Kentucky in Glendale). Villanova has a scary potential Elite Eight matchup against Duke, but their senior leadership is a legitimate advantage they hold over virtually every other team in the tournament and should be a factor in getting back to the Final Four. Out West, I think Mark Few finally gets his program to a Final Four, shutting up many of the haters along the way.
1. Gonzaga wins it all
Even further, I think Coach Few validates the Gonzaga program as a true national powerhouse and delivers a national championship to Spokane, Washington. The Bulldogs are long and field a roster that visually looks more like an ACC power than one in a mid-major conference. I think the late season loss to BYU was exactly what they needed to refocus on the ultimate goal. No longer having to bear the pressure of going undefeated, I think they play loose and finally shed their unfair reputation of early NCAA Tournament chokers (not unlike what Villanova was able to accomplish just a year ago).
