Five Tips for Reporters Covering Today’s Election Results and Digital Campaigns
You probably already know this, but just in case…
First: The GOP is likely outspending Democratic Campaigns online.
I’m pulling more recent data on this, but in all the hot races I’ve spot-checked, the GOP is heavily outspending Democrats in terms of online advertising. In particular, the NRCC is likely spending about 9.1% of it’s IE budget online, whereas the DCCC is spending more like 4.5%.
Unfortunately, this is the last cycle that this targeting for apps will be available. We can still do the paid ads targeting, but organic social GOTV is a thing of the past.
It amuses me that NGP/VAN called it revolutionary in 2014, but it also is kind of sad that their marquis feature is dead in the water starting in 2015. They say the API change won’t affect their customers at all, but the truth is they’re now reduced to basically a SHARE button, instead of combing through supporter’s friend lists for the people most likely to give/share/act/vote. That’s a BFD.
Third: Social Network Likes, Follows, etc., don’t predict election results.
Ok, so that’s work we did in 2010, but that WAS the last midterm. Anyhow, likes and follower counts are REALLY easy metrics for everyone to look at, but they’re really not a great indicator of how good your digital campaign is doing, let alone the campaign as a whole.
There are a lot of reasons for this, only 25% of the electorate uses twitter, followers and what-not aren’t even necessarily in your district, etc. etc.
Fourth: “Sentiment Analysis” won’t predict the vote either.
This is something that WILL be a big deal down the line. In fact, Facebook’s announced that it’s partnered with Buzzfeed and ABC News to provide data to their election units this year, and for 2016. Facebook may be approaching representative status, but I’d be leery of it until 2016. We’ll need time to refine the modeling.
Fifth: All those GOTV emails don’t actually work.
The people on our email lists are going to vote at whatever level they were anyway. We send them to our list partly for optics, partly to make sure that our supporters have a easier time finding their polling place or knowing what to bring along, etc. But in the aggregate, if they found their way onto our lists, they’re going to vote, and our encouragement is irrelevant.
To truly GOTV online, you need to use voterfile targeted ads and social outreach, which most of us are doing — it’s just less obvious.
Anyway, I’ve been really excited with all the press about digital advertising and campaigning this cycle. It’s been a lot more reality-based than in the past, and I hope that trend continues. Obviously, my colleagues and I are more than happy to provide analysis or quotes or background if you happen to be writing about politics and technology. Just drop me a line.
And, to paraphrase Eeyore… “Thanks for noticing us…”
I’d love to you hear your thoughts. You can find me tweeting about online politics, whisky, and cephalopods at @SteveOlson — and if you liked this post, I’d appreciate you clicking the “recommend” button below. Thanks!
