Nintendo Switch — Will Nintendo Bounce Back?

Here is the launch video.

Like Nintendo has done over the past few generations of consoles, it is not competing with Sony or Microsoft’s offerings of going for a more powerful console, but instead bridging the gap between console and mobile play. The multi-billion dollar question is: Is this the right play? Is Nintendo making the right approach by bridging this gap between console and mobile play?

Let’s rewind back to 2006.

Microsoft has a head start on the current generation of consoles by releasing the Xbox 360 in late 2005, an iteration from the original Xbox, with more emphasis on their online services. Sony reveals and launches the PlayStation 3, with focus on being the most powerful console available. What did Nintendo do? Unlike its previous consoles, which competed on the same playing level of its competitors, it took an approach that brought in new customers who did not consider themselves gamers. By offering motion controls, the Nintendo Wii targeted a whole different audience that Sony and Microsoft had not, and the sales numbers were through the roof. While the “hardcore gamers” were very critical of the Wii, with the rise of the “casual gamer”, they failed to realize just how small their market was, and how large of an audience wanted something that was fun, simple, and a unique experience.

Let’s take a look at a Nintendo sales chart to dig deeper.

Sales chart of Nintendo consoles and handhelds

So why were the Wii U and the 3DS such disappointments?

The DS was launched in 2005, and the 3DS launched in 2011. The Wii launched in 2006, with the Wii U following up in 2012. Here are some key points I identified for the reasons of lower sales.

1. More of the same after game-changing products. The Nintendo DS was a completely different beast than the Game Boy and Game Boy Advance that came before it. The dual screen with touch screen capabilities gave greater options to game creators than before. The DS brought in new gamers that didn’t play before. Likewise, the Wii brought in new customers by offering motion touch controls. The 3DS, on the other hand, was just an iterative improvement over the DS, and not a game-changer. This was also the same issue with the Wii-u, which was mostly iteration improvements from the Wii.
2. Microsoft and Sony took some of that market. Perhaps new gamers who tried out the Wii wanted something for the more “hardcore” and decided to switch to an Xbox or PlayStation. Microsoft and Sony did copy many aspects of the Wii with the Kinect and the Playstation Move. Although nowhere near as successful, it did saturate the market. Gamers who were fed up with Nintendo in the past for not offering more powerful consoles did not purchase the Wii-U or the 3DS.
3. The rise of Smartphones and mobile games. Easily the #1 reason. The mobile phone market changed completely between 2005 and 2012. Many of the “casual gamers” found these games even quicker, easier, and cheaper to purchase, and moved toward these options as opposed to what Nintendo had offered.

Does it make sense what Nintendo is doing now?

Yes.

Before we look more into the Nintendo Switch, I would like to note that Nintendo is now producing games for Apple devices, something that Sony and Microsoft have not done yet. It was incredible to see Shigeru Miyamoto sharing the stage with Tim Cook.

Let’s take a look back at Justin Jackson’s thoughts on the Nintendo Switch for a moment.

As with the original Wii, Nintendo is trying to identify a gap in the current gaming behavior. We’re all heads down in our phones. On consoles, we might play games with other people remotely (like in Overwatch), but we’re missing that in-person “meat-space” experience.

With the Switch, Nintendo is trying to bring in-person social gaming to a mobile device.

Hypothesis: Nintendo Switch is a social play — Justin Jackson

To expand on this, I see Nintendo making the push for bridging the gap between console play, and mobile gaming. The switch can be taken with you anywhere (although not in your pocket, it looks to be about the size of a small tablet), and you can play with another player with the side controllers.

The games offered for the device will be more powerful than what you can find on a tablet or a phone. However, is that enough to convince the market to purchase a Nintendo Switch.

Nintendo is not looking to compete with Sony and Microsoft, but looking to compete with the mobile gaming market and serve a different audience.

Yes, there is overlap against the other consoles (and an impressive list of game developers), but Nintendo has realized for years now (since the Gamecube) that going for an approach that is a direct competition to the offerings of Sony and Microsoft isn’t going to work. Those two companies have served the “sit down and play with a controller” market for years, and that’s not going to change.

So, Nintendo is taking a different approach. While I do not see it as as game changer that the Wii was, the approach of both building a relationship with Apple to produce mobile games, and producing a console that can be played at home, or taken on the go and shared with others is a bold unexplored choice for the company. If they did more of the same, or tried to compete with the power of Sony and Microsoft, they would be dead in the water. So will it succeed?

That is still up in the air. The Wii had a lot of speculation, curiosity, doubt and outright mockery when it was first unveiled, but it was a game changer for the industry. In many ways, the Nintendo Switch is facing the same reception right now. Many are excited, some are doubtful, and some are mocking it.

March 2017 is going to be an introducing month for Nintendo.

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Originally published at www.pmpaul.com on October 26, 2016.