#58 of #100Scenarios — A US-China War
Published in
Nov 19, 2020
I was thinking about how the US and China might end up in a trajectory of conflict and the various scenarios they might end up in. From this short view, it looks like how things will end up will depend on the ability for political leaders on both sides to deescalate and find off-ramps, or else conflict will escalate into major conflict.
Popular press often fails to consider things from the leadership-population dynamics, and the degree to which these factors constrain or amplify aggressive behaviour. The notions of ‘victory’ and ‘defeat’ are also vaguely thought-out.
