Thomas Friedman’s Lexus and the Olive Tree, a 20+year review — what he got right, what he got wrong, and the wishful thinking we all had…

It might seem strange to do a 20-year review of a book, but I thought the exercise might be useful in thinking about the kinds of ideas that were prevalent some time ago, and how they have stayed with us, for good or for bad. 20 years in a long horizon; it shows up the assumptions that were dominant once, and also stocktaking in thinking about what remnants of the ideas have remained prominent, and what ideas have overtaken them.

Thomas Friedman wrote The Lexus and Olive Tree before the 2001 9–11 attacks. This was a date that marked a shift in global affairs, in showing up American vulnerabilities. Reading LOT now is almost a time machine — it takes us to a time when America was labeled a “hyperpower” with no rivals anywhere.

He thought that globalisation — the financial-economic markets might cause countries to converge in governance models with better transparency and accountability; he did not see how governments could still enforce their will and have companies facilitate kleptocracy, for instance. He thought China might become more democratic — he just did not see how China would instead play global corporates and have them lobby governments and create their own information order. And…