What to read to figure out North Korea

North Korea launched what was likely to be an inter-continental ballistic missile. If it was fitted with nuclear warheads, it would be able to cause tremendous destruction in this part of the world. It will provide more information for North Korean missile engineers to design a truly world-spanning ICBM.

But does it really change the strategic situation?

To South Korea and Japan — No. North Korea’s various other missile programmes have long been a threat to the surrounding countries, and North Korea’s artillery have long been pointed at Seoul.

The only major change is that the ICBM now makes the US a likely direct target of North Korea. This development could force the US to make a firmer position on North Korea.

What are the ideas that lead to this line of thought?

1. Offensive realism — from Mearsheimer’s Tragedy of Great Power Politics;
2. Game Theory — from Thomas Schelling, but game theory has since had wide-ranging applications;
3. New nuclear dilemmas — from Paul Bracken’s The Second Nuclear Age.

Other good pieces:

What Did North Korea's Missile Test Really Change?

I read the situation differently — when the next missile test comes along, the situation could become volatile. The North Korean situation is reaching a threshold, in which something must happen next.

Vox has a couple of good pieces below. The first piece looks at the possible responses, and show that there isn’t any good option.

Trump has 3 options for dealing with North Korea. They're all bad.

This Vox piece explains the North Korean regime. Kim Jong Un is really a weak leader, and needs to continually seek the support of the regime.

North Korea isn't crazy. It's insecure, poor, and extremely dangerous.

If and when the situation changes, pray for the lives of those in Seoul.