US-China Tensions

Quick and Dirty Scenarios, first posted on Instagram

This is a scenario that might just be on the periphery, but one that might come to occupy the minds of leaders. Where is the US-China tension going? Are we heading to a New Cold War, where US and China divide up the world? How bad will the Zig-Zagging be?

A G-2 world might seem laughable right now, but sudden moves in geopolitics have always been possible. Perhaps a new crisis, or a change in leadership, or some other external factor, forces US or China to work together. I guess this is the value of scenarios — not in terms of actual possibilities, but just thinking or revisiting assumptions, and how they might not work in some important ‘edge cases’.

If you’re a business owner and doing well in China, do consider how you might be affected if you have any interface with the US/US-affiliated companies? Similarly, if you are an US/European/UK/Aus/NZ/Jpn company or have operations there and have markets and operations in China, how might you respond to more China-antagonistic policies? This is a situation where nobody wants to find themselves in, but still have to plan for.

If you don’t have access to WeChat for China, what other avenues do you have? If you are locked out of WhatsApp/Facebook/Google/etc., what other avenues do you have? Better have technology resiliency plans as well.

#china #geopolitics #newcoldwar #zigzag #g2#scenarios

Disclaimer: new to this, so bear with me while I sort these out.

I’m not elaborating on this much because there really is a lot of content out already about how the world might shake out.