The Environmental Consequences of Staying At Home
Recent reductions in fuel emissions from travel, manufacturing and commuting could lead to fewer respiratory infections in the coming months.
In the past month, more than 20 million Americans have filed for unemployment. Many others have lost their jobs but have been unable to file for benefits due to outdated and overloaded systems. Citing this drastic reduction in the national workforce, analysts at Credit Suisse estimate that our nation’s GDP will drop by an unprecedented 33.5% next quarter. For context, during the worst quarter of the 2008 financial crisis, the United States GDP dropped by just 8.4%.
Clearly, the economic consequences of stay-at-home orders and mandatory business closures have been severe. But reductions in consumer spending, travel and overall consumption during the pandemic have enabled another part of our world to thrive: the environment.
Picture-perfect air
In early March, NASA posted satellite images of nitrogen dioxide concentrations over China during January and February. The difference between the two images is striking.
The Chinese government did take a rather militant approach to stay-at-home orders, but less aggressive restrictions have also caused air quality to improve. Since early March, when stay-at-home orders became widespread in the US and Europe, major cities in these regions saw rapid improvements in air quality:
And while coronavirus cases worldwide continue to increase, evidence suggests that this recent reduction in emissions may save thousands of lives in the coming months.
The epidemiology of air pollution
On March 8, Professor Marshall Burke, an earth systems scientist at Stanford University, published an article on how recent reductions in air pollutants in China could affect premature mortality rates.
In his analysis, Burke used trends from a 2016 study that estimated the age specific change in mortality rate per unit change in PM2.5 — a class of airborne particles with diameters of 2.5 nanometers or less. Internal combustion engines, construction and industrial manufacturing contribute significantly to the hazardous PM2.5 in our atmosphere
Particles in this size range can penetrate deeply into the lungs, impairing respiratory function. High levels of circulating PM2.5 are correlated with increases in cardiac and respiratory emergencies, asthma, chronic bronchitis, and other chronic conditions. Children and the elderly are particularly sensitive to PM2.5 levels.
Based on two months of PM2.5 reductions, Burke estimated that 4,000 children age 5 or younger, and 73,000 adults age 70 or older, had been saved in China alone.
Some caveats
It’s important to note that Burke’s calculations of the number of lives saved are statistical inferences; further studies are needed to determine the true number of lives saved and the accuracy of these projections.
Additionally, Burke made it very clear that his prediction was for a reduction in deaths attributed specifically to air pollution:
“The effects I calculate just represent health benefits from the air pollution changes wrought by the economic disruption, and do not account for the many other short- or long-term negative consequences of this disruption on health or other outcomes; these harms likely vastly exceed any health benefits from reduced air pollution.”
Nevertheless, the message from Burke’s article is clear: Our actions as individuals can either improve or threaten our environment and the lives of others. While bureaucracy can be a useful tool to limit industrial emissions, ultimately, the habits and decisions of individuals will be always be more significant.
What you can do
First, when the stay-at-home orders are lifted in your area, avoid falling back into old indulgent habits just for the sake of feeling “free”.
Limit your trips to the grocery store to once or twice a week. And when you buy groceries, eat them — currently, about 30% of all food sold in America goes to waste. Plan your meals at the beginning of each week and buy only what you need. If you do find yourself with too much produce, chop and freeze it before it goes bad.
Eat whole, plant-based foods, and avoid animal products and highly processed foods, which require far more water to produce and contribute significantly more CO2 to the atmosphere.
If you travel often, be conscious of the hidden costs of your adventures. Instead of renting a car at your destination, use public transportation. Better yet, walk.
Inevitably, when the pandemic is over and people return to work, air quality will suffer. Most of us will go back to commutes that are too long and vacations that are too short. But this doesn’t mean we have to continue the environmentally destructive trends of the past. Let’s remember the secondary effects of this pandemic as an undeniable example of control we have over our environment and the lives of others.
By adopting sustainable habits in our travels and our daily lives, we’ll ensure that our children get a chance to enjoy the incomparable natural beauty this wild planet has to offer.
