What Happens Depending on Tennessee’s 2017 Win Total?

2017 is a pivotal year for Butch Jones. Winning big would be the best case scenario but if he can’t at least match his 8–4 regular season watermark, things could get dicey very quickly. There’s no point in fully rehashing why that is the case, but in short, what went from an almost assured SEC East title and Sugar Bowl appearance in 2016, turned into a serious disappointment.
But, that’s water under the bridge at this point, so what does Jones have to do now to quash any talk of his job status changing?
Win, of course.
But more specifically, how many games does Tennessee need to win in 2017 for Jones to be safe? What will happen if he wins six games? How about seven games? Or eight?
I took on these different scenarios below and tried to predict what the consequences will be in each situation.
What are Tennessee’s expectations for 2017?
Las Vegas has set the Vols’ over/under win total at 7.5. ESPN’s Football Power Index has their win projection at 8 wins. Therefore, 7–8 wins is the overall expectation for this team outside of Knoxville.
What if Tennessee wins 6 games or less?
Butch Jones has to go. It’s year five. Come on.
What if Tennessee wins 7 games?
Jones probably still gets let go but it’s not a sure thing.
You can’t go backwards at this point, especially with an easier schedule than the previous year. Yes, Tennessee lost a lot of production on both sides of the ball but it doesn’t have another grueling four week stretch like it did in 2016 (hallelujah!) and losing five games would mean that the Vols lost all of the matchups they are currently expected to lose to (Florida and Alabama), the toss-up games (LSU and Georgia) AND a game they should have won (Georgia Tech, Missouri, Kentucky, Vanderbilt).
Although, while seven wins could mean finding a new coach, it still won’t be a simple decision for new athletic director John Currie. He has no ties to the hiring of Jones and no particular reason to give him a gratuitous amount of slack, but there’s still plenty of elements to consider when deciding whether or not to let Jones go.
For example: What coaches are available for hire? Is the payoff worth the time, energy, and money needed to find a new coach? Things certainly aren’t cut and dry at seven wins but Jones might want to do more if he wants true job security.
What if Tennessee wins 8 games?
This is where things get messy.
8–4 isn’t a bad record by any means, but it likely won’t ever win you an SEC East title. And an SEC East title is the primary thing that fans and administration alike are looking for out of Jones. Sure, things are vastly improved and stable when compared to Jones’ ghastly predecessor but at what point should UT put its foot down and demand more from its football program?
Many fans weren’t happy with an 8–4 season in 2016, so, does it not stand to reason that unhappiness would grow with with another middling year? The athletic director has the final say in the hiring and firing or coaches, but Currie seems to be making a serious effort to listen to and consider the feelings of the Vol faithful.
But beyond everything else, at 8–4, the “4” is what really matters. Who did the team lose to? Is it Florida, Alabama, LSU and Georgia? If so, Tennessee beats nobody who could currently be considered good. Is it three losses to the aforementioned four teams and then a loss to a team like Kentucky, Mizzou, or South Carolina? That works in Jones’ favor, especially if he beats Florida in The Swamp or Alabama in Neyland. Having a marquee win like that would forgive losing to someone they have no business losing to but it would still muddy the waters on deciding on Jones’ job status.
The only real way for Butch to be 100 percent safe at eight wins is for Tennessee to win the East. Looking at Florida and Georgia’s schedules, that seems hard to imagine.
What if Tennessee wins 9 games or more?
I know what I said before, but Tennessee does not have to win the SEC East to ensure Jones returns in 2018, but (and it’s a big ‘but’) they do have to win at least nine games. Nine is the magic number in 2017. At nine wins, Jones will have exceeded expectations and improved over any of his previous seasons. Barring some catastrophic off-the-field incident, you can’t get rid of a coach who does better than he ever has before. Not to mention, nine wins could come with an East title and/or a Sugar Bowl bid.
Simply put, there must be signs of improvement and growth ON THE FIELD. Yes, Tennessee is recruiting well for 2018, but they’ve had great classes since 2014. According to 247 sports, Tennessee’s current roster consists of the 7th ranked recruiting class in 2014, 4th in 2015, 14th in 2016 and 17th in 2017. Expecting a top 20 finish and an SEC East title is not unreasonable with that kind of talent coming in the door.
And on that note, it can’t be denied that Jones has done this to himself. He recruited well and came extremely close to playing in the SEC Championship game the past two years. Don’t be surprised when you raise the bar that you’ll be expected to jump over it.
Conclusion
Step one to keep your job as a new college football coach is to prove that you are better than the last guy, Jones has done that. Step two is either keep the program at what is acceptable historically or show signs of getting there, Jones has not done that quite yet. Tennessee has a long and proud history of championship teams and its fans expect a lot. It’s a heavy burden to bear but if you can’t handle it, leave it to someone who can. It’s as simple as that.
Thankfully, talent and a favorable schedule is there in 2017 for Tennessee and Butch Jones to satisfy step two. Now, they just have to go out on the gridiron and get the job done.
