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Why Experts Are So Bad at Making Predictions
It’s fundamentally impossible for human beings to make predictions in regards to complex systems
Growing up in Florida, I’ve watched hurricane after hurricane do something markedly different from what is forecasted. Just recently, I was on the phone trying to convince a friend to evacuate from what was said to be “the most powerful storm our planet is capable of producing” just to have it hit almost exactly where she lived with miniscule consequence.
I’ve seen lifelong political pundits grossly underestimate the winning candidates viability each and every political cycle. It’s a regular occurence to watch economists embarrass themselves on nationally broadcast television shows by making black-and-white predictions about what the economy or financial markets will do in the coming months. The prevailing dietary advice offered to us by nutritions seems to change more than our fashion trends do.
The apocalypticism and catastrophizing is probably the worst of all. As best I can tell, there was never a time when the world was not about to meet an imminent end, and yet humanity has not been forced to the brink of extinction, or anywhere close to it, in the entirety of civilization’s history.
