If I had a crystal ball… My predictions about Monday
Republicans:
Ted Cruz is going to do well, he has a polished organizational structure which is focused on getting people out to caucus. I would expect Cruz to either finish first or second to Trump in Iowa.
Donald Trump might win… but he might not be the famed front-runner everyone thinks he is. He won’t be exceeding anyone’s expectations. People have to show up to caucus for him. If they do not, and Trump loses Iowa, he would lose credibility in the race. Especially because of the “All I Do is Win” attitude.
Marco Rubio is a dark horse candidate. He is getting hit hard with attack ads while simultaneously remaining an establishment favorite in the race. Sen. Rubio is the one that could beat expectations in this race. And that means media, which means momentum, which translates into winning (eventually).
Jeb Bush/Chris Christie/John Kasich/Carly Fiorina — These four are important to watch because one needs to come out on top. They are all former governors (with the exception of Carly as CEO) with executive experience. If one clearly out-dos another, there could be numerous dropouts before March 1st.
Ben Carson/Rick Santorum/Mike Huckabee — Carson will rise to the top of this group, Huckabee and Santorum will struggle to stay afloat.
Rand Paul has the libertarian wing of the party, and isn’t in any of the lanes that the other Republican candidates are vying for (Establishment, Populist, Evangelical). He will make a splash in Iowa, but it won’t matter because he will not win the nomination.
Democrats:
Hillary Clinton will not fare well in Iowa. She has the most to lose, and I don’t think she has the youth vote or turn out that Bernie is mobilizing. People aren’t excited about Hillary the way they are energized about Bernie. Sec. Clinton will not leave Iowa with the most delegates. (This is not to say that she won’t tie with Sen. Sanders)
Bernie Sanders could win or tie with Sec. Clinton in Iowa, but that does not mean he will win the presidency. He has spent his time focused in Iowa and New Hampshire, and has celebrities campaigning in the state for him. His campaign, focusing on minorities and the youth vote, will gain from a solid turn out.
O’Malley will exceed expectations more than either of the candidates. He has only been polling at 4 and 5%, but I think he will gain viability and end up with about 20% of the delegates. If Clinton gets indicted, I think O’Malley could have a case for challenging Bernie in the long term.
