Alzheimer’s in the U.S.: Are Florida & California Really Seeing Such a Rise by 2025?

Dianne Dixon
Out of Curiosity
Published in
6 min readOct 4, 2019
Photo by Steven HWG on Unsplash

I was looking over some data for a project when something caught my eye:

Statista.com graph— Most Influential Diseases: 2019–2025 Alzheimer’s projection graph
Statista- Most Influential Diseases: 2019–2025 Alzheimer’s projection graph

You can’t help by notice how California and Florida estimates are running away from the other states. Of course, my first question was, why them? what do they have in common?

Sure, Florida is a retiree haven, just check out The Golden Girls, while California is…California. Other than being coastal states that were in the top five list of the most populous states in the union, why would each experience a surge of 160,000+ new Alzheimer cases by 2025?

That was when I dug a little deeper and found out just how complex the story was.

Alzheimer’s Start

The average age of disease manifestation is around 50. Though it can start as young as 30, and can be misdiagnosed, because it is an extremely young age. There are risk factors individuals can’t control, such as genetics, age, family history, and there are those that are considered modifiable. Of the modifiable behaviors, there are at least three categories:

Heavy Smoking

Of course, smoking gets a well-deserved bad rap for a variety of reasons, including all the problems that come with it being absolute hell on your lungs. The link between smoking and Alzheimer’s lies in the body’s inflammatory response to the chemicals flooding the body, leading to neurodegeneration over time. It’s a habit that has a variety of distinctions that researchers have been studying for years. According to the CDC, in 2017, 26 percent of adult smokers were in West Virginia, Kentucky, and Louisiana, while Utah and California are on the low end.

CDC report on states where smoking is heavy: West Virginia, Kentucky and Louisiana are the top 3
Top 3 are: WV, KY, then LA

Binge Drinking

When talking about alcohol, it’s important to make the distinction between regular drinking and binge drinking. A glass of wine or liquor here or there isn’t in question here. Consuming four to five drinks in two hours four times a month or more in considered excessive alcohol use.

2015 CDC Map of Binge Drinking intensity by state — significant dark red Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Missouri, Iowa
Binge-drinking intensity — US Map 2015

The link between alcohol and Alzheimer’s is with amyloid beta. These are protein fragments that the brain gets rid of naturally. However, chronic excessive drinking reduces the brain’s ability to do so, causing plaque build-up that can lead Alzheimer’s.

Looking at this map, you’ll see that binge drinking is most prevalent in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Missouri, Iowa, that south/midwest area again. What further complicates the issue is that binge drinking between 18- and 34-year-olds is rising, according to a 2015 study. This gives the build-up plenty of time to accumulate and cause problems later in life.

Diabetes

Let me start by saying that a number of noncommunicable diseases do play significant roles in Alzheimer’s risk, but diabetes is a particularly pervasive condition that’s more like a syndrome. Type 2 diabetes is when your body becomes ineffective at using the insulin it has, or it doesn’t make enough. Currently, between 90 and 95 percent of diabetics in the U.S. are type 2, and by 2045, the global total is set to increase by close to 45 percent.

Global diabetics total projected to jump from 425 million in 2017 to 629 million in 2045
Projection from 2017 to 2045 of diabetics

Consider that this number doesn’t include undiagnosed cases, which may drive that total higher. Also, consider that diabetes is on the rise among children and young adults, meaning the damage will start earlier, just like with the introduction of alcohol.

2016 Obesity and Diagnosed Diabetes Map — US County breakdown — Midwest and South are heaviest
2016 Obesity and Diagnosed Diabetes Map — US County breakdown

When we look at the map. it’s plain that the dark green, which indicates high incidence of obesity and diagnosed diabetes is concentrated in the south and midwest: Louisiana, Oklahoma, Georgia, Missouri, Florida panhandle area, to name a few.

The link between alcohol and Alzheimer’s is still being established, but when you understand how the excess blood sugar clogs the nephrons of the kidneys, reducing it’s filtration abilities, it’s not hard to apply the concept to the brain. There could be vessel damage that impairs brain functionality enough as to become a known predecessor of the disease.

Did Somebody say Iced Tea?!

When you take a look at the graphs, iIt seems that Louisiana should be a leading state when it comes to a heightened risk of Alzheimer’s, right?

So, why isn’t it in the top 10 of that graph?

Because the more likely risk factor is something that more basic than these disorders.

I had this theory. Florida and California are populous states, so it makes sense that their total increases would be so large, but what about percentages? They are better at denoting a rate of change. I took the data and looked at it as a percentage increase rather than a flat total population.

I redid the graphs as percentages so I could see which states were increasing the fastest. Arizona topped the list!
My graph taking a different look at the same numbers

Starting with North Carolina, those 23 states were seeing faster than average increase in Alzheimer’s cases, and there’s Louisiana sitting at number 22 with 24 percent. Better!

At the top of the list is Arizona, at 43 percent!

In all three maps, Arizona was probably borderline at best, no indication that it was skidding down this path to the tune of almost double the average. Alaska was not a surprise, when looking at the other graphs.

Florida sitting at number nine, which somewhat validated the initial graph. That’s when another question popped into my head: What do Type 2 diabetes/obesity, smoking, and alcohol have in common?

STRESS!

From that angle, I did some digging. Turns out that quite a few of the states listed in that top 10 are considered some of the most stressful, according to a Anxiety.org. Arizona is number 10 on the list, while Florida is number one (as a former Floridian, this doesn’t surprise me.)

Stress makes sense. When some are stressed, they tend to eat high fat and sugary foods, smoke a few sticks, and/or get a bit wasted as a means of comfort. Once in a while probably won’t hurt, but when it’s a regular habit, that’s the problem.

Overeating, smoking, and alcohol can all be considered stress responses, and the hormone cortisol wreaks havoc throughout those processes. Cortisol causes the body to hang on to fat, can increase levels of dangerous abdominal fat, and has ready access to the brain, making it a good candidate as a common thread for neurodegenerative diseases.

Prolonged consumption of alcohol increases cortisol levels, as does nicotine, despite the tired tale about smoking being a weight loss aid. When you’re consistently not getting enough sleep, when you’re going through tough times, dealing with traumatic situation, unresolved issues…the continuous flow of cortisol in the body may be the reason you’re drinking, eating, or smoking too much.

A study in Frontiers in Aging and Neuroscience shows that high cortisol levels promote oxidative stress and are toxic to the hippocampus, the area in the brain responsible for new memory formation, emotions, and learning. Another study published in Advance in Nutrition is tying cortisol regulation, sleep, and diet as a way of mitigating Alzheimer’s risk.

Again, there are plenty of other factors to consider, but when it comes stress and how it can negatively affect your body including your brain, make no mistake that this hormone is far more culpable than many realize.

Some Research Links:

Centers for Disease Control: https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/adult_data/cig_smoking/index.htm

https://www.cdc.gov/statesystem/cigaretteuseadult.html

https://www.cdc.gov/alcohol/fact-sheets/binge-drinking.htm

https://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/statistics/slides/maps_diabetesobesity_county-508.pdf

Alcohol Research & Health: https://pubs.niaaa.nih.gov/publications/arh25-4/299-306.htm

World Health Organization: https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/128041/WHO_NMH_PND_CIC_TKS_14.1_eng.pdf

Anxiety.org: https://www.anxiety.org/top-10-most-stressed-out-states

Alzheimer’s Association: https://www.alz.org/alzheimers-dementia/what-is-dementia/related_conditions/traumatic-brain-injury

The State of Obesity: https://www.stateofobesity.org/diabetes/

Obesity Society: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/oby.21774

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Dianne Dixon
Out of Curiosity

✍️ Freelance writer Health|Wellness|Digital Marketing|Tech. Secular/Borderline Atheist. Lifelong learner. Curious Leo. Questions everything.