God Save the Union! But Which One?
A look into the current state of Brexit, Britain, and Belfast.
Earlier this week, a proposed initial Brexit deal that had the backing of both the EU and the UK was torpedoed by the DUP, a UK regional political party that only exists in Northern Ireland. The proposed deal contained a phrase called “Regulatory Alignment”, a bit of European jargon that possibly meant the continuation of regulatory laws in Northern Ireland to match the EU’s (and Ireland’s) laws for the immediate future. Since the UK’s constituency of Northern Ireland shares a land border with the Republic of Ireland, this was seen as a compromising way to avoid a disruptive “hard border” dividing communities across the island. (EDIT: An deal avoiding such a border by keeping the entire UK “aligned with” the current EU laws finally got the requisite approval.)
The DUP, however, opposed this plan once it was made public, leading to an embarrassing backtrack from British PM Theresa May, who now has to go back to the drawing board to try to appease the DUP before the first stage of Brexit can be negotiated. So why does the DUP have the power to veto the Brexit deal? As many news organizations has shown, after Theresa May’s snap election in June backfired, her ruling Tory party was forced to form a coalition government with the much-smaller DUP to win a majority of seats in Parliament:
This gives the DUP a considerable amount of power as “kingmakers”, the swing vote that the Tories have to appease if they want to get anything done at all.
So that explains why the DUP have such a powerful hand in the Brexit negotiations, despite just representing a paltry 1.5% of the British Parliament. But why are the DUP so opposed to the idea of “regulatory alignment” with the Republic of Ireland, especially when free trade ? The answer may well lie in this chart:
The politics on the island of Ireland have long been colored by two major political objectives: The objective of being part of the UK, or the objective of being an independent nation. Without going into the intricacies and full bloody history of English-Irish relations, here’s the major plot points:
- 1300s: Henry II, King of England, invades Ireland and declares himself King of Ireland.
- 1600s: Irish Catholics are disenfranchised through various acts of the British parliament and lose political representation.
- 1800: In response to a Catholic rebellion, the UK abolishes the Irish Parliament and imposes direct rule.
- 1919: Irish Republicans declare independence from the United Kingdom and begin the 3 year long Irish War of Independence.
- 1922: The Irish Free State is granted independence. The Protestant-majority areas of northeastern Ireland vote to leave the Irish Free State and rejoin the United Kingdom as “Northern Ireland”.
- 1960s: Northern Ireland Catholics begin Civil Rights marches to push for an end to anti-Catholic discrimination in Northern Ireland. When they are met with force and supported by paramilitary nationalists, an armed conflict begins in Northern Ireland, nicknamed “The Troubles”
- 1972: The height of “The Troubles” as British soldiers shoot 28 unarmed civil rights protesters and kill 14. In retaliation, Irish paramilitaries bomb Belfast and kill 9. By the end of 1972, 479 people would be killed in Northern Ireland.
- 1999: The Good Friday Agreement represents an end to “The Troubles” and the start of the Northern Ireland peace process.
- 2005: The border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is dismantled, allowing free passage between communities.
Since the deadly events of 1972, pro-unification parties in Northern Ireland have been steadily trending upwards, as visible on the graph:
Today, for the first time ever, the Northern Ireland Assembly is split down the middle between pro-UK Unionists and pro-Ireland Republicans. The Assembly currently looks like this:
This recent convergence undoubtedly unnerves the DUP and other pro-UK political parties in Northern Ireland. As part of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, if majorities in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland ever vote for reunification, the UK government will acquiesce.
Suddenly the ground beneath the British Empire doesn’t look so solid, hmm? But as with American politics, reducing support for a political party to a single issue is never the full picture. On that graph, you can also see that both sides have become more divergent in their other views as well:
Here’s what some other hot political topics look like in the Northern Ireland Assembly right now:
For several of these issues, the Unionist parties may be losing votes from younger voters who want to preserve the United Kingdom, but hold more liberal political views. Perhaps if the DUP conceded figurative land on some of those topics, they could prevent the UK from conceding literal land on the island of Ireland.
Otherwise, we may see a Dis-United Kingdom sooner than expected.
Sources:
- UK Parliament House of Commons (http://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/government-and-opposition1/)
- Northern Ireland Assembly (http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/your-mlas/)
- Brexit Negotiations http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-42240339
- Ipsos Poll of Same-Sex Marriage https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/attitudes-towards-same-sex-marriage-northern-ireland
- Text of the 2006 St. Andrew’s Agreement https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/136651/st_andrews_agreement-2.pdf
