Super Bowl LIII Preview: Pick, Predictions and Players to Watch
This is my least favorite post of the year. For the past four months, I have anticipated every Sunday and all of the excitement that comes along with it, running through scenarios, predicting the matchups, and watching the magic unfold. From no-look passes from Patrick Mahomes (yes, I’ve finally come to accept his undeniable talent) to the reincarnation of the Monsters of the Midway, the 2018–2019 season in the National Football League brought a lot of surprises to viewers nationwide. But the time has finally come. It’s Jared Goff and the high-powered Rams against good ole’ Tom Brady and the Patriots. For all the die-hard football fans out there like me, let’s hold our mourning: we’ve got one more day of football, and it’s sure to be a good one.
Rams vs. Patriots (Sunday, 2/3 at 6:30 EST)
Why the Rams will win:
Jared Goff controls this game. Throughout the season, the third year quarterback has, for the most part, been phenomenal. Does that mean that he can handle the biggest stage in football against arguably the greatest quarterback in football? Not quite. To his credit, though, the young star has outshined expectations and solidified his role on the team. But his four interceptions in a 15–6 loss to the Bears on Dec. 9 calls his consistency into question. If he stays composed and makes the right decisions, the Rams have a good shot at succeeding on offense.
The Rams are going to have to establish the run early with Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson. Gurley has had an oddly quiet postseason (covering up an injury?), allowing Anderson to rumble on through and take the majority of touches. Expect Gurley to regain the majority of carries on Sunday — but don’t count out Anderson just yet. The “Meatball” has proved that he still has juice in the tank, and he’s hungry for his second Super Bowl victory. One of the keys with the rushing attack will be balance — the gold and blue have to stay balanced early to keep the Patriots on their toes — so if that means splitting carries early on, the Rams will do so.
The receiving corps have been a very interesting group all year long. Without Cooper Kupp, the Rams were sent into a brief slump, losing two straight to Chicago and Philadelphia. In his absence, young weapons Josh Reynolds and Gerald Everett have stepped up, but they aren’t quite able to stretch the field like Kupp does. Brandin Cooks, the Rams go-to guy, will be covered by Stephon Gilmore all afternoon. So, in order for the Rams to get a win against a talented secondary, Robert Woods is going to need to be a presence from sideline to sideline.
Defensive Coordinator Wade Phillips is doing an incredible job with his young talent on defense. Aaron Donald has been the story of the year, recording over 20 sacks as a defensive tackle, securing the Defensive Player of the Year Award. But even my dog could tell you that Donald will be double-teamed all four quarters, so the Rams are going to have to find other ways to generate pressure. The good news is that they have the players to do so. Michael Brockers and Ndamukong Suh will have to penetrate a Patriots offensive line that has given up no sacks in both of their postseason games this year. In the secondary, cornerback Aqib Talib, a former Patriot, will have to teach his teammates how to defend Patriots’ Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels’ offense.
Most importantly, this game is going to come down to head coach Sean McVay. The young play-caller has blossomed into a top-tier NFL coach in just three years, looking for his first Super Bowl victory on Sunday. Known for his aggressive play-calling, McVay is going to have to be more than aggressive — while making sure not to turn the ball over to Brady and Co. It’s a lot to ask for, but if anyone can handle it, it’s McVay.
Why the Rams will lose:
I apologize in advance for using such a blunt reason for why the Rams will lose, but here goes: It’s the Patriots. It’s what they do. Just ask Patrick Mahomes. Brady sent him to play golf — literally.
If the Patriots can shut down Goff early, the young quarterback may collapse under pressure, allowing the Patriots front-seven to load the box and focus in on Gurley and Anderson. Likewise, if Gurley and Anderson can’t produce early, Goff will have a lot on his plate — and I’m not so sure he’ll be able to handle it.
The Rams’ defense, despite all of their talent, isn’t very good at stopping the run. Teams are averaging nearly five yards per carry against them. If the Rams can’t limit Sony Michel’s production, it’s going to be a long night for the Gold and Blue.
And finally, the Rams are going against Bill Belichick. The idea of going against Belichick is almost worse than actually playing against him. He knows exactly what McVay is thinking. He knows exactly what McVay is about to think. And finally, and scariest of all, he knows exactly what McVay is not thinking. If anyone is still confused, the man is a robot. Period.
McVay may try to be too aggressive to catch Belichick off guard, which may lead to costly turnovers and the game.
X-Factor: Jared Goff, QB
Which Jared Goff are we going to see Sunday? Will we see the 5-touchdown, 465-yard QB we saw against the Vikings on Sept. 27? Or will we see the 0-touchdown, 180-yard Goff we saw in Chicago? We can keep predicting all we want, but only time will tell.
Why the Patriots will win:
Well, well, well. Look who’s back again.
There were many fans out there who were saying this was the year the Patriots would be dethroned. There will be many who say the same next year. I don’t see it. This is a dynasty, and they’re not going anywhere.
“Zero.” — Tom Brady on the percent chance he retires if he wins Super Bowl LIII.
Offensively, the Patriots have been steady all season long, peaking right when they need to. With receiver Julian Edelman healthy, this team is firing on all cylinders from the get-go. Tight End Rob Gronkowski is still rumbling down the field with a scary amount of inertia. Sony Michel is finding his role in the wake of a solid rookie season. And of course, Tom Brady is still firing bullets, making plays, and winning games. I’m not concerned about the Patriots’ offense.
Defensively, the Patriots have played well this year under DC Brian Flores. But is it enough to stop the high-flying offense of Los Angeles? Led by star cornerback Stephon Gilmore, the Patriots secondary is one of the stronger of its type in the league. The McCourtney twins and Patrick Chung add even more experience to the talented group. The question is not whether the Patriots can outsmart the Rams. It’s whether they can match their athleticism. If Trey Flowers and Dont’a Hightower can slow down the game and put pressure on Goff, the Patriots will force turnovers and give more time to Brady. And for Brady, the more time, the merrier.
Why the Patriots will lose:
Tom Brady is almost unstoppable at all times; except when he is under too much pressure. Brady is not the most mobile of quarterbacks, and at 41 years old, the veteran is going to have to rely on his offensive line to keep the Rams D-Line out. If Aaron Donald can open up holes for Ndamukong Suh and Donte Fowler Jr., this could be a tough game for Brady.
On the flip side, if the Patriots don’t generate enough pressure on Goff, the young QB has the ability to pick them apart in the pocket. Flowers has been a great force on the edge, but other than him, there aren’t many stand out rushers for New England. If Belichick isn’t able to get through the Rams offensive line, the Patriots could fall — to both Goff and Gurley’s expense.
Finally, just like Belichick poses a threat to the Rams, McVay does for the Patriots. The young coach will undoubtably reach into his bag of tricks for this one, and we could be witnessing Foles Magic Part 2.
Finally, just like Belichick poses a threat to the Rams, McVay does for the Patriots. The young coach will undoubtably reach into his bag of tricks for this one, and we could be witnessing Foles Magic Part 2.
X-Factor: Sony Michel, RB
Sony Michel has had a successful rookie season, rushing for 934 yards and 6 touchdowns at just 23 years old. But his return to Georgia is not the same as it was before. Instead of facing 18-year olds, Michel will be up against 284-lb. Aaron Donald and 304-lb. Ndamukong Suh. It won’t be an easy challenge, that’s for sure — but if Michel can get it going early on Sunday, he can open up a lot of options for Brady and McDaniels. And more options mean more success for New England.
Prediction
Strength vs. Wisdom. Old School vs. New School. Good vs. Evil.
Whatever you want to call it, Super Bowl LIII is sure to be a fun one. If I’ve learned anything about picking these types of games, it’s that I am almost always wrong — so take this with a grain of salt:
The Patriots will be Super Bowl Champions in 2019. The combination of the talent and wisdom will overpower the young energy from the Rams. Brady wins MVP and all of us hopeful football fans are sent back to the drawing board, living in this endless broken record of Belichick’s album.
But then again, only time will tell. Can the Rams shock the world?
Prediction: Patriots 34, Rams 30
