Is Google (GOOG) a good AI stock to buy in 2024
Google stock could be dead money for a decade. Don’t invest in it.
I’m more confident than ever “peak Google” is in the rear-view mirror.
The company reported another disappointing earnings results. Google (GOOG) stock plunged 7% the following day.
Now, I’m not saying the company will go bust tomorrow. Google has deep pockets and is spending a ton of money on artificial intelligence (AI).
But investing in GOOG stock could be dead money for years.
If you’ve been following RiskHedge for a while, you’ll recognize this table. It charts the world’s largest companies by decade since the beginning of 1980:
See how the “Top 10” list completely changes every decade? Dominant companies always falter.
Google is still #3 in 2024. But it’s falling behind in the AI era and will be absent from these rankings by 2030.
What about Google’s AI ambitions?
A recent study from AI platform Vectara measured how often the leading AI systems “hallucinate” (make up answers).
Google’s AI hallucinated 27% of the time. It answered one in four questions “wrong.” ChatGPT’s hallucination rate was just 3%.
Big embarrassment for Google.
Google’s new Gemini AI doesn’t look to promising either.
Its demos are jaw-dropping.
It looks to be much more than an AI chatbot.
It can do things like infer that a “dot-to-dot” picture is a crab before it’s even drawn… and create games (like guess the country) based on images you show it, as you can see here:
Google’s (GOOG) stock jumped 5% on the launch news.
The problem is, the demo is essentially fake.
It wasn’t carried out in real time — by talking to the AI — or showing it images, as the video suggested. It was basically a stitched-together highlight real.
Gemini should come with a “DOES NOT WORK AS ADVERTISED” label.
Google also claims Gemini matches the latest ChatGPT on a variety of tests. Great job, guys. You launched an AI model that’s similar to the one OpenAI built nearly a year ago.
Another “L” for Google.
The final nail in Google’s coffin will be AI agents
The more my team and I research and tinker with AI agents, the more I realize they’re going to change everything.
Agents are like personal interns that complete specialized tasks for you.
These little AIs are going to end websites like Google Search.
TODAY: Google serves you up 10 blue links. You must scroll through to find what you want.
TOMORROW: You simply tell your agent what you want, and it does the job.
You’ll soon be able to tell your AI assistant to order t-shirts online. It’ll know your size, what colors you like, what colors you already have, and that you only want to spend $50. On command, it’ll place the order for you.
Another example: food.
I spend WAY too much time picking restaurants. I’ve spent countless hours sifting through Google.com to find hidden gems. Things have to be perfect, right?
In the future, I’ll ask my AI agent (who will already know what cuisine we like and what times work best)…
“I’m visiting Barcelona next week. Book a table for two at the best one Michelin-star restaurant with a great wine list. I want to spend under $500.”
…and it’ll choose the best reservation, with almost no effort.
Hours of my life back. Magic.
Once agents start really working, we’ll never have to go searching for something again.
Sticking to my guns on this one: Google has grown too fat and lazy to innovate.
Today, Google enjoys a monopoly over search and rakes in monopoly-like profits. Even if it figures out how to be competitive in AI, it won’t enjoy such a privileged position.
It squandered the huge advantages it had in the AI race and is getting its lunch eaten by OpenAI.
Google (GOOG) stock is not a good buy in 2024… or beyond.
