Future Cadets: An Introduction
Futurology systematically explore predictions and possibilities about the future and how they can emerge from the present, whether that of human society in particular or of life on & off Earth in general. In essence it is about utilizing our ability to use our imagination to plan/predict and to communicate with another how we can further collaborate. So we can bring forth our shared ‘vision’ of the best multiple future possibilities that derive from, diving into or taking on esoteric ideas, concepts and thoughts experiments of our past predecessors and shine light on them.
In this article i would like to share the concepts & references i will be using for a book i’m working on, which the working title is “Future Cadets : A Guide to Navigating the Future”.
*TLDR 😅 — Please read short version here
The future is an elusive and ever-changing entity that we all must navigate, but with the rapid advancements in technology, the complexity of our global systems, and the challenges posed by climate change and other global challenges, we now find ourselves in an “Age of Bewilderment.” In this age of bewildering change and rapid technological advancement, it is more important than ever to cultivate a mindset of futures thinking. This means embracing a way of thinking that anticipates change, and recognizes that the future is not predetermined but rather shaped by the choices we make in the present. Futurist thinking has a long and storied history, from ancient philosophers to contemporary visionaries like Kevin Kelly, Yuval Harari, Michio Kaku, Alvin Toffler, and Jeremy Rifkin. Each of these thinkers has contributed to our understanding of the future and how we can prepare for it.
Foundational Concepts
To guide our thinking about the future, we can start with six foundational concepts. The first is the idea that the future is not fixed, but rather open and malleable, and we have the power to shape it through our actions in the present. The second is that the future is complex, with many interdependent variables that can lead to different outcomes. The third is that the future is uncertain, and we can never predict it with complete accuracy. The fourth is that the future is connected to the past and the present, and we can learn from history to better anticipate what lies ahead. The fifth is that the future is socially constructed, and is influenced by cultural, political, and economic forces. Finally, the sixth foundational concept is that the future is ethical, and our choices today will have ethical implications for future generations.
Six Questions
Building on these foundational concepts, we can ask six questions to help us think more deeply about the future. They are as follows:
- The first question is “What is probable?” We can use trendspotting and analysis of current drivers to forecast likely future scenarios. What are the emerging trends and forces that are shaping the future?
- The second question is “What is possible?” This involves imagining what could happen if we push the limits of technology and innovation. What are the possible scenarios for the future, and what are their implications?
- The third question is “What is preferable?” This requires thinking about the future we want to create, and considering the ethical implications of our choices. What are the preferred futures that we aspire to, and what steps can we take to achieve them?
- The fourth question is “What is preventable?” This involves identifying potential risks and dangers that we can work to avoid. What are the unintended consequences and risks associated with the possible futures?
- The fifth question is “What is predictable?” This requires recognizing patterns in history and society that can help us anticipate future developments. What are the ethical and moral implications of the possible futures?
- The final question is “What is preposterous?” This involves thinking outside the box and considering unconventional, imaginative scenarios that may seem far-fetched but could have important implications.How can we take action in the present to shape the future we desire?
Six Pillars
To put these concepts and questions into practice, we can use six pillars of futures thinking. The first pillar is signals analysis, which involves monitoring small, seemingly insignificant events that could be early indicators of important future developments. The second is drivers analysis, which involves identifying key forces that will shape the future. The third is trendspotting, which involves analyzing current trends to predict future developments. The fourth is scenario planning, which involves creating multiple possible future scenarios and considering the implications of each. The fifth is sci-fi prototyping, which involves using speculative fiction to explore new ideas and technologies. The final pillar is worldbuilding, which involves creating rich, detailed visions of the future that can inspire and guide our actions in the present.
Updated Version: 10 May 2023
Big History: Contextualizing Sociocultural Evolution
The Big History Project is an interdisciplinary approach that seeks to understand the interconnectedness of the universe, Earth, and human history. By examining the major events and processes that have shaped the cosmos, our planet, and human societies, Big History provides a broader context for understanding the evolution of human civilization.
Big History is organized into eight major thresholds, which represent significant turning points in the development of complexity:
Threshold 1 : The Big Bang
Threshold 2 : The Stars Light Up
Threshold 3 : New Chemical Elements
Threshold 4 : Earth & The Solar System
Threshold 5 : Life On Earth
Threshold 6 : Collective Learning
Threshold 7 : Agriculture
Threshold 8 : The Modern Revolution
These thresholds set the stage for the sociocultural revolutions that have defined human history. By understanding the broader context of Big History, we can better appreciate the complexities of human civilization and the forces that have shaped its development.
Pace Layering: Understanding Change at Different Scales
The Long Now Foundation is an organization dedicated to fostering long-term thinking and responsibility in the context of the next 10,000 years. One of their key concepts is Pace Layering introduced by Stewart Brand, which provides a framework for understanding the different rates at which various aspects of society change.
Pace Layering breaks down society into six layers, each moving at a different speed:
- Nature (slowest)
- Culture
- Governance
- Infrastructure
- Commerce
- Fashion (fastest)
Here’s how Stewart introduced the idea back in 1999:
I propose six significant levels of pace and size in the working structure of a robust and adaptable civilization. […] In a healthy society each level is allowed to operate at its own pace, safely sustained by the slower levels below and kept invigorated by the livelier levels above.
By understanding this Full Stack development the interplay between these layers and the different rates at which they change, we can better appreciate the complexity and interdependence of social systems and develop more effective strategies for shaping the future. This framework also helps us identify the most effective ways to influence and adapt to change, as well as facilitate long-term thinking and planning.
The Futures Cone: Exploring Possible, Probable, and Preferable Futures
The Futures Cone is a visual tool used in futures thinking and strategic foresight to represent the spectrum of possible future scenarios. It is a way of organizing uncertainty and understanding the different paths that the future might take. The cone is divided into several zones, here a some of them:
- Possible Futures: These are all the potential futures that could occur, including highly unlikely and extreme scenarios.
- Probable Futures: These are the futures that are more likely to occur, based on current trends, knowledge, and expectations.
- Preferable Futures: These are the futures that we would like to see happen, reflecting our values, desires, and aspirations.
The Futures Cone provides a useful framework for thinking about the future in a systematic and structured way. It encourages us to consider a range of potential outcomes, rather than focusing solely on a single predicted future. This can help us better prepare for uncertainty and develop more resilient and adaptable strategies.
Future Thinking Methods and Processes: Navigating the Complexities of Human Civilization
Various methods and processes can be employed to explore the future and navigate the complexities of human civilization. These approaches can help us better understand the forces shaping our world and identify opportunities and challenges that lie ahead.
Some of the most commonly used future thinking methods and processes include:
- Scenario Planning: This involves creating multiple plausible stories about the future, based on different assumptions and variables. Scenario planning helps organizations and individuals anticipate change and develop strategies to adapt and thrive in various potential future contexts.
- Trend Analysis: This involves studying historical patterns and current developments to identify emerging trends and understand their potential implications for the future. Trend analysis can provide valuable insights into the forces shaping our world and the likely direction of change.
- Backcasting: This is a process where a desired future outcome is identified, and then steps are worked out in reverse to determine what actions must be taken in the present to achieve that outcome. Backcasting helps to clarify long-term goals and the pathways to achieve them.
- Delphi Technique: This is a structured communication method that uses expert opinions to forecast future developments. The Delphi technique involves multiple rounds of questionnaires and feedback, allowing experts to refine their predictions based on the collective knowledge of the group.
- Wild Cards: These are unexpected events or developments that can have a significant impact on the future. Identifying potential wild cards can help organizations and individuals prepare for unforeseen challenges and opportunities.
Integrating Perspectives: A Comprehensive Timeline of Humanity’s Past, Present, and Potential Future.
By integrating the insights from Big History, sociocultural revolutions, the Pace Layering Thinking, the Futures Cone, and various future thinking methods and processes, we can develop a comprehensive understanding of humanity’s past, present, and potential future. This holistic view can help us navigate the complexities of human civilization and guide our actions towards a more sustainable, equitable, and prosperous future.
A Brief History of Storytelling by Alex McDowell
Lessons from the Great Thinkers
Throughout history, futurist thinking has played a crucial role in shaping our understanding of the world and our place in it. Ancient philosophers like Plato and Aristotle grappled with questions about the nature of time and the future. In the Renaissance, thinkers like Leonardo da Vinci and Francis Bacon imagined new possibilities for science and technology. In the 20th century, futurist visionaries like Alvin Toffler and Jeremy Rifkin helped us understand the social and economic implications of rapid technological change. Today, futurist thinkers like Kevin Kelly, Yuval Harari, and Michio Kaku continue to push the boundaries of what we thought was possible.
To illustrate the power of futures thinking, let’s look at some examples from history, philosophy, technology, and culture. In the 1960s, Alvin Toffler wrote “Future Shock”, which warned of the disorienting effects of rapid technological and social change. In the 1990s, Kevin Kelly wrote “Out of Control”, which celebrated the emergent and decentralized nature of technology, and in 2010, he wrote “What Technology Wants” which introduces the concept of the technium, a self-organizing and evolving system of technology with its own desires and tendencies. Kelly explores the evolution of technology and its key trends and patterns, as well as the cultural and social implications of these trends.
In the 21st century, Yuval Harari has written “Sapiens” and “Homo Deus”, which explore the past and future of human evolution and the idealogies we’ve adopted and introduce Dataism as a possible new type of ‘religion’. Jeremy Rifkin has written “The Third Industrial Revolution”, & “The Zero Marginal Cost Society”, which argues for a transition to a sustainable and decentralized energy system and how he explores the potential of the sharing economy and the internet of things to create a post-capitalist society with near-zero marginal costs.
Finally, Michio Kaku is a theoretical physicist who explores the cutting edge of science and technology in his books and TV programs. Michio Kaku has written “Physics of the Future”, which speculates about the future of technology and physics. And also written “The Future of Humanity”, he discusses the possibilities of colonizing other planets and the technological advances that will make it possible. He also explores the ethical and social implications of these advances, such as the impact on human society and the environment. Kaku’s work is a testament to the power of imagining what is possible and pushing the boundaries of what we thought was achievable.
These thinkers and writers all share a deep curiosity and imagination about the future, as well as a willingness to challenge conventional wisdom and assumptions. They use futures thinking to explore the possibilities and opportunities of the future, and to create alternative visions and scenarios. They recognize the power of technology to shape the future, but also the importance of ethics, values, and social justice in guiding its development.
Challenges and Opportunities
As we navigate the complex and rapidly-changing world of the 21st century, we face both challenges and opportunities. The Age of Bewilderment, as it has been called, is characterized by rapid technological change, social and political upheaval, and environmental challenges. In this context, futures thinking can help us navigate this uncertainty by providing a framework for understanding the future and empowering us to create the future we desire.
Futures thinking can also help us address some of the most pressing issues of our time. For example, in the face of climate change, we can use futures thinking to imagine and work toward a future that is sustainable and resilient. In the face of economic inequality, we can use futures thinking to imagine and work toward a future that is more just and equitable. In the face of technological change, we can use futures thinking to imagine and work toward a future that is human-centered and ethical.
“The real problem of humanity is the following: We have Paleolithic emotions, medieval institutions and godlike technology.” – Edward O. Wilson
Preferred Future : Protopia
One of the most exciting aspects of futures thinking is the possibility of creating a better future for ourselves and future generations. This is the concept of Protopia, a future that is always becoming but never arrives. Protopia is a vision of a constantly improving world, where we are constantly striving to make things better. This requires both imagination and action. We must imagine the future we want to create, and then take concrete steps to make that future a reality.
So what steps can we take to move toward our preferred future of Protopia? First, we must cultivate a mindset of futures thinking, and practice the six foundational concepts, six questions, and six pillars of futures thinking. This will enable us to better anticipate and shape the future. Second, we must be proactive in imagining and working toward the future we want to create. This may involve participating in civic and political life, developing new technologies, or creating new forms of art and culture that inspire and guide us. Finally, we must be mindful of the ethical implications of our choices, and work to create a future that is just and equitable for all.
In conclusion,
The future is not predetermined, but rather shaped by the choices we make in the present. Futures thinking provides a powerful framework for understanding and shaping the future, and is essential for navigating the complex and rapidly-changing world of the 21st century. By practicing the six foundational concepts, six questions, and six pillars of futures thinking, we can better anticipate and shape the future, and create a world that is more just, equitable, and sustainable. The Age of Bewilderment presents both challenges and opportunities, but with a mindset of futures thinking and a commitment to Protopia, we can create a better future for ourselves and future generations.
