Beyond First Principle Thinking: A New Framework for Explanation & Systems-based Problem-solving
Reasoning and problem-solving are simply the creation of new knowledge. Understanding how knowledge creation works is therefore one of the most valuable abilities we can train, yet it is rarely considered a stand-alone skill.
In this article, we’ll distinguish between two forms of knowledge and provide a practical framework for reasoning based on explanations.
This framework is part of a book in progress titled: The 5 Acts.
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Let’s start by contrasting two types of knowledge and their properties:
* There are good and bad explanations. A good explanation is hard to vary and makes a narrow & risky prediction. Bad explanations that are easily varied shouldn't even be considered. Examples include invoking the supernatural or specifying a prescription without argumentation. If you’d like to dive deeper into this topic, I recommend reading Chapter 1 of The Beginning of Infinity by David Deutsch.
Rule-of-thumb knowledge is the original form of knowledge. Apart from humans, genetic knowledge and all downstream behaviors of organisms operate this way. In fact, humans are likely the only entities in the entire universe capable of creating explanatory knowledge. This certainly does not mean that rational thought guides our every movement. Even most of our cognitive knowledge is based on rules of thumb (or wisdom). Fortunately, we can harness the power of explanatory knowledge through deliberate practice.
First Principle thinking is a framework that uses explanation-based reasoning. It was recently popularized by Elon Musk who applied it in his businesses. instead of taking the fact that space travel is expensive as a given, SpaceX sought to find out why. They identified that the high cost of rockets stemmed from their single-use nature. After each mission, the costly rockets get discarded. SpaceX challenges this approach and aims to make rockets reusable.
However, First Principle thinking misses one critical nuance: the deepest level of abstraction isn’t always the optimal one to analyze. Understanding how ATP powers cellular processes is useful for biologists but not so much for individuals looking to improve their physical fitness.
A method that does include a deliberate analysis to the optimal depth of a problem is The 5 Acts. In addition, the framework includes:
- Analyzing the context of the problem using system thinking
- Fundamental explanations on how reality, people, and agency work
- A practical breakdown of how to effectively take action and integrate learnings
To demonstrate how it works, we’ll run through an example
Applying The 5 Acts Framework For Explanation-Based Problem-solving
Step 1: Dissecting the problem
The problem you initially recognize is typically expressed as a higher-level summary. For example:
Problem: “I feel unhealthy, and it’s lowering my enjoyment of life.”
We can only effectively solve this problem if we find its root causes. Therefore, we divide the problem into its constituent levels by asking: “What caused this problem?”, and repeat this until we can no longer find a deeper reason. After this, we ask the following questions for each problem layer:
- Success criterion: What criterion or target has to be met to consider the problem at this level solved?
- Fitting solution: Which action(s) would fulfill the success criterion?
- Effectiveness: To determine the effectiveness answer two questions: Will it solve more issues (in the long term) than it creates? And secondly, how resource intensive is it to execute?
In this case, we choose level 4 as the optimal level because it’s the most effective compared to the other layers. Layers 1–3 merely relieve symptoms and layers 5–7 are too complex and uncertain.
We just followed a single branch in the dissection of the problem. But in reality, there are several causes at each level. For instance, we didn’t explore how sleep and exercise significantly impact energy levels.
The analysis does not have to follow a rigid format. Once you’ve run through the layer-defining process several times, you can do it adequately in your mind.
Now that the problems we aim to target have been found, it’s important to verify that we accurately defined the problem and success criterion. This gives you a clear marker against which you can track progress, error-correct, and reflect.
My recommended way of specifying goals is the OKR framework. An OKR consists of an Objective, which tells and inspires you where to go, and multiple Key Results, which are the results you need to achieve to complete your Objective. This is an example of a simple OKR:
- Objective: Get fitter than ever
- Key result 1: Lose 3 kg of fat
- Key result 2: Bring avg. resting heart rate down to 60
Consider trying my goal-setting framework here if you’d appreciate a run-down on defining killer goals.
Step 2: Analyze the systems that are at play
After honing in on the problem, we can use our understanding to get a complete picture of the environment influencing the problem. These interactions are not one-off events but part of a system. Therefore, it's better not to focus on a snapshot of the problem’s context but on the systems that shape it.
The first time you analyze systems like this, it can feel labor-intensive. That’s because you consider many dimensions you don't usually consider. Luckily, your knowledge of systems rapidly compounds and becomes ingrained. That’s primarily because there are core systems that apply in nearly every situation. The 5 Acts Model also conveniently describes these systems at length.
Another benefit of targeting the systems at play is that they often affect several problems. Improving the system therefore often produces more benefits than if you’d concentrate on a single issue. To illustrate this, we’ll plot a system analysis of the 2 top issues (bold), but in practice, you’d do it for all 4.
- Excess amounts of sugar in my diet have caused insulin resistance
- My sedentary lifestyle has caused low caloric needs (BMI)
- My obesity has been causing sleep apnea
- I’ve been drinking the pain away
Of course, it isn't always self-evident how systems affect us and how they can be exploited. Understanding exactly what systems are at play and their significant properties is another skill we must train.
These are the types of questions that you research when evaluating a system:
- What are the interactions and (implicit) laws/rules of the system?
- What are the agents in the system, and what are their incentives?
- How can the system be gamed, corrupted, or exploited?
- What type of uncertainty or hidden asymmetries are present within the system?
The 5 Acts Book will provide more explanations and techniques to analyze the systems at play.
Step 3. Creating the solution using your system analysis
In some cases, a problem requires simple and immediate action. For instance, when you’re making a tactical decision. But our situation and many others necessitate various actions and therefore a more thorough approach in the shape of an implementation plan.
A plan is made for the same reasons as a goal: to have a clear marker against which you can track progress, error-correct, and reflect. It’s certainly not meant to be an elaborate script of the steps and considerations to check off before you start. In fact, the best way to create a solid plan is to structure it so that you begin as soon as possible and structurally improve it based on your experience.
This is how you could create an implementation plan:
3.1 Listing the work you have to do
Think of the routines and projects that would contribute towards fulfilling your goal in the context of your system analysis. Postpone thinking about limitations; the constraints will come in the next step when we start prioritizing.
This is a selection of the outcomes we got from our system analysis:
3.2 Specifying constraints
It helps to define constraints before shaping your plan. This way, you ensure you don’t waste time considering options that aren’t possible. Ask yourself the following questions:
- How much time do I have available to work on my goals?
- Are there hard deadlines I have to consider?
- What is my budget?
- What resources are constrained for me?
- What risks am I not willing to take?
3.2 Sequencing the plan
Plotting your work on a timeline is a great way to visualize all the work as well as your progress toward accomplishing it. The optimal way to sequence our work is to start with the most impactful actions: identifying the 20% of work that will give you 80% of the results.
But, since we’ve established we aren’t entirely rational beings, we might not stick with the plan if we structure it only by objective optimality. Getting started is essential, and to do so, we can ask ourselves other questions to build an effective sequence:
- What would I be most proud of solving?
- What am I most excited to start working on?
- What will require the least amount of effort?
- Which solution will have the most secondary benefits?
- Which solution will provide me with valuable knowledge for future problems?
Below I created a simple example of a timeline with the free productivity tool Notion.so:
Step 4: Implementing and executing your solution
The first four steps describe an effective way to solve problems and reason using Acts 1 through 3. But there’s also an optimal way to implement, execute and improve your solution. That’s what the 4th act in the book is about. As a prelude, here’s an outline of each chapter:
- Chapter 9 sets the principles and rules that govern the system of effective action
- Chapter 10 explains how to construct and harness the power of systems
- Chapter 11 describes how to manage our 2 most important resources: energy and attention.
- Chapter 12 breaks down time-management
- Chapter 13 teaches you techniques to handle disturbances and stay on track
Step 5: Learning and improving your execution
Lastly, the 5th Act describes how learning works and how to incorporate deliberate learning into your execution process to keep improving.
- Chapter 14 explains the mechanism of learning
- Chapter 15 instructs how to optimize your learning potential
- Chapter 16 describes how to prime conditions for the transfer of knowledge to others
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