2014 is going to be one of the biggest years in Apple’s history. I believe Apple is posed to introduce three major new products that will set the course of the company for the next 5 years.
Larger iPhones
The first is a large screen iPhone, and I don’t mean large screen in a little way, but in a big way. Apple will introduce two large screen iPhones while keeping the current 4 inch screen size.
Both the high end S class and the C class will recieve a larger screen.
The 5c currently is $99 for 16 gb and $199 for 32 gb. The 5c will continue exactly the same (A6 processor, 8 mb ƒ/2.4 camera) but will go down in price by a $100 and will now be free in subsidized phone markets, or $99 for the 32 gb.
The 6c will have identical internals to the 5c (A6 processor, 8mb, ƒ/2.4 camera, etc) but with a 4.9 inch screen. The key here is it will have the same resolution as the current 5c, but with larger pixels. Resolution would fall from 326 to 264 dots per inch, identical to the iPad Air, which looks dynamite. It will cost the same as the current 5c: $99 for 16gb and $199 for 32gb.
The 5s will also split into two sizes, the first is a new 5s, same name, same screen size but upgraded mechanicals: A8 processor, new 10 mb ƒ/1.8 camera with optical image stabilization and a bump in capacities, the 16gb goes away and they add 128gb capacity. The price would also stay the same: $199 for 32gb, $299 for 64gb and $399 for 128gb.
The 6s would be a larger screen with more pixels: either a 4.7 with 1600 x 900 (up from the current 1136 x 640) or 5.5 inch screen with 1920 x 1080. I would be suprised if Apple went all the way to 5.5 inches, as that is deep into Phablet territory, but given the importance of the Asia market, it may happen, and I am seeing more and more Notes (screen size 5.7 1920 x 1080). The larger 6s would carry a $100 premium over the 2014 5s: $299 for 32gb, $399 for 64gb and $499 for 128gb.
Apple TV
At WWC Apple will introduce new Apple TV hardware with a die shrunk A7. But the big introduction will be iOS8 which will run on the Apple TV and (finally) bring the App Store to the hockey puck sized device. Part of iOS8 will be APIs that allow games to be controlled from dedicated controllers, or other iOS devices. Most people will use an iPad or iPhone as a controller for Call of Duty on the Apple TV. Apple will introduce their own line of controllers. The controller market will be run like the iPhone case market, Apple will release an expensive high quality option and a dozen other companies will release other variations. The Apple TV will remain $99 but apple will see increased revenue as there will be a significant attachment rate for controllers, which run $60-80.
iWatch
The last big product is the watch which will be launched late in 2014. The suprise here is that it will be expensive. The current state of the art smart watch is the Pebble Steel at $249 and the Galaxy Gear at $299. The iWatch will start at $800+ and will only be available in Apple Stores and select watch stores. The wearable category is in its infancy and Apple will attack this from the top, like it did in music players and phones.
In the $60 billion-a-year watch sector, most of the money flows to those who sell the most expensive devices: 0.6% of the watches shipped in 2012, with an average price of $4,285, were responsible for half the revenue of the entire industry.—Christopher Mims
The watch will come in two sizes aimed at men and women. Though Apple has recently been on a tear hiring all kinds of biosensor experts, this is not for the 2014 iWatch, this first version will be about doing a few things very well and looking sharp on the wrist. Later versions will add sophisticated health tracking.
The iWatch will sell in very limited volume. In fact, the general consensus will be that Apple is blowing it by being too expensive. This is what happened with the first version of the iPod and iPhone which had limitted sales in the first generation. The purpose for this first iWatch will be to set the groundwork for later, more capable versions. I suspect it will look great, possibly with mechanical dials in front of a high resolution screen, this would allow a low energy, always on, time peice and an on demand screen for notifications and other data.
Things Apple will not do
They will not build a 4k television, Sorry Gene.
No iPad Pro or 12 inch iPad. iOS 8 will add additional capabilities, gradually adding complexity and power.
No Macintosh on ARM
Minor things Apple will do
Retina MacBook Air. This is the rumored 12 inch retina display, not a iPad Pro. This will replace the 13 inch MacBook Air. The 11 inch Air will soldier on as the low cost route into a MacBook.
Retina iMac, which will be a high end solution with the current resolution iMacs selling at lower cost.
Retina display for the MacPro
