Japan’s municipalities “at risk of extinction”
In April, Japan’s Population Strategy Council released its “2024 Report on the Sustainability of Local Governments,” which analyzed the current state and challenges faced by municipalities based on newly projected regional populations. NLI Research picked up that theme in a recent article.
The report defines “municipalities at risk of extinction” as those projected to experience a decline of over 50% in their female population aged 20–39 by 2050, compared to the actual figures from the 2020 national census.
The 30-year window represents the crucial period during which women transition into parenthood and contribute to population replenishment. This underscores a critical reality: areas lacking women in their 20s and 30s are highly unlikely to witness a significant increase in births.
Consequently, if a municipality’s population of women within the statistically relevant marriage and childbearing age range is projected to decrease by more than half within a single generation (a parent-child timeframe), the municipality’s long-term sustainability is seriously jeopardized.
Based on the “Sustainability Analysis Report” data, the chart in the title presents a ranking of prefectures based on the percentage of their municipalities designated as “at risk of extinction,” starting with those facing the most severe situations.
The data paints a stark picture for Akita Prefecture, where every municipality except for Akita City is grappling with a drastic decrease in its young female population. The analysis reveals seven prefectures where over 70% of municipalities are labeled as “at risk of extinction.” These are Akita, Aomori, Yamagata, Iwate, Wakayama, Kochi, and Fukushima prefectures, indicating a widespread crisis across the Tohoku region, with the exception of Miyagi Prefecture.
Nine prefectures, ranking from 8th to 16th, show over 50% of their municipalities facing this risk. The national average would fall between the 18th and 19th position, with an overall 43% of municipalities at risk.
The “safest” prefectures are Aichi, Shiga, Tokyo, and Okinawa, with at-risk municipalities of 13%, 10.5%, 3.2% and 0% (sic!), respectively.
Please follow us to read more about Finance & FinTech in Japan, like hundreds of readers do every day. We invite you to also register for our short weekly digest, the “Japan FinTech Observer”, on Medium or on LinkedIn. Our global Finance & FinTech Podcast, “eXponential Finance” is also available through its own LinkedIn newsletter, or via our Podcast Page.
Should you live in Tokyo, or just pass through, please also join our meetup. In any case, our YouTube channel and LinkedIn page are there for you as well.
