Trends in mobile gaming 2014 (1/3)
The first in a three-part exercise in predictive geekery
Although it’s much easier to predict the past, I’ll do my best to foretell how next year will be, based on what we have learned so far and the symptoms the market shows.
First off, the rising of native beasts
Some powerful companies, already grown up in the mobile ecosystem, have been working on big projects, correctly foreseeing that mobile devices would be portable consoles’ natural enemies (something we knew since Nokia N-Gage 10 years ago). In addition, the side business of mobile peripherals, namely gamepads, creates the perfect environment for every sort of high-end technical performance game.
In fact, portables will migrate to their comfort zone close to their moms (PSVita along PS4, 3DS to WiiU). That empty space will be filled with gamer tablets, high-end large screen phones, and Android portable consoles such as OUYA — which has a hard way ahead, because it’s pretty unclear if it can match conveniently accessorized top-notch devices.
The best example is Samsung’s Gamepad. As soon as consumers choose to have a smartphone and a controller instead of a smartphone and a portable console, the huge Korean manufacturer is able to sink all Android consoles’ aspirations all by itself.
Back to games, we have to keep on mind that last-gen devices are just as powerful as sixth generation consoles (PS2), if not even more so. Now that developers have gotten the hang of simplifying gaming onscreen interfaces to their core essence, plus the often forgotten accelerometer, the door’s open to great and high budget games without cumbersome input modes. We look forward for games like Vivid’s Godfire, let alone what Gameloft, Glu, and other major players want to do.
Big mobile videogaming companies are mature enough to profit from an audience already prone to play bigger and more demanding games. The big announcements next year will deal with “look at those graphics” and “I can’t believe it’s mobile” headlines.
Show me the money
It’s unlikely these aforementioned monsters will subscribe to the freemium formula. We’ll leave this trend behind in 2013, and people won’t fear games sold between 3 and 6 dollars. This doesn’t mean they’ll actually like it — but Android power users are currently quite upset with the aggressive in-app purchase techniques pushed by major companies (example: EA).
Once gamers take the first step and give their VISA number to Google, paying for a complete game is much more appealing. High-quality games without lite versions backed by positive reviews and popular franchises are surpassing the 100K downloads milestone, something unheard of just a couple of years ago.
iOS gamers will see this as a natural evolution of the App Store market, though don’t expect strategies like Square’s (i.e. multiple releases of $10 games). $0.99 for a casual or indie game is fine, $3 for neat and playworthy game is fine, and $6 for a heck of game is even finer.
Hence, the gap between hardcore and casual gaming will widen. There will be more freemium games than ever and freemium-ness will be the standard, but the big releases are not going to stick to that formula.
I won’t miss nostalgia anymore
Of course, Square marches to the beat of its own drum and can live happily forever after just by relaunching and rebooting and reselling its own games. After the release of old Final Fantasy games for mobile at unsound prices this year, it’s easy to tell what will come next. In fact, it has already started: Dragon Quest 1 and Tomb Raider 1 (yes, I mean TR1, not the Anniversary edition) have been launched, and the sequels will come shortly after.
In the end, you have an old game, you put it in a capsule, and you kick it to the nearest app store to be sold for an affordable price. It implies little investment, and you don’t have to rely on reviews or advertising at all: it’s pure profit. SEGA, Capcom and SNK are following that trail, albeit a bit more humbly, and you can bet on many other developers are jumping onto that bandwagon.
It’s a shame, because we all know that, while these games that were fun at the time, they might not have the same luster when played on mobile once again.
What we won’t see next year are official emulators. Granted, Atari did it early this year, releasing the emulator app for free and selling oldies as in-app purchases, resulting in six million downloads. Unfortunately, nothing hints an emulator app by Nintendo or whoever.
Heir to the Candy Crush-dom
Every time I’m asked to predict the next megahit, my answer is ‘Farmville’. It was the epitome of casual gaming, made of mechanical gameplay, a total social nuisance, and made its way into mainstream media. Where is it now?
What are you up to, Zynga? Yes, Zynga’s still afloat, but it’s an example of how casual gaming trends last for a year. Likewise, Angry Birds is still on top of the wave thanks to Rovio’s perseverance, but it isn’t trendy anymore.
Anyway, if I had to point my finger towards a firm candidate, it would be something rather close to Puzzle & Dragons — but not exactly that either.
Firstly, because busty elven sorceresses and manga dragons scare housewives. Period.
Secondly, because developers are too much focused on “collectible” card games, and they forget what “trading” card games were. If we take Pokémon as an example, it’d be even better if a card exchange were done via local wi-fi, thus viralizing the game ad personam.
Anyway, with a more mainstream design avoiding fantasy topics plus a few tweaks in gameplay, Puzzle-and-dragon-ism has all the key elements it needs to be the next Candy-Crush-ism. At the same time, it wouldn’t be a rupture with the current status quo at all, as players (including CCG players, who are compulsive in-app purchasers) would feel comfortable with a more rewarding game.
Chess? Did you say chess?
We’ve talked many times about why the future of videogaming is non-videogamers, something that Nintendo understood eons ago but major mobile developers are sometimes reluctant to admit.
Anyway, don’t run into your doomsday bunker if you hear that some kind of asynchronous backgammon game or an otherwise online trivia game is encroaching upon the top of the charts, because that’s something that cyclically happens. Strategy and board games will also keep their market share, but relevant changes or ground-breaking newcomers are unlikely.
A mobile version of HeroQuest would be timely and would look great next to $10 SpaceHulk and $3 Talisman, but it wouldn’t be the killer app tactical games need either.
Clash-of-Clanning will still be a hobby in the civilized world, but it will reach a deadlock sooner rather than later. It’s far above its myriad of competitors, but can’t evolve anywhere. The other Supercell game, Hay Day, won’t take its place either.
It is great to have learnt to read
On the other hand, I’m eager to know where narrative games are going to end. Walking Dead has been such a huge success on so many levels (namely monetization formula, transmedia synergy, critics’ reviews) that Telltale’s Game of Thrones is already one of the most highly anticipated games for next year. Even though we all would have loved an open world GTA5-like Game of Thrones game, a ME3-like RPG game or any other acronym-like high budget game, truth is it’s been a very wise move. Critics and users alike have embraced the idea with enthusiasm.
Concurrently, some brave developers are bringing back gamebooks, so all nerds older than 30 (where the money lies) are happy. Narr8 is a platform that can reach incredible profits in the long term. Yes, here’s a reason to buy (more) tablets, thanks to the conjunction of readable and playable contents.
The question is if this model can be exported to non-nerd interests. Let’s hope 2014 brings some surprises in this regard. Will someone dare to develop a Scandal’s or House of Cards storytelling game? Pushing the envelope even further: an Orange is the new Black game, or any other social drama? Days of our Lives or other soap-operas?
These kind of games can be very alluring to players not used to playing videogames, and the “season” system is quite easily sold to everyone accustomed to watching series (that is, literally everyone). It’s a clever update on the trial version formula.
Check out the second part in this series.
