6/22 Global Market Analysis — Metals, Commodities, SPY, Recession, DXY

This time, this one is going to be much, much bigger. Buckle up, fam. This is “Everything” analysis. The whole kitchen sink. As has already been established, bitcoin is bearish. I posted that one here:

6/22 BTC/Cryptocurrency Market Analysis — Bearish

Time to get on with the show. Starting with the SPY, the answer is: SPY is honestly bullish still, but it depends on where we go from here. There have been warnings of recession and they’re very likely. We have a ton more downside than upside.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-16/jpmorgan-strategists-say-stocks-imply-85-chance-of-us-recession. I mean, everything is down. But….technically speaking from a weekly basis, everything is bearish outside of moving averages. Very, very solidly so. But from a moving average standpoint, this is a bullish correction. If we hit a 2008 crash/recession scenario, then we have about 50% to drop on the stock market.

that 348 line for the bigtime moving averages is significant here

The image below here reflects on what happened in 2008. 40% drop *after* getting under the 200MA.

here’s what 2008 looked like. 40%+ drop below the MA’s.

If we’re looking at a 2008 style crash, we have a long way to go, and a lot uglier to get. I mean, the end results here are not going to be pretty, to say the least.

Yep, 212 on the SPY. Imagine a single put if you could afford a yearlong put on the SPY to ride from 348 -> 212. The profit would be immense. That’d be $13k off one put if it works out, at a cost of (considerably less).

So, what the hell are people to do if the entire market goes down? Short, for one. This is when traders make a boatload and everyone’s 401k cries. I’ve read that suicide among elderly is increasing and common. Obviously with nothing to retire on, that will probably get worse. Yep, happy fun time is not what’s on the table right now, after the covid crisis and global climate change.

So what about Gold, Silver? Gold looks like it’s about to dump into uglytown. Anyone telling you gold is a recession proof asset is about to find out why that may not necessarily be the case. I’d be looking to short gold if it goes under $1653, because that shit is going way down if so. Given the increased supply from Uganda (12 Trillion Dollars worth on estimate, it would be prudent.

a double top on the weekly? Huzzah! (if you’re short)

Alright, so gold is out. Clearly, gold is not where you go for safety, where grandma puts her mattress money. Physical assets yay! Let’s look at silver. Silver actually completed a giant rounding bottom/cup and handle, and actually looks okay. I don’t know behind the scenes if there is some significant demand coming, but I think silver actually looks alright.

SLV chart. world’s biggest rounding bottom. 10 years long.

Palladium on the other hand, is about to drop like a stone. I think about a 50% drop is a head, because this is not pretty. It looks like end of Bitcoin ATH cycle sort of scenario, ending in the opposite of the V rally people love to quote for Bitcoin, usually incorrectly.

Palladium: ready to nosedive.

Well, what about currencies? DXY (US Dollar index) is stronger than ever and primed to pump, despite all the inflation danger and recession danger. Looks like the whole CBDC thing may end quite positively for the US.

giant rounding bottom here, we can go way up from here on DXY.

This shows on every single currency too, where the USD charts print bullish, showing that the other currencies are tanking. Example: USDJPY, the Yen is just dropping like a stone, including on news that their debt has reached catastrophic proportions, the highest of any country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_Japan .

“As of 2022, the Japanese public debt is estimated to be approximately US$12.20 trillion US Dollars (1.4 quadrillion yen), or 266% of GDP, and is the highest of any developed nation.”

So, trade Japan for Uganda, if these were baseball teams. Got it.

USD is being worth more and more yen, bullish for USD

What about our favorite country burdened by Evergrande? IE with the Winnie the Pooh dictator, China! Who has been so busy trying to take over Taiwan to wage economic terrorism that they decided to let their economy take the brunt of the impact. Not that they’d ask anyone’s opinions, especially the Uyghurs. I honestly expect China to go after Russia so that it’s just the US vs China for the world at this point.

Anyway, we’re looking pretty strongly like the Renminbi is at a turning point, where if we break up (likely) that means the Renminbi will crash accordingly. It could take weeks to months (later in the year), but I would be longing USD vs Renminbi.

USD to Renminbi chart. We are primed for a major, major upwards breakout unless we reject here which is unlikely

What about Canada? What about them, I guess. Looks like another giant cup and handle is happening, all the way back to 2003. I don’t think this is going to end well for Canada, but it will for the US — is how it seems. I guess the US potential strength as the financial leader is about to be resecured.

okay, so not canada

What about the Euro? Well, EURUSD is dropping, which means the USD is getting stronger, as well. I guess 2008 was the peak for EURUSD and now we’re headed into uglytown for the Euro (and not for USD). Guess EUR won’t be any better hedge, either.

EURUSD is very bearish (EUR), and has only gotten started. I suspect 3–5 years +

I’m not going to even bother mentioning the Ruble because nobody gives a shit and nobody wants it anyway. The only thing Russia is good at is genocide, and war crimes, which appear to be a work in progress in Ukraine. I guess you can also add trying to take down the UK and America via Texas. I mean they deliberately forced the ruble to be more valued vs the USD — which works, assuming anyone even was willing to sell USD to Ruble at a loss. A massive loss. Or you can wait like 5 years for Russia to collapse entirely, and then sell USD to Ruble at like 1000:1. I sure wouldn’t trade it, but whatever.

Russian currency, go fuck yourself

What about India, who is happily accepting Russian Oil and willing to send propaganda accordingly? The chart is so bullish towards USD it looks like the SPY stock market, but that’s the Rupee. In short, I think USD will probably triple vs the Rupee. It was a very short term move to accept the oil, and the results will be disastrous for both countries.

There’s one word for this: Fucked. Great if you want to long USD vs the Rupee though.

Unsurprisingly, USO (US Oil Fund) is also primed to explode upwards over time. So that’s something that will be interesting considering the entire world is trying to get away from oil dependency in general. This war with Russia has pushed more towards EV’s and renewables than anything.

This will probably go way up from here.

So in summary: SLV maybe okay, USD probably okay, everyone else fucked.