Brexit Impact Studies (from Maria Ana Cataluna).

“Cliff-Edge Brexit” — Number 55. “Brexit and GFA” — Number 38.

Maria Ana Cataluna put together a very useful thread which compiled Brexit Impact Studies from various sources. She then asked others to contribute any more they thought relevant. The initial reports were mainly papers from the Royal Society of Edinburgh (1–15, 17).

Others notable reports were from from Federation of Small Business (20) Council of British Chambers of Commerce in Europe (21), the CBI (22, 62 and (pro -”a” Customs Union intervention) 87) and EU Parliament (18, 23, 34). The Trade Union Congress (TUC) have said that the EEA (stay in Single Market and Customs Union) option should be kept on the table (52) and their Irish counterparts believe this is the best way to protect jobs and avoid a hard border (64). The Institute of Directors have a Brexit hub for “the latest information, guidance and advice” and “the definitive guide” for Navigating Brexit (86). The Institute for Govt report (68)is interesting as Peter Foster, Daily Telegraph Europe correspondent, says “all the EU negotiators are reading it”. Former Conservative MP Stewart Jackson (@Stewart4Pboro) who is now a Special Advisor and Chief of Staff to David Davis said it was “well worth a read”. Also worth looking at is the National Farmers Union (29).

Regarding the latter, farmers in Northern Ireland (and the DUP) might take a note of the NFU opening sentence —”Average farm profitability could drop from £38,000 to £15,000 a year in the worst case scenario as a result of policy and performance challenges that come from Brexit, modelling work has revealed.”

Those “friends of Ulster” within the Conservative Party who push for a No-Deal Brexit as an ideal solution should be asked if this is what they wish.

Important update — Joint EU and UK Phase 1 agreement (85) from 8 Dec 17. As the Good Friday Agreement (GFA) and the ‘hard border’ issue features here, I’ve also included a link to the UK Govt “Northern Ireland Position Paper” (Aug 17) there. Regarding the GFA, it’s also worthwhile looking at reports featured in (23), (38), (64), (89) and (110).

For more on “Brexit, the hard border and the Good Friday Agreement”, please read my post here (7 Feb 18). I’ve compiled a series of articles on this issue from different sources (eg UK Govt, EU Parliament, Trade Unions, Business, Brexiters, Lexiters) to give some idea of the variety of views on the subject.

Update (7 Dec 17). I’ve added three reports from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (35) where they want “unrestricted access to the single market of Europe” and “free movement of labour within European borders”. Update (03 Mar 18) House of Commons BEIS report on automotive industry (112)-”On the key issue of the future regulatory regime, the report does not identify any potential benefits from divergence from the EU, only costs”

By the way, there are a couple of charts produced by the Institute for Government outling different trading options for the UK and the EU — one where there is a deal and a no-deal scenario.

Michel Barnier was photographed holding the first document so I think it’s fair to say he thinks it’s very useful.

Anyway, I hope these Brexit Impact Studies are a useful reference point and all thanks should be directed to Maria for compiling them.

PS (7 Dec 17) If you see any more Brexit Impact Studies which you think should be included here, either contact me on Twitter or leave details in the comments section below.

PPS On 19 Dec 17, Michel Barnier showed the “Stairway to Brexit” diagram (below) to EU leaders pointing out that the logic of the UK’s “red lines” led to a Canada-style Free Trade Agreement. However, as noted here, this would go against the Good Friday Agreement and the UK Govt’s “guarantee” of no hard border on the island of Ireland.

1. Challenges & Opportunities: Migration, Diversity, Rights and Social Protection (Royal Society of Edinburgh).
2. Challenges & Opportunities: Economy, Public Finance & Economic Strategy (RSE)
3. Challenges & Opportunities: Research, Innovation & Tertiary [Higher/Further] Education (RSE).
4. Observatory: Listening to the voices of those affected by the Brexit vote, in the research, innovation and tertiary [higher/further] education sectors (Young Academy of Scotland/RSE).
5. The Impact on Scotland (YAS) [but covers UK as a whole too]
6. Environment, Energy and Climate (RSE).
7. The European Referendum: Agriculture, Food and Rural Policy Issues [pre Brexit vote]
8. Social Policy in the European Union [pre #Brexit vote].
9. Trade and the 2016 European Referendum [pre #Brexit vote]
10. In, Out, or In-Between? Britain’s Uncertain Place in Europe after the European Referendum [pre #Brexit vote, place still uncertain #justsaying]
11. The EU and Human Rights [pre #Brexit vote]
12. The European Referendum — Labour Markets, Migration and Benefits [pre #Brexit vote]
13. European Union Immigration [pre #Brexit vote]
14. Some (Macro) Economic Aspects of the European Referendum [pre #Brexit vote].
15. Other related reports/papers on RSE’s policy portal (constantly updated)
16. Many “UK in a changing Europe” resources here. Twitter: @UKandEU
17. Brexit and UK Science (Royal Society). @royalsociety
18. Brexit impact studies by the European Parliament, compiled here. Via @RCorbettMEP @EPinUK
19. Brexit means…? The British Academy’s Priorities for the Humanities and Social Sciences in the Current Negotiations” @britac_news
20. Federation of Small Businesses — “A skilful exit: what small firms want from Brexit” [significant emphasis on access to skills, several case studies which show the potential impact of Brexit]. @fsb_policy
21. Council of British Chambers of Commerce in Europe: “Brexit — the Voices of European Business”. [many case studies in various business sectors, showing potential impact of regulatory divergence, tariffs, barriers to movement of people, etc]. @COBCOE
22. CBI report — “Making a success of Brexit” [Highly informative, covering 18 broad business sectors. Helpful summary table at the beginning with the key stats and Brexit views for each sector]. @CBItweets
23. “The European Parliament has commissioned three detailed impact assessments on Brexit and the Irish border question.” (Thread)
24. Might be overlapped with some of the above, but a more complete and up-to-date list of reports from European Parliament and can be found here.
25. The EU meat industry in a hard Brexit scenario”, from UECBV. [In such a scenario, forecasts massive drop in trade in both directions UK <> EU27, with 90% drop of UK beef exports to EU27].
26. Agri-food sector: a great compilation of Brexit Reports from @BhamFoodCouncil from various sources.
27. Brexit Impact assessments for UK financial services, by PwC, commissioned by TheCityUK, with various Brexit scenarios.
28. Brexit Impact assessment for the UK economy, commissioned by @CBItweets , carried out by PwC, considering various scenarios.
29. National Farmers Union Brexit study. (via @_neilch)
30. Center for Economic Studies (Munich) “IFO gravity modelled trade consequences of 8 different Brexit scenarios. Conclusions sobering “— (via Robert Slinger‏ @robertkapok)
31. Chatham House report on Japanese Government assessment of Brexit — via J‏ @TrundleAlong
32. And the Japanese Government assessment of Brexit.
33. Round up of @CIBSE articles and reports — Claire Thirlwall‏ @ThirlwallAssoc
34. EU Parliament assessment of Brexit on EU27 — via @lanieleaf
35. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (@SMMT) have produced a number of Brexit related reports. Here, here and here.
36. Portland Communications have published “Cliff Edge: Is Britain ready for a No Deal?” Btw, you have to give them an email to gain access to the document (added 9 Dec 17).
37. @OxeraConsulting partner Andrew Meaney wrote on “the implications of Brexit for UK ports” (added 9 Dec 17).
38. Report by @hayward_katy & @DPhinnemore for @EPInstitutional on “Brexit and the Good Friday Agreement”. Katy Hayward’s tweet was retweeted by @StefaanDeRynck adviser to Michel Barnier on 27 Nov 17.
39. @RANDEurope have published the “Economic Implications of Brexit”. (added 12 Dec 17).
40. @RandEurope published “Defence and Security after Brexit” (Mar 17).
41. @unitetheunion published “Building Solidarity Across Borders: Gibraltar and Brexit” (July 17)
42. Other @unitetheunion Brexit Resources via @BrexitCheck.
43. Len McCluskey speech (July 2017) on Brexit and Gibraltar saying that Freedom of Movement is necessary between the latter and Spain.
44. @UniGroningenFEB @CityREDI and @UoS_Management published their Brexit sector studies on 12 Dec 17 (added 19 Dec 17). @CityREDI has their “Assesment risks for 54 industries” report here.
45. @LordsEUCom published their report on a No Deal Brexit on 7 Dec 17 (added 19 Dec 17).
46. @scotgov published “Brexit: What’s at stake for businesses” (Oct 17). (added 20 Dec 17).
47. @FIAconnect published “The Impact of a No-Deal Brexit on the Cleared Derivatives Industry” (19 Dec 17). (added 20 Dec 17).
48. @CommonsEUexit published 39 Sectoral Reports (21 Dec 17 added same date).
49. From 24 March 2017 report from Welsh Assembly Climate Change, Environment and Rural Affairs Committee. One notable sentence — “Given that 90 per cent of Welsh food and drink exports go to the EU, it is vital that Wales has full tariff and quota free access to the Single Market.” This committee was chaired by Mark Reckless AM, a Vote Leave campaigner.(Added 27 Dec 2017).
50. From 18 April 2016 — “HM Treasury analysis: the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives.” (Added 27 Dec 2017).
51. @CBIBizVoice (CBI Magazine) have started a series of reports detailing business issues with Brexit (12 Dec 17). This one deals with the automotive industry. (Added 28 Dec 17).
52. @The_TUC published “Putting Brexit to the test” on 30 Nov 2017 which is pro EEA Brexit solution. (Added 31 Dec 2017).
53. @UKTradeForum aim to promote evidence-based policy on the future of UK trade as it leaves the EU. (Added 3 Jan 2018).
54. @UKandEU “promotes rigorous, high-quality and independent research into the complex and ever changing relationship between the UK and the European Union (EU).” (Added 3 Jan 2018).
55. @BusinessEurope (who include @CBItweets) published “Consequences of a cliff-edge Brexit” on 7 Dec 17. (Added 3 Jan 18).
56. @PortOfRotterdam published “Brexit and the Port of Amsterdam” on 13 Dec 17. 100 new Customs officers and extra inspections — i.e. not frictionless trade. (Added 3 Jan 18).
57. @britishchambers published “Securing a business-friendly trade deal with EU must be New Year priority” on 27 Dec 18. (Added 3 Jan 18).
58. @voxeu (“Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists”) have many Brexit Reports on their site. (Added 4 Jan 18).
59. @InstituteGC published “Tony Blair : Brexit what we know now” on 4 Jan. (Added 4 Jan 18).
60. @APG_Agroecology published “APPG [All Party Parliamentary Group] summary on inquiry into impact of new trade on food and farming post brexit” on 4 Jan 18. (Added 4 Jan 18).
61. @CEP_LSE (“a leading European economic research centre based at the LSE Research Lab”) have many Brexit Reports here. h/t @fascinatorfun (Added 4 Jan 18).
62. @CBItweets have a series on “Brexit and EU negotiations” with priorities and sector analysis. (Added 4 Jan 18).
63. @The_TUC published “Disability rights Risks of Brexit” on 19 May 2016. h/t @Clivedurdle
64. @irishcongress & @NIC_ICTU have many Brexit Reports including this from 8 Dec 2017 -”The view of Congress is, and remains, that the best and most logical way to avoid such a hard border is for the UK as a whole to remain in both the single market and customs union. Our colleagues in the TUC fully concur with this view, as indeed do the majority of the business community on these islands”. Similar view to @CBI_NI as can be seen here. (Added 6 Jan 18).
65. From 13 Dec 17 — Manufacturing Northern Ireland view on the state of Brexit negotiations. (Added 9 jan 2018).
66. @TUCGlobal publishes “The Customs Bill threatens UK industry and Jobs” by @Rosa_Crawford. h/t @ma_cataluna (Added 9 Jan 2018).
67. @MichelBarnier made this speech at the “Trends Manager of the Year 2017 event” on 9 Jan 18 that companies should prepare Brexit Impact Reports —” It is therefore important that all businesses clearly analyse their exposure to the United Kingdom and are ready to adapt their logistical channels, supply chains and contractual clauses, including in the financial services sector.” (Added 9 Jan 18).
68. @instituteforgov “Trade after Brexit” (18 Dec 17) by @jl_owen @awstojanovic & @jillongovt. @pmdfoster (Europe editor of Daily Telegraph) says “It’s what all the top EU negotiators are reading…” (Added 10 Jan 18).
69. @FT reports (10 jan 18) that @EU_Commission warns about 15 UK companies of post-Brexit regulatory chill eg drugmakers, seafarers, mineral water producers, hauliers and airlines. The warnings tell UK companies they have no automatic right to participate in Single Market after 29 March 2019. This led to David Davis sending a letter to Theresa May complaining about EU preparing for a No Deal Brexit. (Added 10 Jan 18).
70. @britishports (chief exec @richard_bpa) respond (21 Dec 17) to Govt’s Brexit Sector Reports — “The impacts of leaving the Customs Union and Single Market could be substantial The prospect of customs and bureaucratic environmental health checks at the border could potentially create congestion and delays, particularly for HGVs at Roll-on Roll-off ferry ports. This could add costs for traders, manufacturers and consumers.””. (Added 10 Jan 18).
71. @FabianZuleeg wrote “Brexit: Towards a deep and comprehensive partnership?” (5 Dec 17). Other #BrexitReports by @epc_eu also available. (Added 10 Jan 18)
72. @WelshBrexitCU (“debate and analysis on issues relating to Wales and the UK’s exit of the European Union”) have #BrexitReports here. (Added 10 Jan 18).
73. @SCER_eu (“Independent Scottish EU think tank”) have #BrexitReports here. (Added 10 Jan 18).
74. @EuropeanFutures (“Scotland’s academic blog on Europe”) have #BrexitReports here. (Added 10 Jan 18).
75. @MayorofLondon publishes “Preparing for Brexit”. Press release & full report. (Added 11 Jan 18).
76. @lee_georgina of @Channel4News says “These reports will give you more insight into the effects of Brexit” (21 Dec 17) than the UK Govt #BrexitReports. Including retail, food, travel, North Sea Oil, health and financial services. (Added 11 Jan 18)
77. @Creative_Fed published their Brexit report on the impact of leaving the EU on the UK’s creative industries and what should be done. (Added 12 Jan 18).
78. @CCC_Research — “The Repatriation of Competences in Agriculture after Brexit” (12 Jan 18). Other Brexit Reports here. (Added 13 Jan 18).
79. @BALPApilots (12 Dec 17)“repeat concerns following European Commission announcement that EU flights could cease to operate from UK” in the event of no agreement on this. (Added 13 Jan 18).
80. @scotgov publish “Scotland’s Place in Europe: People, Jobs and Investment” — “A Brexit which results in the UK being outside the European Single Market and Customs Union will have the most damaging consequences for Scotland.” Intro and Document. (Added 15 Jan 18).
81. @EU_Commission — ‘Internal EU27 preparatory discussions on the framework for the future relationship: “Aviation”’ (published on and added 17 Jan 18).
82. @EU_Commission — ‘Internal EU27 preparatory discussions on the framework for the future relationship: “Fisheries”’ (published on and added 17 Jan 18).
83. @EP_ThinkTank (EU Parliament research service) published “Brexit / United Kingdom Withdrawal From The EU [Ten Issues To Watch In 2018]”(9Jan18) by @EtienneBassot. Other Brexit Reports from them here. (Added 18 Jan 18)
84. @drechsler_paul of @cbitweets wrote “No more Brexit soap opera: Time to unite to achieve best deal” (5 Nov 17) where a CBI survey ( 2nd — 16th Oct 2017) on #NoDealBrexit contingency plans was published (10% for whom this deadline for already passed; 24% by end of Jan 2018; 26% by end of March 2018). (Added 21 Jan 18).
85. @EU_Commission & @DExEUgov issue “Joint Report on Phase 1 on the negotiations” (8 Dec 17) with guarantee of no hard border on the island of Ireland. UK Govt issued(Aug 17) a “Northern Ireland Position Paper”. (Added 22 Jan 18 and 5 Feb 18).
86. @The_IoD have a Brexit hub for “the latest information, guidance and advice”. Also the IoD’s “definitive report on British business and Brexit” by @AllieRenison. (Added 22 Jan 18).
87. @CBItweets have published “The future UK-EU relationship” (22 Jan 18) to coincide with a speech by @cbicarolyn “A business plan for a good Brexit” (22 Jan 18). (Added 23 Jan 18).
88. @univofstandrews School of Management — “The Impact of Brexit on UK Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises” (22 Jan 18) by @JohnOSWilson2 Ross Brown and José Manuel Liñares-Zegarra. (Added 23 Jan 18).
89. Lars Karlsson of @kgh_customs wrote a piece for the EU Think Tank in Nov17 on the border issue in Northern Ireland. Also by him Nov17 “Brexit-The change of a lifetime” (Added 26 Jan 18).
90. @unitetheunion affiliates to @industriAll_EU who published (30 Jan 18) this. It says the UK should “Maintain British membership in the Single Market and customs union with all rights and obligations.” (Added 31 Jan 18).
91. @EU_Commission “Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU” Info on “the impact of the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU in the area of customs and taxation.. and will be regularly updated” (Added 1 Feb 18).
92. @CBItweets “CBI Survey: How businesses are preparing for Brexit” including info on #NoDealBrexit contingency plans. (Added 1 Feb 18).
93. Netherlands Govt (@Rijksoverheid & @MonaKeijzer) publish “Impact of non-tariff barriers as a result of Brexit” No deal Brexit scenarios. (Added 1 Feb 18).
94. @IRLDeptFinance publish “UK EU EXIT — AN EXPOSURE ANALYSIS OF SECTORS OF THE IRISH ECONOMY” (Oct 16) and “UK EU Exit: Trade Exposures of Sectors of the Irish Economy in a European Context” (Sept 17). (Added 1 Feb 18).
95. @Inter_Trade (“Funded by both NI & ROI Governments”) publish “Potential Impact of WTO tariffs on Cross-Border trade” (June 17) (“tariffs are systematically higher on food products than on any other sectors”). More on Brexit advice from them here. (Added 1 Feb 18).
96. @koebenhavns_uni publish “The economic consequences for the Danish fishery following the UK’s decision to leave the EU” and “Modeling the potential impacts of two BREXIT scenarios on the Danish agricultural sectors” (Added 1 Feb 18).
97. @EU_Commission “Brexit preparedness” (Notices from the depts of the EC on the legal and practical implications of the withdrawal of the UK from the EU). (Added 2 Feb 18).
98. @uk_tpo published “Which Manufacturing Sectors are Most Vulnerable to Brexit?” h/t @ma_cataluna. @RobertsDan reports “Brexit could cut manufacturing exports by a third, experts warn”. (Added 7 Feb 18)
99. @EU_Commission published “Transitional Arrangements in the Withdrawal Agreement” (Added 7 Feb 18).
100. @FTIConsulting publish “Brexit In the Boardroom” (Feb 9). They “spoke with over 2,500 leaders of large businesses across four major EU economies (France, Germany, Spain and the UK)”. (Added 13 Feb 18).
101. @NFUtweets and many others(11 Feb 18) — “UK food & farming sector unites to highlight impact on home-grown production” (Added 13 Feb 18).
102. UK Govt unpublished Brexit analysis (7 Feb 18)— “Hard Brexit would cost public finances £80bn, says secret analysis” (Added 13 Feb 18)
103. “Japanese ambassador warns Prime Minister of Brexit ‘high stakes’ (8 Feb 18) after talks” and “Honda will leave the UK if Government fails to secure access to EU market” (10 Feb 18). (Added 13 Feb 18)
104. “Brexit concerns for Welsh ports as Carwyn Jones makes maritime border call” (12 Feb 18). (Added 13 Feb 18)
105. Irish Dept of Foreign Affairs and Trade have a dedicated Brexit website (12 Feb 18). “Up to date information on the Brexit negotiations”. (Added 13 Feb 18).
106. Irish Dept of Business, Enterprise & Innovation publish “Ireland and the Impacts of Brexit” (14 Feb18) with a response from @irishcongress (15 Feb18). (Added 15 Feb 18).
107. @edballs (and others) publish “Time for Clarity: The Views of British Business on The Path to Brexit” (Feb 18). (Added 16 Feb 18).
108. @AllieRenison for @The_IoD — “Customising Brexit A hybrid option for a UK-EU trade framework” (Feb 18). (Added 16 Feb 18).
109. @EU_Commission publish “Negotiating documents on Article 50 negotiations with the United Kingdom” (Feb 22) (Added 26 Feb 18).
110. @hayward_katy and @DPhinnemore publish “The Northern Ireland/Ireland Border, Regulatory Alignment and Brexit” (Added 26 Feb 18).
111. @EU_Commission publish “Draft Withdrawal Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community”. (Added 28 Feb 18).
112. @CommonsBEIS publish ‘Car industry Brexit negotiations an ‘exercise in damage limitation’ (Mar 01) -”On the key issue of the future regulatory regime, the report does not identify any potential benefits from divergence from the EU, only costs”. (Added 03 Mar 18).
113. @CommonsEUexit publish “Government’s EU Exit Analysis: Cross Whitehall Briefing, with a single annex removed on the grounds of negotiation sensitivity” (8 Mar). (Added 12 Mar 18).
114. @UKTradeForum published “POST-BREXIT TRADE AGREEMENTS: FACTORY-ING IN THE NORTH EAST” 10 April 18. by @ilonaserwicka h/t @fascinatorfun (Added 11 Apr 18).
115. From @northeastlep – “Single market access essential to protect North East economy after Brexit”. Published 4 June. (Added 5 June).
116. Airbus no deal Brexit impact assessment. Published 21 June.
117. National Audit Office publish “The Customs Declaration Service: a progress update” (28 June 2018).
118. Sky News Brexit Forensics — “Councils prepare for civil unrest amid Brexit uncertainty” More Brexit Forensics here. (added 28 August 2018)
119. British Medical Association publish “Dangers of a No Deal Brexit”. (added 28 August 2018).
120. UK Govt publish first batch of preparations for a No Deal Brexit. (added 28 August 2018).
121. “How to prepare if the UK leaves the EU without a deal”. UK Govt no deal Brexit Govt papers. (Added 1 Oct 2018).
122. National Audit Office report “The UK border: preparedness for EU exit”. (Added 24 Oct 2018).