Climate Crisis: Envisioning a Solution
An embodied vision of reaching carbon neutral.
If we are to be energized and effective in dealing with the climate crisis, we must have a realistic vision of a path forward. We need to envision a solution to the situation blocking effective movement today. Once we have a clear vision, it then becomes possible to start taking effective steps one by one. It is my intention that this be the first in a series of articles laying out such a vision. The elements of this vision, explained more below, are as follows:
1. Engaging the hearts and minds of the people.
2. The political solution.
3. The economic solution.
4. The technological solution.
5. The physical solution.
6. The social solution.
The Situation
The United Nations has issued a series of reports this year showing that the world is failing to move effectively towards solving the climate crisis, despite agreements reached in a series of climate change conferences. Indeed, global greenhouse gas emissions increased at an average of 1.6% each year between 2008 and 2017, and have set a new record high in 2018.
According to the most recent of these reports, if we are to keep our world from crossing the catastrophic threshold of 1.5° C. above pre-industrial temperatures, global emissions will need to fall 55% between now and 2030. The U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has laid out in stark terms the consequences of failure to accomplish this goal.
This is obviously a deeply concerning state of affairs. But we cannot allow ourselves to be paralyzed by the seeming impossibility of reaching this goal. Instead, it is essential that we become energized. We should also remember that even if we don’t reach that 55% reduction over the next 11 years, the more we can accomplish, the less bad it will be for the decades to follow.
The problem we are facing is global, but most of the solutions must be implemented by countries, states, cities, communities, or companies. Therefore I will focus on the United States. What we need to do in the U.S. is very different from what needs to be done in India or in Brazil.
There have been various books and articles that have laid out plans that could lead us to being carbon neutral. One particularly well-defined one is Project Drawdown, available as a book and also a website. These are helpful in the very way I mentioned above — they create a vision for a potential successful implementation of carbon neutrality. However, while giving technological solutions, they generally fail to deal with the very real questions of how we get from where we are to the future they point towards.
In order to provide a realistic and workable vision, we need to see all the elements of this transition. It is not enough to say that we can replace coal- or oil-burning power plants with solar or wind, at a great savings in cost, human health, and reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. What are the barriers to making that change? How can they be overcome? How long will it take?
The pathway I show here may seem hopelessly optimistic at some points. I am well aware that it is far from certain that we can achieve it. But if we have no vision of where we need to go or how we might get there, we are even less likely to arrive in a timely manner than if we reject a possible pathway because it seems too hard to accomplish. We are called on to rise to this occasion. You are not alone. Together, we can make this happen.
We have seen time and again how, when faced with real crises, humans have been able to accomplish things that seem miraculous in retrospect. Sometimes a great leader appears, a Gandhi or Martin Luther King, Jr. or Nelson Mandela, who is able to hold and express the vision and focus people’s collective energy past seemingly insurmountable obstacles towards the goal. Sometimes a common challenge, such as World War II, leads a country to engage in shared sacrifice and effort that is startling in its power and effectiveness. We have seen how a single book, Silent Spring, led to the environmental movement and the banning of DDT. In other cases, it may be a small number of dedicated activists, such as the abolitionists who led to ending slavery in Canada in 1793 and in England 40 years later. In the words of Margaret Mead, “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it’s the only thing that ever has.”
Elements of the Vision
In this first article, these elements will be explained only briefly. Subsequent articles will explore each in more detail. But here they are:
1. Engaging the hearts and minds of the people.
Currently, people in the United States are divided in their opinions on the climate crisis. There has been a clear movement in recent years towards more recognition of the reality and significance of the climate crisis. A recent poll shows that 38% of American adults see climate change as a crisis, and an equal number see it as a major problem, while 15% see it as a minor problem, and only 8% as not a problem at all. Pew Research Center surveys have seen that since 2013, the percentage of Americans calling global climate change a major threat to our well-being has grown from 40% to 57%. However, only 27% of Republicans share this view, compared with 94% of liberal Democrats.
The energy to force the necessary changes to happen in a short timeframe will come from the recognition of the crisis becoming more widespread among Americans and being seen as a more central issue by Republicans and Independents as well as Democrats.
2. The political solution.
The laws and regulations that maintain our status quo and keep us emitting greenhouse gasses exist across the political landscape, from the federal government to state governments to counties, cities, municipalities, and unincorporated areas. Moving towards carbon neutral will require changing many of these. Municipal building codes, public utility commissions, farming practices, gasoline taxes — these represent just a very few of the thousands of laws, rules, and regulations that will need to change. Making these changes will require vision, wisdom, and action from politicians and bureaucrats alike.
3. The economic solution.
Currently, providing new electric power by building windmills or solar is cheaper than by building an oil- or coal-fired plant. However, there are currently 400 coal-powered electric plants in the U.S. and 1,076 oil-powered plants. Building replacements for all of these (not to mention the 1,793 natural gas-powered electric plants) will be a tremendously expensive proposition. Where will the money for this transition come from? Likewise, what will happen with the 272 million gasoline-powered vehicles in the United States? Even if starting tomorrow, only electric vehicles were sold, can we wait a decade for all the present vehicles to be retired? What will happen to the 168,000 gasoline stations in the United States? There are a great many such questions that must be answered.
4. The technological solution.
This has actually been the most written about. Still, even among people passionate about dealing with the climate crisis, there are major disagreements. 20% of America’s electricity comes from carbon-free nuclear power, but those plants are aging. What role should nuclear energy play going forward? What role should carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) play? So far, CCS is not really an economic solution. We need better methods of energy storage. Certainly, a crash program in finding and developing new technologies seems essential to our rapid progress in decarbonizing our future.
5. The physical solution.
As even the brief examples given above show, arriving at a zero-carbon status will require huge amounts of physical transformation in our country. Decommissioning over 2000 power plants, replacing hundreds of millions of cars and trucks, replacing hundreds of millions of coal, oil, and gas home heating systems with heat pumps or electric heating, dealing with the 135 gasoline refineries, building and finding locations for and installing millions of solar panels and huge numbers of windmills, and on and on — all of these have huge repercussions. If we are smelting and forging steel for new electric cars, is that producing more greenhouse gasses than the cars are saving? What is the carbon impact of the necessary mining, manufacturing, transportation, and other elements of carrying out a plan to decarbonize our country?
6. The social solution.
Carrying out a plan of this magnitude will have huge impact on many if not most Americans. Millions of current jobs will end up by going away or being changed, while millions of new jobs will need to be created and filled. However, it is far from a painless process for a coal miner in Kentucky to become a solar installer or find and hold some other carbon-free job.
Also, as the Green New Deal points out, “climate change, pollution, and environmental destruction have exacerbated systemic racial, regional, social, environmental, and economic injustices (referred to in this preamble as ‘‘systemic injustices’’) by disproportionately affecting indigenous peoples, communities of color, migrant communities, deindustrialized communities, depopulated rural communities, the poor, low-income workers, women, the elderly, the unhoused, people with disabilities, and youth.” The enormous transformation of our entire economy and infrastructure needs to be carried out in a way that heals these injustices rather than exacerbating them.
Well, this is the overview. This is the journey we must take together. The clearer the image we have of this journey, the more likely it is that we will be successful in traversing it as quickly as possible, while minimizing false starts, suffering along the way, and harmful divisions that keep us from working effectively together. Follow me for more articles that fill out the six steps above in more detail.
