Do All Western Conference Playoff Teams Play the Same?

How many HOF’s are in this picture?

In the aftermath of an all-star weekend that left more questions than answers, LeBron James’ postgame reflections cut through the usual noise, hinting at a deeper trend within the NBA’s gameplay evolution.

He pointed out a reality, suggesting the all-stars game lack of defense and freedom of movement on offense in the NBA reflects a broader shift in the league’s gameplay ethos than just an “all-star game” problem.

With defense taking a backseat and an emphasis on free-flowing offense at the forefront, it begs the question: Has the league’s offensive strategy become the same across all teams?

The answer is no — but as usual, it’s more nuanced than that.

Let’s dig a little deeper into the numbers.

Stats courtesy of centersculture.com — terrific resource of live and up-to-date advanced statistics in an easy to consume manner. Don’t think I would have been able to visualize this as clearly without it.

I’m focusing solely on the 10 teams expected to make the Western Conference playoffs and play-in spots.

On average, these teams execute 72.5% of their total plays in the half-court.

Let’s delve deeper into the frequency with which their half-court plays are broken down:

Now, let’s examine each of these eight play types more closely to understand where each team excels.

Pick and Roll

Observations

1. The Thunder are by far the best team in the West, both in terms of frequency and efficiency in pick-and-rolls.
2. The Lakers are also a high pick-and-roll team but have been middling in terms of efficiency. I’d imagine these numbers would improve with a fully healthy Lakers roster.
3. Surprisingly enough, from an overall league perspective, the Thunder, while #1 here among western playoff teams, are only 10th in the league overall for pick-and-roll plays per game. And besides Houston and Portland — the rest of the teams in the top 10 of pick and roll frequencies are in the East.
4. Seven of the teams in the top 10 for pick-and-roll frequency are under .500! Obviously a ton of other factors here, but interesting.
5. The Warriors are the most anti-pick-and-roll team in the league, only ahead of the Kings in terms of frequency but very inefficient in these plays too.

Great video showing how OKC is inverting their pick and rolls for a more modern appraoch

Spot Up

Observations:

1. Most teams in the West range from 21–27% of their plays coming from spot-up shots.
2. The Clippers have the highest efficiency among these teams in the West. Minnesota gets the most spot-up looks of any other Western Conference playoff team, but their efficiency is near the bottom of their peers, only matching the Kings in terms of points per possession.
3. OKC also looks impressive here — they’re very efficient on their spot-up shots, which account for a little over a quarter of their offensive looks.
4. The Pelicans are surprisingly efficient on off-ball screen plays, ranking 5th in efficiency but only 11th in terms of attempts. This makes sense when you consider players like Hawkins and Trey executing those plays.

Off Ball Screens

Observations:

1. The Warriors remain the leaders of off-ball screens and scoring — they more than double the next team (the Timberwolves) in terms of frequency and are highly efficient in all these plays. This makes sense, as their entire offense is predicated on creating open shots for Klay and Steph through off-ball screens.
2. Moreover, this strategy accounts for less than 5% of all teams’ total plays in the Western Conference playoff race. Surprisingly, I expected the Kings to rank higher, yet only 1.9% of their offensive looks come from off-ball screens.

Cuts

Observations:

1. Scoring on cuts is a very efficient play for all teams — this makes sense as it often results in a good look for a player cutting to the rim. The Warriors’ game plan is evident here — they excel in off-ball screens and cuts to the basket, which drive a lot of their offensive actions. They rank #1 in terms of frequency and are very efficient in these plays too, despite being lower in terms of points per possession (PPP) compared to others in the West.
2. The Suns are the most efficient team in the league when it comes to cuts, but these only account for 6.8% of their total plays.
3. The Thunder are very well-balanced — they’re efficient in almost every play type covered in these graphics, ranking just behind the Suns.

Isolation

Observations:

1. The Clippers are the kings of isolation — a hallmark of any team led by James Harden over the last decade. He and Kawhi propel the Clippers to a clear #1 in terms of frequency and are only slightly behind the Thunder in terms of efficiency.
2. Unsurprisingly, with both Luka and Kyrie, the Mavericks are second in the West in isolation frequency, and this is one of their most efficient plays. Grant Williams recently suggested that it’s all about watching those two play, especially after being traded to the Hornets — perhaps the Mavs are onto something instead of giving the ball to Grant.
3. Phoenix is surprisingly inefficient in isolation, ranking 18th in the league despite executing the 6th highest number of isolation plays in the NBA.
4. A noteworthy point is that only 5% of the Warriors’ plays come from isolation, yet they are extremely efficient in these situations. This highlights some of the criticism regarding how the Warriors utilize their personnel, especially in Draymond’s absence.

Kawhi is the best ISO scorer in the NBA

Post-Up

Observations:

1. Ah, the post up. A lost arc. Except the two teams that post up more frequently than any other team in the league were the two teams in the Western Conference last year — this makes sense.
2. But overall, the post-up isn’t a significant play for many teams. The Nuggets are the clear outlier because they have everything run through Jokic and he’s the best player on the planet. But even then, it just makes up nearly 8% of their overall plays too.
3. Once again, OKC is super efficient on post-ups, but they barely go to it accounting for only 1.5% of their plays.

Handoff / Dribble Hand Off (DHO)

Observations:

1. The Kings have adopted hand-offs/DHOs more than any other team, and by a significant margin, with 10% of their plays involving this action. Watching any Kings game makes this clear — their offense relies on giving the ball to Sabonis in the high post and using him as a hub to coordinate dribble hand-offs with Fox, creating efficient offensive opportunities.
2. The Nuggets, with Jokic, are similarly effective in this action, as are the Warriors when they utilize Draymond in a comparable role. These teams are more efficient than the Kings in these sets, although they do not use them as frequently.
3. The Warriors rank #1 in the league in terms of efficiency in these plays but are 14th in terms of frequency league-wide.

Great example of Sabonis/Kings dribble handoffs

Transition

Observations

1. OKC excels in transition — 20% of their plays occur in transition, where they score 1.18 points per possession. Combined with their high proficiency in pick-and-rolls and isolation, they appear to be a formidable offensive team with numerous strategies for the postseason.
2. The old jokes about the Lakers might not be as prominent as before, but they also excel in transition despite being led by a 39 year old LeBron.
3. Phoenix ranks 24th in the league in terms of transition opportunities, which aligns with their roster of mid-range isolation scorers. However, up to this point in the season, they are the #1 team in the league in transition efficiency.
4. The Kings are a high-volume transition team but are less efficient than their peers in this aspect.
5. The Warriors don’t transition much, and for good reason — they’re not very effective at it.
6. The Pelicans have a balanced approach to their offense, without a significant lean towards any particular type of play call.

Context, Summary, and The Playoffs

With around 30 games left in the season, we’re entering the home stretch before the postseason, where contrasting styles, narratives, and gameplay come under increased scrutiny.

While our focus has been on offense — only half the battle (let me know if you’re interested in a defensive analysis!) — it’s generally observed that fouls become more frequent, isolation plays gain prominence, transition opportunities become less reliable, and experience plays a crucial role in the post-season.

OKC boasts a diverse offensive arsenal, scoring efficiently in transition, isolation, and pick-and-rolls, though their youth could be a factor.

Golden State continues to execute a familiar offense that could become a significant threat in the postseason, especially with Kuminga’s emergence. The Kings, like the Pelicans, are competent but not overwhelmingly dominant in any particular offensive set (but the Pelicans have a good record v. over .500 teams).

Phoenix excels in isolation and transition scoring, backed by significant playoff experience from their two main stars, unlike OKC.

The Clippers and Dallas, with their mastery of isolation plays, are poised to challenge opponents in the postseason with this style, which could prove difficult to counter. The addition of Gafford and Washington could enhance Dallas’s pick-and-roll capabilities.

The Nuggets’ strategy revolves around post-ups and cuts, utilizing Jokic as the central hub. The Lakers, despite skewed numbers due to injuries, have shown strengths in transition. The Timberwolves excel in off-ball cuts and have dynamic scorers, but their reliance on defense to elevate them in the Western Conference could be compromised by inconsistent shooting from role players and the absence of a “dominant” offensive set, potentially explaining their fourth-quarter struggles this season.

As we head into a postseason in a league where parity is arguably at its peak, the impending defensive and offensive battles will surely make for an exciting climax to the season.

Check out my NBA newsletter, ‘The NBA Librarian Weekly’ where I curate and summarize the best content I find on the NBA every week.

Subscribe | The NBA Librarian Weekly