Why The Sacramento Kings Are Better Than…The Mavericks

As a part of a series (and a way to pass the time before the NFL starts), I’m going to compare Sacramento’s playoff chances to some others in the West. For reference, this series will assume that the following teams (in no particular order) will make the playoffs:

• Warriors (Basically the same team that just won the ‘ship)
• Spurs (Improved, though older)
• Clippers (Much improved on paper, though number of neck tattoos has decreased)
• Grizzlies (Lost Koufos, added Brandan Wright and a few neck tattoos)
• Rockets (Lost some interesting role players in exchange for a few DUIs)
• Thunder (Basically the same team…just added a healthy[?] Durant. Also, I can’t help but laugh when I see Dion Waiters on that depth chart.)

Also, I’m going to show rosters broken down by “position” even though I realize that positions are only marginally real. I’ll analyze with that in mind, but visually it’s just easier to go by position.

You can’t really talk about the Mavs offseason without talking about DeAndre Jordan, but I’m going to try! Here’s how the rosters break down:

Point Guards

Deron Williams is one of two big acquisitions by the Mavs this offseason. I loved Williams when he was in Utah, but I don’t think it’s outlandish to say that he was overall underwhelming as a Net, the last two seasons being particularly unremarkable. I’m torn on my opinion of his outlook, but I’m sure that his success, or lack thereof, will largely be an indicator of the Mavs success as a team. Gun to my head, I don’t think he will be anything special. My guess is that his numbers will improve to about ‘12/’13 levels and he will ultimately be a positive influence. (Keep in mind, he has a $5.62 player option next year, so he likely won’t be primarily motivated by money this year.)

Other than Williams, Devin Harris, Raymond Felton, and J.J. Barea round out the Mavs’ PG group. There’s definitely a good amount of collective NBA experience in that bunch, but Raymond Felton is more or less a joke, J.J. Barea is going to struggle to get playing time among a group like this, and Devin Harris is good, but not great at this point in his career. To me, outside of Deron Williams’ upside, this group mostly makes me shrug.

With that in mind, I like the Sacramento’s point guard group much better. Mostly because Rondo has something to prove if he wants to get paid again, Collison has arguable NBA starter-level talent, and the Seth Curry/David Stockton duo is nothing if not interesting.

Bottom line: Rondo and Williams cancel each other out, Collison is better than Felton and Devin Harris, and I’d rather have Curry and Stockton over Barea ten times out of ten, even if it’s just for pedigree’s sake.

Shooting Guards

This matchup was fairly easy to call. The Mavs big move other than Deron Williams was Wes Matthews. As we all know, Matthews was a really good player with Portland before he got hurt, but the fact of the matter is, he had a pretty serious injury, and no one can really say for sure what he’s going to be like when he starts playing again. That said, let’s give him the benefit of the doubt and say he comes out just as good as he was in Portland. Cool, good for him, but I believe this is a make or break year for Ben McLemore, and with the pressure on, I think he’s going to have a nice little break out year. Will he be as good as Matthews, maybe not, but I do think it will be close.

The real reason the Kings win this one is depth. Marco Belinelli is better than John Jenkins 100% of the time, and that’s that.

Small Forwards

I’m not the first one to say this, but I think by the end of this season we’re all going to be able to agree that Chandler Parsons is not that good. Well, let me rephrase that, he’s not as good as his contract would have you believe. He’ll average a little more than 15 points a game (coincidentally that’s about how many millions he’ll make), grab a few rebounds and assists. He’ll also shoot a curiously mediocre percentage from the free throw line and a good percentage from three. Rudy Gay, in comparison, is a better passer, rebounder, and scorer. He has been absolutely inefficient in his career, I’m not overlooking that at all, but I truly think he’s ‘grown up,’ if you will. His stats seem to indicate he’s become a smarter player, and I don’t think Team USA would have brought him in otherwise.

Lastly, as much as I love Justin Anderson and what he showed in Summer League, he’s still a rookie, and I have to take Omri Casspi’s awkward scoring ability and Caron Butler’s experience over him.

Power Forwards

This is where things get complicated in terms of positions. Will the Kings play Boogie Cousins at PF? Or, will Willie Cauley-Stein, Kousta Koufos, and Boogie be more or less interchangeable? It’s really hard to say, but for sake of discussion, let’s say DeMarcus is going to play a lot of 4 and WCS and Koufos will primarily play the 5.

DeMarcus is on the way up, Dirk, as much as I love him, is winding down his illustrious career. But still, Dirk and DeMarcus are on a similar level of dominance, even if they’re moving in different directions, and with that in mind, I can’t say that the Mavs’ power forward squad is any better or worse than the Kings’. Quincy Acy is very ok and Eric Moreland will not make much of an impact, though I am excited about his potential. As a Stanford fan, I love Dwight Powell, though I’m not sure he has much of a future in the NBA. Jeremy Evans is fine, and Brandon Ashley is an interesting prospect, but again, I can’t imagine them having a discernible impact.

Centers

This is where the Kings really pull away from the Mavs. The ceiling for Willie Cauley-Stein’s defensive potential and Kosta’s…size/baldness is clearly much higher than that of Zaza Pachulia and Satnam Singh Bhamara. Look Mavs fans, if you want to have a showdown of large Indian men, we can do that. Ours just recently shattered a backboard…Shaquille-esque.

This lack of depth at the center position is obviously the result of missing out on DeAndre Jordan (I tried so hard not to mention him!), but I really think it’s going to be an issue. Even if teams play small against the Mavs, Zaza and Dirk aren’t exactly able to get up and down.

Bottom line, if this Mavs team had secured DeAndre with masterful use of emojis and tents and actually being a good team, this would be a much different discussion. Unfortunately for them, that didn’t happen, and whether or not it was fair is a different conversation. (Not even going to get into coaching because this has already gone on so long!)

The 2015/16 Kings are better than the Mavs.