Notes on the Terrible Coming War
As I write this, it very much appears that there will be a war between the US state and the Iranian state.
Predicting the future is a sucker’s game — by the time you read this, the threat may have passed. It seems, though, that we are currently in one of those eras where war will be seen as inevitable in retrospect — no divergence after the death of Bismark could have averted WWI. No divergence after the end of WWI could have averted WWII. So, even if Father Time laughs at my rough draft of the future, some of this article will retain usefulness. That is my intention, at least.
In the event that the US declares war on Iran, Russia and China will be faced with a choice: to intervene or not intervene. China buys from both Saudi Arabia and Iran and will be caught between them. Russia and Iran have closer relations, though Russia is an energy exporter and would have less clear financial incentive to involve themselves. Both powers face the choice of either risking nuclear war, or risking no longer being seen as credibly able to project power.
I will be assuming no direct intervention by either Russia or China, but allowing for military and non-military aid. I am assuming this for two reasons: firstly, I find it more likely; secondly, in the event of full Russian and Chinese involvement (the involvement of one will likely open the door to…
